There is no such thing as a lock in sports… or competitive eating — but at the annual Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, Joey Chestnut comes close.
The American is a 13-time winner, beaten just once in the last 14 rounds. He comes off a record-setting performance behind closed doors in 2020, but the crowds are back in Brooklyn, which could affect his performance.
Chestnut is the overwhelming favorite to win this year’s edition of the contest, according to the online sportsbook. There is little value in backing him outright, but there are over 10 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest markets to scoff down.
Will Joey Chestnut Win?
We don’t need to spend long thinking about this one. Joey Chestnut has a mortgage on the niche sport contest and the -1600 odds reflect as much.
His only recent defeat came in 2015 when Matt Stonie came out of nowhere to eat 62 hot dogs to Chestnut’s 60. It was an upset for the ages and put an end to the eight-year winning streak.
Joey Chestnut next week pic.twitter.com/NaVbOd8c8m
— Edon Krso (@Kingkrso20) June 27, 2021
However, despite an off performance, Chestnut would fire back the following year by downing 70, compared to Stonie’s 53. The rightful champion set a record mark of 73 dogs in qualifying, so either his technique improved or his stomach expanded over the course of a year.
Chestnut has since set totals of 72, 74, 71 and 75. Therefore, we don’t think there’s anyone that can stop him. Betting against Chestnut offers +750 odds, but that’s still poor value against the all-time champion.
Total Dogs Eaten by Chestnut
Conditions were different when Chestnut set a record 75 hot dogs eaten last year. There was no crowd, and although it shouldn’t make much difference, the results beg to differ.
Women’s champion Miki Sudo almost smashed her record by eating 48½ — a meaty improvement of 17½ more than the previous year.
Senior vice president of restaurants for Nathan’s Famous, James Walker, is happy to see crowds back.
“It is encouraging to hold this event live for fans, who last year were unable to celebrate July 4 as they traditionally do,” Walker told AMNY. “Next year, we hope to return to the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues, where we have held this event for decade after decade.”
With fans back at the event, we expect Chestnut to eat less. Bettors get excellent value as Hot Dog Eating Contest odds have the line at a generous 73½ HDBs — competitive-eating slang for Hot Dogs with Buns. (Buns must fully be consumed in order to count.)
He set the previous record in 2018 when eating 74 dogs, but we don’t think his preparation has been as ideal. He managed only 71 in 2019, which is where we think he will finish around.
That he won in 2010 with only 54 HDBs shows how far this competition has come. Chestnut’s ability to down the dogs in 10 minutes doesn’t get enough attention, but we think he will struggle to reach the gastronomical heights of previous years.
Under 73½ pays a generous -105 with bookmakers. He is also -200 to eat between 61-80 HDBs, another positive-value proposition.
The 81-100 range pays +200, but experts have said humans have a maximum of 85, and we don’t think the 80 barrier will be broken anytime soon.
Pick: Under 73½ (-105)
Chestnut vs Female Winner
There is a market with odds for Joey Chestnut to eat twice as many hot dogs as the female winner.
It has been done before, when Chestnut chowed down 71 hot dogs compared to Sudo’s 31 in 2019, but it’s a rare occurrence. Sudo ate 48½ last year, and we don’t see Chestnut doing the impossible and eating 97.
🌭 SEVEN STRAIGHT TITLES 🌭
Miki Sudo dominated the field, setting a women’s record by eating 48.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes 🤯 pic.twitter.com/dDdAnTJyla
— ESPN (@espn) July 4, 2020
In the past decade since women competed at the event, Chestnut has only once managed to double his winning female counterpart.
Surprisingly, bettors can back the women and fade Chestnut at a +125 odds. We can’t stomach the -165 price for Chestnut to eat twice what the women’s winner eats and think he might be a touch overrated this year.
Pick: No (+125)
Learn More About Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest
- How Many Hot Dogs Are Too Many Hot Dogs? A Lot According To Chestnut and Sudo
- 2022 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Props & Futures
How Many Dogs in the First Minute
The 37-year-old likes to go hard early, so we’re confident he can eat over 10½ HDBs in the first minute.
It won’t be an easy feat, but he typically starts well and fades late, not surprising given the nature of eating contests.
There is plenty of confidence in Over 10½, which is paying -140. We think he comes out humming before hitting the wall around the 60 mark — so add this option to your Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting card.
