Flash:
Welcome to the BetUS golf, tennis and horse racing channel. It is major number two, we’re off to Tulsa, Oklahoma. Southern Hills is the venue. It is golf’s second major, as I said, and this is the one when we used to be thinking that it was going to be a high number, anyone can win it. We do see long shots winning it. And I’ll tell you what, I’ve got so much information. I’ve got two of the best guests from either side of the pond. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook so I’d to invite you to subscribe. Also, I’d like you to ring the bell because that means you’ll never miss any content again. And that means we’ve got the French Open coming up. We got the Preakness, which is also leg number two of the Triple Crown. And as we sit here now it’s the PGA Championships. Tiger’s involved, but he’s not sitting at the head of proceedings.
Flash:
And if you are on social media, then please follow @BetUSTV because there’s no content that we will cover that you will not be singled out, invited to not miss a thing. Let me give you my two absolute experts from the European Tour and also the PGA. From England, I’ve got Craig Edwards and from the West Coast of the United States, coming off, these two boys are that hot, you could take their hats off and fry an egg on them. One of them, you could definitely fry two eggs. So I’ve got Craig, how are you? So you knew I was talking about you, Craig. James also coming off an unbelievable couple of weeks. Craig we will come to you first because last week it was a diabolical competition in the Byron Nelson with over 25 to 25 under winning it. 17 under wasn’t even in the top 20, but you had the winner 125 to one.
Craig:
Yeah, it was, it was a nice little touch. It’s been a barren few months. You know my style. It’s high variance. And yeah, I don’t know why anyone that’s playing this week unless they have been injured or out of form would’ve played last week to be honest with you. I think if they needed confidence or they’d been injured, then play it by all means. But if you’ve had an iffy week last week and you come in here, it’s not the greatest preparation. So yeah, it’s totally different this week. It might be five under wins if it’s going to play like the US open.
Flash:
Let’s hope so.
Craig:
Yeah. I definitely hope so for my picks.
Flash:
Yeah. Well, just for being a golf fan, I absolutely detest it. I’ve sent James messages, they should be banned for 15 years. That type of golf is nonsense. Full sense of security. We want to see them struggle. And listen, some of us would’ve got birdies on some of them holes, obviously you’d get more than me, James, what did you make of it? And how do you think it holds them instead for this week?
James
I wish they would just eradicate that golf course from the rotation. It is by far the worst venue. Unfortunately, I think they have a couple more years that we have to deal with that. But putting that and I totally agree with Craig, it gives you nothing unless you’re trying to build some confidence and that’s probably why JT was there. He hasn’t won a long time. That’s probably why Smith was there. He’s still trying to build up to that form he had, and then they get out-done by K.H. Lee so that has to just really kill anything that you were trying to grab before.
James
So now you’re going to actually have to outdo real golfers and not to diminish K.H. Lee or anything, Craig, great hit by the way, but K.H. Lee’s not going to be the guy you’re going to have to be. You’re going to be Scottie Scheffler. You’re going to be Collin Morikawa. You’re going to have to beat even a Brooks Koepka is going to be a tough test. So why play there? I don’t know, especially before you’re going to play a difficult golf course, but now we have a real test and I love this course, just to flybys and watching it, I cannot wait to see this thing on TV. It reminds me a lot of Augusta which obviously is the most beautiful property in the world. So I’m really excited to dig in and try and see what we can find. I love this card too. I love the odds. I love everything about this week, I got to be honest with you guys.
Flash:
Yeah. I don’t blame you. And then what we’re going to do is a little bit is different to normally because we go through attenders, top 10, top 20, we’re going to talk about what is in front of all the players. So first of all, this has been renovated. 2007, Tiger wins and there was only a handful of players under par then. Now they’ve done away with the rough around the greens which means the ball’s going to roll off and then you’re going to need someone to maybe have 25,30 yards back up and down just for par. Par will be your friend. Craig, 7400 yards up to around 76 and a half hundred yards tells me that does a player give up yardage for position to make sure they go into these tiny greens compared to the norm? And so they’re going to have to give up something. So the mentality of a player coming into this golf tournament?
Craig:
Yeah, exactly. I mean, I think you’re definitely going to hopefully have to be quite strategic with your approach, because like you say, you’re going to have to hit them greens when you can and you’re going to need a player that can chip. I mean, reading the reports tonight, just saying that there’s no way you’re going to be putting off the green. So you need players with soft hands that can chip. And I think that’s quite clear even for the best players. If you just get on the wrong side of the roll off, you’re going to be off the green and that’s been the biggest part of the renovations by the sounds of it is that before they were getting caught up in the thick, rough around the green, so people were just firing. Now it’s a different golf course. And then like you say, Flash, it’s going to be strategic and it’s hopefully changed it for the better. I mean, I don’t like to see the extra yardage. I don’t think it really needed it but I like see golf played strategically.
Flash:
James, some of the top golfers have all been left to right over the last six to eight months. We looked at this course, maybe eight weeks ago, we were chatting away. We want a right to left up. But now we’re looking at crosswinds from either directions, I think it’s on Thursday, we have it off the right. And then on Friday we have it off the left and in Oklahoma, the weather can be anything.
James
Yeah. I mean they’re calling for maybe some thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. Look, I’m done trying to be a weatherman because I always get it wrong. I need a meteorologist degree instead of my political science degree to figure some of these tournaments out. But ultimately, I really think, and I agree with Craig, it’s going to come down to those those greenside complexes. His name is Perry Maxwell, the designer of this golf course. He’s the father of the greens at Augusta. We talk about Alister McKenzie, he was tee to green but Maxwell had a lot of influence on the Augusta greens and just look at the flybys, it’s shaved so tight and you’re going to have to hit chips from very uncomfortable positions.
James
And I think it’s a lot different with the around the green stats are distorted as well because players don’t play these kind of golf courses around the green week in and week out. So to me I’m throwing all that stuff out and it’s a completely different stroke when you’re in a little bit of Bermuda or some fescue compared to a complete bare rye where you have to clip it perfect. So, I think those stats, I’m just throwing out. Where you’re going to come into play is hitting the right portion of the greens because watching a couple of clips from the senior PGA tour, which we can get into a little bit, I think we’ve found some things.
James
There are hitting the greens in the wrong spot and this is bouncing off and going into these little collection areas. And it was brutal, minus eight won. I actually think they’re going to play this thing shorter. I’m not sure if you saw the routing of the holes but some tee boxes cross and on Thursday and Friday it’s going to be so windy. I think they’re going to push a lot of those tees up to make sure they get these rounds in. I think we’re going to see not quite as long of a golf course at least for those two days but ultimately it’s going to be the padding and I really think position off the tee is going to matter a lot.
Flash:
So are we still looking at that positional impatient golfer.
James
Yeah.
Flash:
So because everyone was coming in thinking, oh, all the bombers are going to love it because they’re obviously going to be able to go in and hold these greens but then you think to yourself, okay, so now if it’s dry and it’s fast and they’ve got runoffs, could we be looking at maybe some longer odds like Tommy Fleetwood, who was brought up in the wind obviously the west coast of England?
James
Yeah.
Flash:
Matt Fitzpatrick, who obviously comes from Sheffield and it’s built on Seven Hills, constantly windy. Rory McIlroy because obviously in Ireland it’s even windy on a clear day. But the patience and the mentality, James, it’s got to be that they know that it’s a four day event and they cannot win it on day one.
James
Yeah. And I also think we saw Tiger. I think this is a perfect example of the way Tiger and Scottie Scheffler attacked Augusta compared to everyone else. And I always think about that chip that Scheffler made to basically closed that thing out where he went low, he banged it into the green side, went in, boom, dropped it. Cam Smith had the exact same trip and he went high with it, had no chance to get it anywhere close. We saw Tiger taking little 7 irons and 5 irons around the greens, keeping the ball down and then does that not just play perfectly into all the guys that you just mentioned including obviously Shane Lowry, who we’re going to talk about later. I mean, if it’s going to blow 20, 30, the Europeans, they have an advantage there because they play the ball all on the ground. They play it low.
James
American golfers play it high in the air. That’s just a fact, right? So I think we’re going to have to look to those guys who can control ball flights. Low ball flights are going to be great for those first two days. Now, Saturday and Sunday, I think they’re going to destroy this golf course personally, unless they go all the way back and they tip this thing out, it’s going to be a little softer. It’s going to be cooler. I think they can get really low on those days but it’s basically going to be survive the first few days and then whoever can go low on Saturday is probably going to be in the driver’s seat.
Flash:
Craig, if the golf course does come up a little bit because I’ve seen conflicting, and this is another thing about Oklahoma, even the people from Oklahoma do not know what the weather is going to be like until they look out their window. It’s almost like because the winds change and they get from the left and the right then a northern front comes in that it’s like, it can change and get gusty within five minutes, they’re telling me. I look at some of these players and I think to myself, just hit the fairway, hit the green. It’s a par 70 with two par fives that if you birdie one of the two, you’re going to be happy. I mean, we’re looking at 70, 71 being a good score for, I mean four 69s, you’re not going to be far away.
Craig:
Definitely not. I mean, unless the bombers prevail then it’s just going to be a case of survival. Like James says first two days, make sure you don’t lose the tournament. And there’s a good point that the course could play a lot easier at the weekend. So, you’re going to need players that can just survive and get the ball around. And also like you said, before the show Flash, not get frustrated. You’re going to have players with just simple expectations playing it one shot at a time.
Craig:
I’m pleased that James said about the Europeans. I think they’ve got a great hand this year. I have struggled to, I could have tipped six Europeans and that worried me because they never win. When it comes down to it, they really rarely win on that side of the pond and definitely the PGA if you’re not Rory. So yeah, I’m pleased. And I do think it should play to suit the Europeans. They hit the ball on the ground. They’ve got the creativity. I like Shane Lowry, like James said there. I think he’s due and this should be a perfect fit. Everything’s in place.
Flash:
But that’s the big thing, James, because I think everyone’s a perfect fit if they play their game. Because as we say, when do we ever see Louis, who is like captain boring, this could be his time. He’s like at 75 to one in places. You got Tommy Fleetwood who obviously just misses parts but if he’s padding for birdie because he hits greens. Par, don’t worry about missing birdies, they won’t get frustrated over that. It’s the big guns for me like your Rahms who think they should be rolling in 16 footers who then think to themselves, and they are like, oh my God, it’s another birdie. Par is like a birdie or maybe 75% of it. And then we look at the likes of Kisner who hits all the fairways, which is a great start. Kevin, no all of these people, we seem to get pushed towards the top of the leaderboard because they’re the big names.
Flash:
And yet the PGA, I remember like Glover, Pat Perez, some of the players you’d never, Woody Austin came second here last time in 2007. Aaron Oberholser, he’d never been seen on a leaderboard in his life. He was one of the only [inaudible 00:12:33]-
James
Still hasn’t by the way.
Flash:
… Park. This is a Thursday and Friday where don’t mess up otherwise you will not see Saturday and Sunday. Now we can keep going on about what we think the winning score is going to be. Craig, let’s start kicking off with these contenders because the contenders are always being captain boring and we will add them as we go. They are always at the top. And obviously Scheffler, no one’s playing like him. I’m not sure that this course is going to suit him. And just in the top 10 is +140, who’d you like?
Craig:
On that list, Flash?
Flash:
Yeah, please on that list.
Craig:
Well, I definitely respect Scheffler because he’s on such an up swing. He produces under pressure. I think Morikawa has totally forgotten for whatever reason at the moment. Dangerous and he can play strategic golf as well. I mean, for me on that list, it would be three of the bottom four, Lowry, Fitzpatrick and Woods. Go to Fitzpatrick, like Lowry, Lowry really should be perfect to sit with Fitzpatrick. I remember him playing last year in the Genesis on fast and firm conditions. I’m really hopefully he should get through the first two days in good shape and give himself a chance for the weekend.
Craig:
So I’ve got to say I brushed straight past Jon Rahm as I always do. I don’t know what he was doing playing in Mexico the other week, all he could do was win and he won but these guys really need to take a leaf out of Tiger’s book. He used to play 15 events and that was it. And soon Jon Rahm is going to have played as many events as Tiger. And he’s like 20 years behind him or something. So, they’ve got to be a bit more shrewd with their time I believe. And Justin Thomas is another one I’ve rushed past him for that reason. They get exposed like James said last week, losing in the end it’s just a little knock to the confidence. They’re not really gaining anything.
Craig:
And that mystique for the opponents is going. I think Shane Lowry is rock solid this week but he just has been for the last year in majors, he’s been rock solid and his putting, it’s the thing that lets him down, but I’m not expecting a good putter to necessarily win this week. It’s going to be that guy that can keep it in play, get up and down. And he seems to fit everything that you’re looking for. I think someone put a stat up that not necessarily a massive believer in it, seven of the last 15 winners of the PGA have been in the top five on the previous there. And that brings in both Lowry and Fitzpatrick there on that list as well. So, I do respect Scottie Scheffler, what he’s doing is just pretty special. I just can’t back him. He’s just too short. Just can’t back him.
Flash:
Yeah, he is. He is too short, but again, we cannot crab him because obviously he’s just going from strength to strength. James, just in the top 10, normally we go top 10 because it’s either someone we fancy will win or we’ve just covering ourself that they just get beaten by maybe one or two, but they’re not going away. Let me quickly give you a stat seven of the last seven winners here. And we could make the stats just bill for ourselves because it’s a different golf course with different idiosyncrasies. But seven of the last seven, the winner has been up there or just around it after 36 holes.
James
Yeah. And I think that’s important. You have to get out to a good start. Coming back in majors against a very good field, obviously the best field we will see all year it is hard. Hard to make ground up against the best players in the world. So you got to start fast. I mean Morikawa, this isn’t necessarily my pick in this range, I would absolutely BetUS has him at 20 to one, just take that. You have to, that needs to be gone, because what’s the difference between him Rory and JT at this point other than he just won a lot more than those guys have a lot bigger tournaments recently. So he needs to be up there with the Rahms and the Schefflers in my opinion for every golf tournament until we see something different, obviously a great Sunday at Augusta.
James
I love Shane Lowry this week. I it’s an outright bet for me. And I love him here. And mostly because his game is transformed just a hair. We always think about Shane Lowry as the guy who’s just chipping and putting around and winning British Opens. His iron game has been absolutely insane. Heritage 8.4 strokes gained on approach, at Valspar 4.5, Players 3.9, Honda 6.8. I mean that’s elite iron play from a guy who we know has the short game to just go ahead and miss every green and still be able to get up and down and win and win a golf tournament. So for me, Lowry at 300 is a bet I’m with you on that. I just have a question about Fitzpatrick, can he win a golf tournament in the States?
James
I mean, we know what he’s done in the European Tour, he has seven wins I believe over there, he won a US Am and he has I believe seven top fifteens and one miss cut, which to players who doesn’t count stateside this year. Why can’t he just win a golf tournament here like he has everywhere else? I don’t understand that. This is not going to be his first time winning a golf tournament. So you’re going to want to get him at top 10 if you want to back him because I just don’t see how you can go from never winning state side to winning a PGA although he has the talent to do so.
James
I like Berger here personally. That’s my favorite bet. I mean we’re Berger at five to one here and he has the exact ball flight you’re looking for for the wind. He has the lowest trajectory on that driver. That little baby cut that just penetrates the wind, that’s really what you’re looking for. And I guess everyone’s forgot about him. I don’t know. I mean last year he had a wonderful year and he has the tools all around to be able to get it done in this situation.
Flash:
Yeah. Again and all the ones we do a top 10, top 20. We also do them to win. So this is just added value because we’re not going to have them at +180 or +500 there with Berger and then they go and win there and you’ve missed out on, can you believe that Berger in some places is +75 to one I’ve had him one.
James
That’s what I got.
Flash:
You know why? Because I went through every single one of the categories on the stats and within the top 15, I think it was maybe top 30 in one was his lowest on tour. Everything pointed to Daniel Berger winning. And you’re getting +500 for him to being top 10. He’s definitely a runner if he’s fit and well, by the way. Well, let’s have a little look at our official picks on this top 10 because these are the ones that we think are going to be up there and you’re going to be able to get decent odds on them to win.
Flash:
It’s Woods at +700 and Lowry at +300. James has also gone for Lowry at +300, Berger +500. I’ve gone Rory at +180 and Fitzpatrick at +400. Fitzpatrick, if he’s going to win one, this will be it because we don’t expect at what six, seven under where maybe we’ll talk about it a little bit later, but if he’s going to win, it’s going to be winning off of a grinding four days because he can chip and par with the very best of them. And coming from Sheffield like Lowry, he’s not from Sheffield, but he loves and was brought up in the wind. Imagination of Woods and the quality and obviously the mentality of Berger, because you could knock on his head and sometimes you’d think that no one was home. So Berger is absolutely made for this providing he doesn’t get off to a rusty start.
James
Real quick, on Tiger, wouldn’t we rather just be late on him and just load up on him at St. Andrews like, Craig-
Flash:
We’ve had this conversation. He’s +5000 at St. Andrews. St. Andrews is a five iron pitch.
James
That’s his spot.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly.
Craig:
Not anymore.
James
Well, to me, obviously we’re all rooting for Tiger and I have a bet later with him on the card, but, and then Craig, I’m just curious, so what is the case for him to actually succeed here on a golf course that is relatively long and he’s still in his rehab. I’m just curious because you didn’t really touch on that much. Because I want to root for him, don’t get me wrong, I just want you to give me a reason to bet him is really why I’m asking this.
Craig:
Yeah, I’ll try and give you a few. So when Tiger was in his earlier career, he was a brilliant player fresh. Off a break he would win something like 66% of the time. Now obviously he’s got the body of an old man now, he’s coming back. So he played at Augusta and I was pretty impressed how he played the first two days and running out of steam was just no surprise whatsoever. And I actually think a month on, if he’s playing, his fitness will have gained something. His short game was already good there. He’s got no expectations. The media’s got no expectations of him. I’ve never been able to get +7,000 on him.
Craig:
And I mean, over here I’ve actually got +14,000 on him. So if you look at it, he’s got no expectation. Now you said about St. Andrews, I don’t think he’s a bomber anymore. So I don’t think he’s even in the mix with St. Andrews this year in a strange way. But here strategic now he has to play within himself. So you look at his swing, he’s almost swinging it like I don’t know what the word is about offending people, but it’s very slow, it’s very [inaudible 00:22:06].
James
Reminds me of Freddie Couples a little bit.
Craig:
Yeah. And I really like it. I’ve been watching him and I’ve been watching him carefully, I can see he’s got soft downs. He appears to have the confidence. I just thought, imagine if he plays the first two days level par one under gains a little confidence like at Augusta but this time he starts to increase in confidence, he’s got no expectations, he’s going to play one ball at a time. One shot a time. He’s not going to be thinking about winning. Tiger won’t. But when the push comes to shove on Sunday, who really believes they can win like Tiger Wood on the seventy second L.
James
Not a single person in that field.
Craig:
So if he ground his way through, I think I am being a bit romantic James, I definitely could come unstuck totally with this one, but I think he’s better suited now to the demands of Southern Hills with it been lengthened. Now, when he won here before I was shocked. I’ll be honest with you, I thought the course was too short for him, too [inaudible 00:23:05]-
James
He is in six errands off the tee.
Flash:
Ended up with a 71, 63 was it?
James
62.
Craig:
Yeah. So Tiger early in his career, he stopped playing Riviera because he couldn’t cope with it. He never played Hilton Head because he couldn’t cope with it. So he was always shrewd with his time like we said there, Justin Thomas and them, they play every week. Tiger would never do that. But now I think say they’ve just widened them areas a little bit, little would give we’re talking about short game. We saw his short game at Augusta. I’ve been watching his chipping this week. Soft hands. I don’t know. I just think low expectations. No one’s got any expectations in him this week but you can bet your life at the bottom of him and the core of him, he won’t be playing unless he thought he still might bloody win. You know what I mean?
James
A hundred percent.
Flash:
Okay. Let me just give you some others because Matsuyama plus 300, a lot of people are liking Hideki after the way he finished and put four good days together last week. Jason Day plus 700, he’s been having two out of four good rounds recently. Obviously he got derailed in the rain and his swing went to pot. And if you like the outsiders, what about Kevin Na or Kevin Kisner? Kevin Na at plus 1200 top 10 and Kisner at plus 1600. I see the PJ’s in there, sorry I missed the stat, but what about Hovland top 20 at plus 110?
Flash:
I wouldn’t have Hovland to make the cut. I don’t know if you know PJ, but they’re basically, they’ve upside down the edges of the greens and Hovland chipping. If I had my life depending on it, Hovland would probably be the last player on tour that I would ask to chip for me to get up and down because he’s going to be having them 20, 30 yards and they’re going to have to be raised. They’re going to have to have control and listen, let’s face it, the worst part of his game and one of the worst people on tour is Victor Hovland. So, I don’t know if you boys agree with me, but I’ll be happy if he made the cut.
James
I don’t want anything to do with him. The chipping thing is whatever. Again, those stats are just very difficult to decipher, especially when this is a different kind of test. And he has a little familiarity here obviously being Oklahoma state guy, but when is he actually ever been there at a major. To be in the top 10, you have to think the guy can actually win. And I just don’t think that’s possible at this stage in his career. I mean, he’s won all the tournaments that are completely irrelevant, like Puerto Rican Open, those are not real golf tournaments. To win there and then come here and if I’m placing the top 10 bet, you better believe I think the guy has some win equity as well. And I just don’t think he has any. So I’m out on Hovland across the board. I’m not going to fade him. I’m just out. I’d rather be late. I guess that’s my stance.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the top 20 because top 20 is those that we feel as if we are stealing, we’re almost going into the bank with a mask on because we feel as if these boys will not be out the top 20 and we’re getting unbelievable value. I’ll kick off and just say about Webb Simpson at the bottom there, I had to add that. I saw Webb Simpson at 125. He’s the type of person that you forget about at your peril because he can put it together. Hasn’t and that’s why you’re getting 125 to one, but for plus 425 to be in the top 20, can see him leading after day one. And even if he drops away, we’re not talking about like last week where 17 under comes 20 foot. We’re talking about two over probably being top 10. If it goes the way that we think it’s going to go. Craig on there top 20, who are your boys?
Craig:
Oh my two are Matt Fitzpatrick and Corey Conners. So touched on Fitzpatrick earlier. And I agree with James, if you look at Berger’s number to win, you’d much rather take Berger to win over Fitzpatrick at the prices you’re getting double the price but for a top 20, he’s just started to get a few top twenties in majors. I mean he’s debut at Augusta he got seventh, I think. And he’s not had a top 10 since.
Craig:
So, he is really underperformed. I just think that he’s supremely suited. He’s in form. And I think the top 20 is easy we can take that. For him to win it feels like you are on a bit of a wing and a prayer. Corey Conners as well, five of the last six majors he’s been in the top 20. Don’t really need to say much, his ball striking is there. He might win one of these. He is an elite ball striker. And he could probably, if this play’s tough, he could probably be in the hook. I quite like players that have played well in the Texas Open to play well here.
Flash:
Also Corey Connors being Canadian, some say that this course does correlate with the Canadian Open as well.
Craig:
It does. I mean, so with Retief Goosen and Tiger Woods, both won at Glen Abbey.
Flash:
And the other one, who was the other one?
Craig:
Roy Mcllroy. There is a correlation there. So, he’s just solid. He’s playing well top 20, 260. Yeah. All day long.
James
I think Augusta’s the best comp and he’s played well there all the time. So I’m with you on that.
Craig:
Yeah.
Flash:
Yeah. And, this is where we feel as if we are stealing money, isn’t it, James? Because we are actually putting players here that we think can win. So if we are getting plus money for them to be in the top 20, just sign me up.
James
Yeah. No, you’re absolutely right. And look, my guy and I was on Corey Conners, I love Corey Conners, that’s a bet for me as well. But I get Max Homa at the same price who is coming off of a W. I’m looking at 14th at the Phoenix, 10th at the Genesis, 17th at the API, 13th at the Players and then obviously a win at the Wells. And he plays tough courses well. That’s what I love about Homa. I mean, look at his wins. Riviera, Quail Hollow. And then, most recently at Potomac and those are courses that this is how that it will play. It’s like that. And we’re going to guy who’s shown he has the ability to beat top of fields in those conditions. I think he puts a little too much pressure on himself on these majors and that’s fine because look, this is a guy who came out as a number one amateur in the world.
James
He was supposed to just blitz everyone like the Morikawas and the Hovlands and it just didn’t quite happen like that. A little bit of a late bloomer as a pro. But look, he’s got all the skills. We’re talking about a four time winner, three of them have been in the last two years. So, I have him outright in the hundreds. I think that’s a stupid number for a guy who can absolutely duel with all these guys. And he knows he can because he did it as an amateur and he’s done it, especially at Riviera. So, I love that. That’s my favorite 260 right there. For me, a guy who can absolutely win top 20 I think it’s a no brainer.
Flash:
Yeah. I’ve actually just off the top of my head there. The reason we’re getting such good odds on so many good players is the likes of Smith, Homa, Cantlay and Scheffler all multiple winners and we are only just starting in May. It’s like, hang on a minute, the four room has shared say 11 titles. It’s like, come on, give me some of these players. So I’m loving the value on this. And I’m loving the fact that we can do top 10, top 20. You can do match bets. You can do players to make the cut but we all want the winner. And I can tell you now that I’ve had to maybe 10 $5 and $10 bets at plus 200s and plus 150s but let’s have a look at these outright.
Flash:
Oh, sorry, I want to have a look at the officials of the top 20 because I’m just in a rush to get to the big numbers. Conners and Fitzpatrick I think we all agreed that the bull striking of Conners being Canadian as well, Fitzpatrick’s going to love the wind and he will bore you to death. For me a little bit like the same with Fleetwood at plus 300. Fleetwood’s one of those I can see him being maybe top five as well. So you’ll give me plus 300 of top 20, sign me up. Simpson’s one of those, like he did at the Players, a couple of years ago, he could run away and hide if it’s his four days. So plus 425, again, I’m happy. Homa and Bradley, I suppose Bradley would come into that Webb Simpson category, James, apart from you’re not going to have much money on Bradley to win because he could be three or four clear and you know that he goes pieces-
James
A major winner though, right?
Flash:
Reversed. He reversed into it.
James
He also has four of his last five, top 11. So we’re looking at a guy who has been peppering the top 20 board and we’re talking about ball strike game. Doesn’t get much better than Keegan Bradley. So I love those two guys. I don’t have Bradley to win though. I don’t think I’ll ever be them to win again after I saw him belt there at the Potomac.
Flash:
Not even a charity event.
James
No.
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, listen, I think we could actually have six of the top 20 on there. It’s not just about the top 10, top 20. And we’d also throw in them two additional bets at the end and we’ll speak about them, but let’s get to the outrights because this is the business end. Let me have a little alert. So obviously we’re going to have Scottie Scheffler, Masters champion, is he still world number one? I think he is. Isn’t he? Jon Rahm, did Jon Rahm overtake him after Mexico?
James
Yeah.
Flash:
Okay. So we’ve got Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm sitting at the top of the world rankings and there they are. Lowry is definitely my pick. I don’t care, you haven’t got to wait for the official picks to come up. I said, Lowry six, seven weeks ago to James, I’m going to go for a right to left off the tee, throwing the wind, throwing his chipping in short game. I’m just going to have faith but there is plenty on there that I don’t want. But Craig, there’s someone there that you probably do want.
Craig:
Someone on the top that four.
Flash:
Who would be your top one there of the top 10 in the sports betting ?
Craig:
I would go Cam Smith and then Morikawa for me. Just on the prices, I’d probably go Cam Smith. I’m always needing 20 to start playing and-
Flash:
Oh, okay.
Craig:
… I just think he’s a guy we’re talking there earlier like Scheffler, Burns and Homa, the guys that’s winning, but the other guy that’s winning is Cameron Smith. So they are the closest at the moment. For me in my mind, they are above Thomas and Rahm for their chances of winning the tournament. That’s a great number James got on Homa is absolutely fantastic. They are slaying these guys at the top that can’t win at the moment. So yeah, if I had to pick one on there, it would be Cam Smith, but I probably won’t pick any.
Flash:
Okay. Lowry for me, I think-
James
Question on that real quick. Do you think 12 at Augusta, we’ve seen guys do some things at 12 Augusta and they just never recover, is it possible that the situation with Cam Smith?
Craig:
You never know, do you?
Flash:
And it wasn’t an isolated because he did the same on 18 at the Players.
Craig:
I think it’s one of them things you have to get back on the horse and ride it as quick as you can and get over it because I think Molinari’s never been the same.
James
No. Finau has never, well, should he won I guess.
Craig:
But no, they happen. Look at our fate Freddy Couples when it stayed on the bank.
James
Yeah. He wins.
Craig:
Yeah, exactly. It’s a cruel hole and you could have a fair point.
James
Jordan Smith is probably the best example. He got off the wagon after that, right?
Craig:
Yeah.
James
I have Cam Smith, by the way. I love Cam Smith this week. I’m just a little worried about that.
Flash:
Not for me. No, he tightened up. I don’t know duck hooks in my bag, but what about Patrick Cantlay? You can’t go through a major and have any conversation without Patrick Cantlay, because again, he is one of those that he won’t pipe his lights out, but he will be putting for birdie most of the time, which is exactly what you need to do around here.
James
Yeah. So Cantlay’s my guy and I got to say Morikawa is now 20 at BetUS? I just updated the odds. So that’s just an auto, just grab him right now. And then while you’re at it, grab Cantlay too, because here’s the thing I love about Cantlay, he has every single tool in his bag. He is straight. He’s actually weirdly long, strangely because it swings me he is not up with the guys there he’s along with, he just hears it every time he hits it in the center of the club face and it just goes little tight baby lazy draw. It’s the most beautiful thing in the world. If you can ever see it live, it’s just so boring, it’s awesome. Wonderful iron player. Up and down from anywhere. And here’s what I love about Patrick Cantlay, he is number one in strokes game, putting on bent greens between last year and this year.
James
So he is the best bent green putter that we have in this field. And look, he’s going to win a major. The guy has all the pedigree in the world tour championships. He has a weird little sandwich spot over during the season. I think at the Heritage, he got it back there, obviously losing the speed in the playoff, but I need to see him get a little more form. He got it there. Whatever, I don’t really care about losing the RBC heritage. This guy needs to win majors. And he’s a guy who has the pedigree to do so. I love him here, 20 to one. I mean, what’s the difference between him and Thomas at this point, other than he’s won a lot more recently than Thomas. What’s the difference between him and Lowry at this point, other than he has way bigger wins than Lowry has at this point. So I think he should be priced with those guys and he’s not. So I’m going to grab that every single time.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a look at the second page because the second page normally being more popular because they think that the gap between those at the top and these guys are not 20 points. I’m just looking down and you’ve got to go for Hideki Matsuyama because obviously coming off a great four days last week. This course should suit because patience you know what his mentality’s like, a Master’s winner and he’s in form. James, is he going to be one of yours?
James
A hundred percent. This is my first bet. An Hideki 30 needs to be completely eradicated from every sportsbook known to man. It’s absolutely ridiculous that this guy, we’ve been with this guy’s in the thirties after winning the Zozo. A come from behind win at Sony and then he won the Master’s. So in a 13 month span, we’re looking at a guy who has three wins. Two of three are actually really big tournaments. And for him, the pressure at that Zozo it’s big, right? That’s his home country’s tournament. To him, he said that was as big as any major other than the Masters would be and I believe him, right? So his game is suited perfectly, bent grass greens again, a guy who is obviously proven he gains strokes putting in Augusta, which he’s not a very good putter, but he puts well on bent because he just needs those pure surfaces.
James
Strikes it amazing. The guy is incredible with his iron play and he’s just getting back into that form. I love the older Hideki. I feel like the older Hideki is wiser. Remember the younger Hideki who we knew would just never be able to put well enough to win like a big golf tournament. The older Hideki, he’s like a Zen master kind of guy. And here’s what I love about Hideki, he is the best long wood player in the world. And these par fives, they’re not really gettable. I want to see him pull some three woods and hit them like two 80 down the middle like he did Sony to two feet.
James
I think he might try and go for some of these par fives, especially that puts the tees up a little bit. And these par fives are very difficult hitting two. That might be the advantage for him that he needs. And I mean, at 31, why is Xander’s less. Zalatoris is right around the same price, to me that’s just wild stuff. Hideki is my first click. And that’s the most confident I am in any of these numbers.
Flash:
Okay. I’m maybe going to highlight the books, Koepka, which is obviously Brooks’ brother is at plus 2200 and Xander obviously shot through the field last Sunday, but Shane Lowry’s there at plus 3000, which is 30 to one in old money Craig. And you’ve already mentioned that you like him.
Craig:
Yeah, well, I must confess, I liked him more last week. It was 5,000 and took a load of that. At plus 3000 I would lean towards Hideki on there, but I still like Lowry, but I think a Hideki is just in that nice place in his career. He’s just feeling fulfilled. Like James says that Zen thing, it’s almost it’s not that big a deal to him winning this week. He could just outplay the field so-
Flash:
Confident.
Craig:
Strangely the one thing that puts me off is the fact that he played last week and the fact that it will take him a while to change his mindset for this week. So that would be the one worry for me. And like you say, Xander Schauffele, his price just never makes any sense. I was having a conversation with someone over here the other day about it. What the hell people are seeing, he needs to be pretty much down below Burns on that list really. You could put another 22 on that.
Flash:
But that’s the thing, that’s the beauty of this competition because it doesn’t matter how low you actually go and you start going into the hundreds. I’ve gone with Tommy Fleetwood there at plus 7,000 just because he doesn’t miss fairways. He doesn’t miss greens. He misses birdie pots. Here, you don’t want to be missing power pots. So, again, I’ve got him in, what have I got him in? I’ve got him a plus 300 top 20. That’s one unit that gives me a plus 200, but it gives me a free unit on him at plus 9,500, by the way not plus 7,000.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at our official picks on the outrights, cause we’re going to have added as well. And we’re going to mention some players that had not been on them captions but we’ve also got them in our bag as well. So Woods at plus 6,600, Lowry at plus 3000, Mcllroy at plus 1400. Is one of them with Mcllroy. We spoke six, seven weeks ago and said to Mcllroy is definitely in my bag, I couldn’t then get off him and then see him go because he’s the one player in this field that could run away and hide, because he’s not going to win by one. He’s ever going to win by four or five or he is not going to win.
James
Question for you real quick, Flash, Mcllroy or Smith? I mean, we’re getting Smith at maybe 20. I want to bet on one of those two and I can’t figure out which one that would do.
Flash:
Honestly, I cannot, I think I’ve had maybe seven individual bets on Mcllroy at the moment.
Craig:
Because it’s stupid.
Flash:
I mean, again, I don’t see him being at the top 10 at plus 180. So again, my units go on Mcllroy and at 14 I just cannot see, Mcllroy not turning up when right to left off the tee. He’s the one player in the world that springs to mind. Chipping and putting and weather, springs to mind. He’s done it with correlated courses and he seems to have more balance and he’s not trying to hit the ball too hard. I think if you’ve got a match up between Mcllroy and Scheffler or Mcllroy and Smith, you’d take Mcllroy every day. And then you’ve gone with the, I would say reliable citizens, Cantlay and Matsuyama.
James
They’re just going to be there.
Flash:
Yeah. Well I think they’re both going to be right top 20. So again, if someone’s interested in just taking a plus 2000, plus 3000, then you’d have them in the top 10, top 20 as well. Now let’s have a little look if there’s any Q&A and while you have to decide about what you want to ask us, then I’m going to remind you about subscribing because we’re America’s favorite sportsbook. And also ringing a bell so we can notify you because obviously we’ve got the British Open will be next and US Open and we’ve got the French Open tennis and the Preakness. And then listen two of them are this week. So what a weekend of sport we are going to be having. And also if you’re on social media, then please follow @BetUSTV and you will never miss anything that gets put out and we are going to be up in the game from now, forever more. Okay. Let’s have a look [inaudible 00:42:37] got any plays on any matchups? I would say James, you are more a matchup guy. Well, give me a couple.
James
I mean, I love the matchups. This is really where personally make my hay. I actually bet like a thousand of these matchups. The ones that I have bet right now I am a full fan of Tony Finau. I’m done with him. I needed to see something more from him. I’ve home over Finau, even money.
Flash:
And these are some of Finau whole matchups, yeah?
James
What’s that?
Flash:
72 hole.
James
Yeah, full of tournament. Yeah. The round one stuff I haven’t seen it yet, but I’ll also be attacking those as well. And then Hatton, I mean, we’re talking about the European players, we have even mentioned Hatton. He’s completely alive here to win this by the way. And you can hit over Finau at plus 110. Look, I know you talked about Austin, I think he’s hurt. You know, his WD for the Masters is a little alarming. He’s going to try and be a gamer for these majors. But right now you have Adam Scott as a dog to him and that’s just not right. Because this golf course fits Adam Scott as well as it does almost anyone. We’re talking about ball striking, fairway iron play, and he’s turned into a randomly amazing putter plus 105 there. And then I’m going to leave my last match up for best guys because I got a good one there. So we’ll save it for that one.
Flash:
Okay. Craig, any matchups because I’ve just going with Rory against anyone.
Craig:
Yeah. Well I’d be opposing Jon Rahm pretty much across the board. Again, I don’t know what he was doing playing the other week. And James’ matchup there with Hatton against Finau out. I liked Hatton this week. Like I said, I had so many Europeans. I liked the Wentworth correlation like Lowry and Fitzpatrick, but he’s better at Wentworth than them to.
James
He won a Rolex event at Wentworth or something big there.
Craig:
Yeah, he did. He won the PGA.
Flash:
And he is number two on tour, strokes game, putting.
James
What’s his number? I’m going to have to look.
Flash:
Is that minus 1.105 or something like that?
Craig:
Yeah. I mean, I struggled to leave him out this week, him and Horschel of the show because-
James
Either one right now at the US. Either one.
Craig:
Yeah. I mean we saw what he could do the other year when it was tough conditions.
James
Or API.
Craig:
Yeah. He’s just like, I mean really we’ve talked about Rory, we’ve talked about Shane and Mcllroy, we’ve talked about Fitzpatrick, all them guys are suited by Wentworth, but in truth, Hatton is suited more by Wentworth than all three. Yeah. So, you could make a strong case for him in a lot of bets and definitely there at plus money to beat Finau. Yeah. I like that.
Flash:
Yeah. But it’s just that again, both of them that you mentioned, which was obviously Tyrell Hatton and Billy Horschel is the marbles that start rattling around in their heads. You count on this type of golf course. My God, we want the opposite end of the spectrum. We can’t go from the sublime to the ridiculous because they could start fighting with themselves after four holes. And like we got four days. It’s a no one.
James
He’s a front runner though. If he gets it going, I think he can hold it up.
Flash:
And he will respond. He will respond as well.
Craig:
Horschel’s record is so bad in PGAs it is just not real. I mean, so he won at Wentworth in the PGA, his best US Open performance was at Marion, which was this skilled hands so he redesigned that place. Yeah. So his ball striking all season has been marvelous, Horschel. I struggled to leave him and Hatton out. Out of all my men those are the ones I really struggled to leave out.
James
I have him over Austin. I’m a full Austin fan. I have him as a dog to Austin. I bet that as well. Yeah.
Flash:
And I mean Austin, I mean, when have you ever seen him? Just quickly want to ask before we go to our best bets and the best bets we will have to spend a few minutes because we’re going to add a couple of it. Then one’s not even the categories with him included. Charlenes Schwartzel was like a 220 to one. He’s been appearing hasn’t he recently on leaderboards.
James
He has an issue putting. We’ll just call it what it is. He’s gone to the Adam Scott putter. I know this before that he was arm lock. Before that he was arm lock cross hand. He looks like a pretzel when he is trying to grip the putter. I mean, definitely more of a top 20 bet or if you want to get a first round leader maybe, or you want to get involved in a matchup, but when you’re switching putters weekly, that’s just not a guy I can never get behind.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the best bets and you will see at the bottom that we have added to each and you’ll see the reasons why I’ve not mentioned Matsuyama. So we start with Craig’s because Craig is-
James
I love it.
Flash:
… At plus 700 top 10 and Lowry at plus 300, Conners plus 260 and Fitzpatrick at plus 180 for the top 20. To win Woods, plus 6,600 and Lowry at plus 3000. And his extra is top Scandinavian Noren at plus 230 and top rest of the world is Bezuidenhout at plus 2200. James has gone for obviously Lowry and Berger in his top 10 at plus 300, plus 500. Homa and Bradley at plus 260, plus 330 on the top 20. They’re normally our go-tos the top 20s are where we are thinking we’re making our units. And then it’s up to us to spread them around and make them into more businessmen I like to call that. We send our businessmen into make more money. So to win is going to be Cantlay at plus 2000, Matsuyama at plus 3000. And he’s extra bets, it’s Woods over Reed at plus 115, and [Ansa 00:48:24] to miss the cut at plus 135.
Flash:
But James does also have question marks over Bryson and Brooks and Patrick Reed to miss the cut. So if you like them, then please make sure you request prices on them. I’d like my best bets up so that I can now actually have a go on this game because I spend weeks preparing this show and then when I’ve got my bets they get thrown off. It’s almost a producer saying, okay, well, interesting Craig’s or interesting, James, but not yours. Just go straight to the bottom of mind because I’m maxing out all over. Top rest of the world, Matsuyama at plus 700. Top Asian Matsuyama at plus 180. There’s another one. I think I get 1.8 units and then I’ll spread it elsewhere. Fleetwood at plus 7,000. But everybody I have named, I have actually going to be having a little bit on to win.
Flash:
My top 20 is Fleetwood at plus 300. Simpson at plus 425, also Simpson plus 12,500 or 125 million or whatever he is. But Mcllroy is my boy this week, plus 180 top 10, plus 1400 to win. Cannot wait, James. Cannot wait, Craig. And we’ll be talking as we go. If there is any added bets during the week, then please copy in @BetUSTV so make sure that you follow them. That means if they do fancy something after day one, day two and remember we believe that it’s not going to be a big score and you will need to be at the top of the leaderboard or around it straight away from day one. Okay. So make sure that you’re following and you can bet with BetUS.com live for the whole four days. James, good luck. You know you’re cheering on Rory, right/
James
I’m going to have to get some Rory now.
Flash:
You’ve got to have some Rory. You’ve got to be in my camp.
James
I think that’s in my guy then. That’s my guy.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly. Craig, thanks for all your hard work. And we’ll look forward to speaking as we go over the next four days. Listen, and if you are wanting to follow these guys, make sure you get yourselves on Twitter, because they will respond and they will answer your questions. So for everyone at BetUS enjoy Southern Hills, Tulsa, Oklahoma, because it is the second major of the year of the PGA championships.
