Summer Olympics Odds On Which Country Will Win the Most Medals

· May 02 - 6 minutes read

The Paris 2024 Summer Olympics are fast approaching, and the burning question on everyone’s mind is: which country will reign supreme in the medal count? The USA has been a powerhouse in recent years, but China and Japan are hot on their heels. And don’t count out the host nation, France – they’ve got home-field advantage and a roster full of rising stars.

So, who’s looking best to leave Paris with the most medals?

US' athlete Sha'Carri Richardson is expected to help the USA defend its medal count leader crown at the 2024 Summer Olympics. — US' athlete Sha'Carri Richardson - EMMANUEL DUNAND / AFP

Summer Olympics Odds On Which Country Will Win the Most Medals

With everyone wondering which country will come out on top in the race for the most medals, will the USA continue their dominance, or will China or Japan give them a run for their money? Will Germany take the crown? Or will it be France looking to put on a performance for the ages in front of their home crowd, Great Britain, or any other top-caliber competitor? Let’s take a closer look at which country will lead the medal count.

USA -2500

With the 2024 Summer Olympics just around the corner, the race for the most medals is heating up. But let’s be real – Team USA is the betting favorite to take home the most medals with odds at a staggering -2500. It’s no surprise, considering their dominance in previous Olympic Games, where they’ve topped the overall Medal table in 7 of the last 8 Summer Olympics.

The latest betting odds have the USA at -1000 to win the most medals. Still, those odds suggest an impressive chance that the USA will once again reign supreme in the medal tally.

The US is expected to continue their Olympic dominance in Paris, with the current projection of 121 medals – eight more than they claimed in 2020. They’re projected to win medals in 26 different sports, just shy of their own Olympic record of 29 set in Tokyo. As always, athletics and swimming will be the key to their success, with nearly half of their medals expected to come from those two sports alone.

Also, the American team will be poised to showcase their prowess in other sporting disciplines such as shooting, wrestling, gymnastics, men’s and women’s basketball, cycling, men’s and women’s tennis, archery, and equestrian.

China +500

While the USA is the clear favorite to earn the most medals, don’t sleep on China, who are coming in as second favorites with +500 odds.

China bounced back at the Tokyo Olympics after a disappointing showing in Rio de Janeiro, where they only managed 70 medals – their lowest since 2004. Current projections suggest that China will perform similarly to what we saw three years ago in Japan. They’re expected to dominate in diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis, and artistic gymnastics, with 21 sports boasting a top-three Chinese competitor.

But here’s where it gets interesting – China’s projected gold medal total of 37 means they’re a serious threat to the US’’ position as the winner of most golds in Paris. China’s success has been concentrated in a few key disciplines, with athletes in gymnastics, diving, and shooting bringing home the most hardware. They’ve also been absolutely dominant in table tennis (32 golds) and badminton (20 golds) – more than any other country in the world.

Japan +6600

With odds of +6600, Japan is smack dabbed in the middle of our list, trailing behind powerhouses like China and the USA. But don’t count them out just yet!

Fresh off hosting the 2020 Summer Olympics, where they racked up an impressive 58 medals, Japan is looking to keep the momentum going in Paris. According to the latest predictions, Japan is expected to come close to their Tokyo performance in terms of total medals, with a forecast of just five fewer than they won two years ago.

However, there’s a catch – while Japan’s overall medal count may be similar, their gold medal tally is predicted to take a hit, dropping from a whopping 27 in Tokyo to just 16 in Paris. But hey, 16 gold medals is still nothing to sneeze at!

Japan is projected to bring home hardware in 21 different sports, matching their record from the Tokyo Games. Judo’s Abe siblings and gymnast Daiki Hashimoto are expected to be big contributors, with back-to-back gold medals likely to help Japan secure a fourth-place finish on the medal table.

Judo and wrestling, particularly in women’s events, have been strong suits for Japan in the past, and that trend is expected to continue in Paris. These two sports alone will account for a staggering 20 medals for the Japanese team.

Great Britain +8000

Great Britain comes fourth on our list. Now, I know what you’re thinking – fourth place isn’t exactly a podium finish. But hear me out! With odds of +8000, GB is currently sitting pretty in fourth place on our list. And with the short trip across the Channel to Paris, Great Britain will be hungry for a strong showing.

GB is poised to keep their hot streak alive, with a projected 60 or more medals for the fourth Olympic Summer Games in a row. Their success over the past three Olympics has been built on a diverse range of medal winners across at least 20 sports, and it looks like that trend is set to continue.

The British are predicted to take home a whopping 17 golds, 22 silvers, and 25 bronzes in everything from athletics to boxing, cycling, BMX freestyle, diving, equestrian, gymnastics, judo, rowing, sailing, swimming, taekwondo, and triathlon. Talk about a well-rounded team!

France +10000

Closing out the list, let’s talk about the home team – France! As the host country of the Paris 2024 Olympics, you might think they have an advantage, but with odds of +10000, here’s to hoping for a Paris miracle.

According to current projections, France is expected to seriously up their game from the Tokyo Olympics. We’re talking nearly tripling their gold medal count and significantly increasing their overall medal total.

Historically, France has been successful in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century. But this time around, they’re projected to bring home hardware in a record-breaking 23 different sports. If that doesn’t scream “home turf advantage,” I don’t know what does!

France’s expected total of 27 Olympic golds would be almost equal to their entire medal count from the Tokyo 2020 Games. Talk about a glow-up!

And let’s not forget about the star power. With NBA sensation Victor Wembanyama and soccer superstar Kylian M’Bappe both expressing genuine interest in representing their country, France could be looking at some serious podium potential in basketball and soccer.