Back Worthy Favorite Larson to Rule in NASCAR Ally 400
For just the fourth time ever, the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Nashville Speedway on Sunday for the Ally 400. This lack of a sample size could pose a challenge in making your NASCAR Picks, though we have parsed through the fields and found some best bets for the week.
Will Larson Win? Bet on it!
Kyle Larson, currently a co-favorite to win the Cup Series championship at +450, bounced back at Loudon last week with a solid fourth-place finish. Larson carries that into Nashville where he is the NASCAR betting odds favorite to win at +400. In addition to his three wins on the season, Larson has run well in the three previous Nashville races.
He won the inaugural race in 2021 and has finished in the top-five in both years since. If you don’t believe in Larson to win, his odds to continue the top-five streak is a less than appealing -150. We believe Larson will get back to victory lane and make good on those +400 odds.
Hendrick Motorsports has been incredibly strong this season as a unit. Chase Elliott, who missed races with an injury and failed to visit victory lane in 2023, has yet to finish outside the top-20 in 18 races. His 18th-place finish at Loudon was his second-worst of the season. The sport’s consensus most popular driver won at Nashville in 2022 and followed it up with a fourth last season. His odds for a second Nashville win sit at +750. For a more modest bet of a top-five finish, you can get Elliott for +130.
While a blown engine prematurely ended Alex Bowman’s day last week, he still has a whopping 10 top-10s on the season. But due to his lackluster Nashville results, the NASCAR oddsmakers still have him at +200 odds for a top-10. We will base our pick off his 2024 results rather than his Nashville track record. We are back in on one of our most popular bets of the season.
NASCAR Top-10 Pick: Alex Bowman +200
Don’t Sleep on Top-5 Props for Bell, Hamlin
The only other team regularly contending for wins alongside Hendrick is Joe Gibbs Racing. Christopher Bell proved us wrong last week by winning at Loudon and has now pulled alongside teammate Denny Hamlin and Larson as championship favorites. He has five-straight top-10s, part of his series-leading 11.
Bell has been solid in three starts at Nashville with three top-10s, though he has failed to score a top-five. Naturally, Bell’s top-10 odds don’t provide much return on investment at -260. If you believe in Bell to get his first Nashville top-five, you can get him at a more palatable +125.
Hamlin is trending in the opposite direction of Bell. After five-straight top-fives, he has finished outside the top-20 in three-straight races, including a last at Sonoma. Hamlin has been successful at Nashville with a third- and sixth-place finish to his name. His odds to truly bounce back and win the race sit at +550. We much prefer his -105 odds for a top-five, though we would not blame you for staying away from Hamlin until his performance improves.
Fade Ross Chastain, Prop Up Haley, Jones
One of the drivers with the best Nashville results is Ross Chastain. In addition to winning last year’s race, he has a runner-up finish and another top-five to show for. Based on those results, it is reasonable for the NASCAR oddsmakers to set his winning odds at +700, third best in the field. But that lacks the context of Chastain’s rather disappointing 2024 season.
Even though the Melon Man has two top-fives and seven top-10s, with three of them coming in the last five races, he has not contended for wins like the last couple years. If you are confident that Chastain’s affinity for the Music City will outweigh the lack of competitiveness for Team Trackhouse, then his top-10s odds sit at -260. But we will stay away from him as there are better values to find in the field.
Pivoting from the disappointment of Chastain, one of the biggest surprises in the field has been Justin Haley, in his first year with Rick Ware Racing. Previously known as a backmarker, Haley has that car competing for top-15s on a somewhat regular basis. While he only has two top-10s to show for, they have both come in the last six races.
This doesn’t include a strong 13th-place run at Iowa for Haley, who was running in the top-10 in the late going at Loudon before losing ground on the final re-start. Haley never had a top-20 in three Nashville starts driving for Kaulig Racing. But at +1500 odds for a top-10, it is a great low-stakes bet for a hot driver with a potentially feel-good story.
Another driver with longshot top-10 odds is Erik Jones. It has been a miserable season for Jones and Legacy Motor Club, missing two races after breaking his back and having only one top-10 to show for, which was at the season-opening Daytona 500.
Why are we in on Jones this week? He has been solid at Nashville, finishing eighth last year for Legacy and falling just one spot short of a top-10 in 2023. His struggles this year have left him with +1200 odds for a top-10. It is another good opportunity for a low-stakes bet that could provide great return.
NASCAR Top-10 Pick: Justin Haley +1500;
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
