Can Anyone Beat Verstappen in Monaco? Odds Say Maybe
Will we get an encore of the final lap in Imola? Don’t hold your breath as the Monaco Grand Prix is more about prestige than entertainment. The narrow-winding road of the city-turned-racetrack makes it difficult to overtake. It is typically determined by one thing: qualifying. For Lando Norris to chase Max Verstappen, the F1 betting favorite, down, he will need to crush it in qualifying. As such, we need to determine who wins on Saturday to get a better read on Sunday’s race’s odds.
Imola 2022: Max Verstappen hunting down Charles Leclerc.
Imola 2024: Max Verstappen defending against Lando Norris.
Result: Max won both🦁
Credit to @F1GuyDan pic.twitter.com/8n6JqCcfHt
— Marc | Formula 1 🏎 (@433_marc) May 21, 2024
Verstappen Sweeps Qualifying
Verstappen barely got by Norris at Imola as he won by under a second. One wrong move would have given the Briton a second straight checkered flag. But when it comes to qualifying, few can match the Red Bull man’s pace. The three-time defending F1 champion has won pole position in every race this season.
On top of that, he won Monaco last season from pole position. He was ahead of Aston Martin’s Fernando Alonso by nearly 28 seconds. But if we check the F1 odds, it’s as tight as you’ll find with Verstappen as the +140 prohibitive favorite. Last year was the only time he won pole from Monaco.
Charles Leclerc, tied with Norris at +300, has won twice in 2022 and 2021. However, he also failed to win the race on both occasions. Norris has only won pole position once in his career, which was back in 2021 at the Russian Grand Prix.
But while pole position gives the driver better odds to win, it’s not a guarantee. Just ask Leclerc. He has also yet to win a race since the Austrian Grand Prix in 2022.
Norris could have a better shot at beating Verstappen if he has a strong qualifying. He started third in Imola and finished second, fifth in Miami and won, and fourth in China with a second-place finish.
Monaco is a different beast. And while Norris’s McLaren, with its upgrades, is better suited than Verstappen’s Red Bull, it will come down to which driver can minimize mistakes. The line at -200 says it’s Verstappen to come out on top.
The Comeback Kid? Don’t Count Alonso Out
Alonso is 42 going on 21. The Spaniard has found the fountain of youth and has stayed relevant despite his team’s shortcomings. He had a disastrous showing in Imola, which contributed to his long odds in Monaco. But the two-time F1 champion has done well in courses like this. He’s won Monaco twice in 2006 and 2007 and finished second last year.
We’re not counting on Alonso to shock the world with a victory this Sunday. That pays 66/1 if he pulls off this stunner. But other markets have +120 for a top-six finish or 14/1 for a return to the podium. Either one is not a bad flyer to take, especially since Alonso excels in corners and in maintaining pace.
F1 Monaco Grand Prix Moneyline Odds
His compatriot, Carlos Sainz Jr., is also a sleeper here. He’s listed at 16/1 to win the race and +175 for a podium finish. He’s finished second at Monaco twice. Given how he’s one of only two drivers (Norris) to beat Verstappen this season, he’s not the worst bet online.
F1 Monaco Grand Prix Race Information
- Race: Monaco Grand Prix 2024
- Day/Time: Sunday, May 26, 9:00 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuit de Monaco
- Monaco Grand Prix TV: Formula1.com
The Best Bet is on a Tight Race
The Monaco Grand Prix is the crown jewel of F1 for a reason. It’s difficult to dominate and is punishing as far as being an exacting driver. That’s why we give the edge to Verstappen over Norris. But the best F1 bet is in the winning margins. The qualifying margin is at 0.1 to 0.2 seconds. Bet on under 0.1 (+140) as it will be another razor-thin decision. And as far as the race, it is likely to be under five seconds at +160.
Questions of the Day
Is Lando Norris worth betting on the F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Lando Norris is listed at +400 to win the race and is -170 to finish on the podium (top three). He’s had three consecutive podium finishes thus far.
Who has the most wins at the Monaco Grand Prix?
The late great Ayrton Senna has the record for most victories at Monaco with six. Among active drivers, Lewis Hamilton has the most with three.
