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F1 Is Exciting to Bet Again! Takeaways From Australian GP

Holy smokes! Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc led Ferrari to a 1-2 showing in the 2024 Australian Grand Prix. F1 odds’ favorite, Max Verstappen, saw his chances literally go up in smoke. Thanks to this shocker, the F1 standings are now as tight as they were around this time two years ago. With Red Bull suddenly plagued by issues, coupled with Ferrari’s resurgence, we may finally have a competitive season again.


F1 Is Exciting to Bet Again! Takeaways From Australian GP
Ferrari's Spanish driver Carlos Sainz Jr | WILLIAM WEST / AFP


Red Bull Still Widely Favored Despite Ferrari

If you thought this F1 season was going to be a repeat of the last, you thought wrong. At least, that’s what it looks like now that Verstappen proved he was still mortal. His retirement from the Australian GP was his first since the same event back in 2021. It also meant he earned zero points and now only holds a four-point lead for first place.

Still, F1 betting odds are unmoved, with Verstappen still listed at -1000 to win the title and Red Bull at -1600. Verstappen is also favored to win the Japanese Grand Prix on April 7 at -500. Judging by these short lines, the Australian GP’s results were a “fluke”, and it is unlikely we see Verstappen fail to finish again.

But we can’t discount how good Ferrari has looked. The constructor has 93 points and is just four points behind Red Bull for the top spot. It earned four podium finishes in just three races. In comparison last season, Ferrari had zero podium finishes and stood a distant fourth with 26 points at this time.

The sportsbook lists the Italian team at +900 to win the Constructors’ Championship while Leclerc and Sainz are tied at +2000 to win the Drivers’ Championship. They are also tied at +1400 to win in Japan in two weeks.

Sainz came back from an appendix surgery and won the race. He’s now finished on the podium in both his races while Leclerc has five podium finishes in his last seven races dating back to last season.


Mercedes Reaches New Low

Ferrari’s gain is Mercedes’s loss. Once the most consistent rival to Red Bull, the German constructor had a disastrous showing in Albert Park. Both Lewis Hamilton and George Russell failed to complete the race. Now, the team finds itself with just 26 points and in fourth place – eerily similar to where Ferrari was last season.

But if the trend is similar, it is still too early to count Mercedes out. Ferrari rallied and finished strong last season and Mercedes may do something similar unless Hamilton is totally “washed up”. The seven-time world champion is currently 10th in the driver standings with just eight points. He has yet to finish in the top six.

The outright sports betting odds are bearish on Mercedes’s chances. In markets that exclude Red Bull and Verstappen, Mercedes is +900 while both Hamilton and Russell are +6600 each. These are unflattering odds given how Mercedes used to be where Red Bull is now: as an unbeatable team.

Now, Mercedes looks like it may even finish behind McLaren and Aston Martin. McLaren has doubled Mercedes’s points with 55 and is a distant third while Aston Martin is just one point behind.

Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri look to be a tier below Ferrari’s duo. But they have consistently outperformed Mercedes’s tandem. Fernando Alonso has failed to replicate last season’s strong start. But he has, at least, been a better F1 pick than his longtime rival: Hamilton.



Questions Of The Day

Which driver is most likely to win the Japanese Grand Prix?

With short odds of -500, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is the likeliest winner of the Japanese GP.

What is the best value bet for the F1 futures market?

Betting on Charles Leclerc at +250 to win (without Verstappen) may be a shrewd bet online.

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