Five races into the 2023 F1 season and Red Bull remains a perfect 5-0. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez have alternated finishing first, so if the trend continues, Perez will win his second straight Monaco Grand Prix. The Monaco Grand Prix lines favor Verstappen comfortably though Perez’s last five wins all came in street circuits.
Perez Has Edge Over Verstappen?
According to the Monaco Grand Prix odds, that is not the case. Verstappen is favored to win at +125, while Perez is second at +300. Verstappen won Monaco in 2021 and Perez won in 2022. Both finished on the podium last year, so, at -120, it seems like a fair line for Red Bull to pull this off again. But Perez could be a sharp underdog pick with his “street smarts.”
“He’s always very good between the walls. You gain speed from getting as close to the walls on the exit as possible. He has very nice throttle control, that’s also part of why he is very good at looking after his rear tires. He’s relatively late on the throttle on softs, but he can judge his speed, his entry speed very nicely,” explained F1 expert Mark Hughes during The Race F1 podcast.
But Verstappen is no slouch on street circuits. He won Monaco and also has wins in Baku (Azerbaijan), Albert Park (Australia), and Miami (twice). And this season, the heavy favorite to win his third F1 title (-900) has either finished first or second. Verstappen will remain a top Monaco Grand Prix betting pick.
Leclerc Still Seeking Homecoming Moment
While the Red Bull drivers battle it out amongst each other, Ferrari is still searching for ways to close the gap between them and the upper echelon. They sit fourth in the standings. Charles Leclerc sits at seventh heading to the Monaco Grand Prix, which has been disastrous for him and the team.
The Monegasque racer has finished in the top six just once this season (a third-place finish in Azerbaijan). And in Monaco, Leclerc’s “best” finish was fourth place last year. It was a race he looked set to win by gaining pole position. But, of course, the team notoriously made an ill-advised pit stop that cost him the race.
The online sports betting odds are still bullish on his chances. Leclerc is just behind Verstappen in most markets, from pole position (+175) to being the fastest in practice (+275). But given his struggles this season and in Monaco, a podium finish (-175) should be considered a victory for the 25-year-old.
Mercedes Takes Big Risk With New Upgrade
Red Bull widened the gap between it and Mercedes in 2022, and in 2023, it does not even feel like a competition. The constructor has flown away from the once-dominant Mercedes. The German-based team is third in the standings with just one podium victory: a second-place finish for Lewis Hamilton in Australia.
Mercedes will debut its W14B, which should be better than what it currently has. It’s a big risk for Mercedes, especially on a track like Monaco. But what does the team have to lose at this point? It is a whopping 128 points behind Red Bull while Fernando Alonso of Aston Martin continues to outperform both Mercedes drivers.
The risk for Mercedes is for the team to finish even worse in Monaco, with Ferrari 18 points behind. Still, it may be better to debut its new upgrade now rather than later.
F1 Monaco Grand Prix Race Information
- Race: Formula 1 Rolex Monaco Grand Prix 2023
- Day/Time: Sunday, May 28, 9:00 a.m. ET
- Location: Circuit de Monaco, Monte Carlo, Monaco
- F1 Monaco Grand Prix Live stream: Formula1.com
F1 Monaco Grand Prix Betting Odds
|WINNING CAR F1 MONACO GRAND PRIX||Moneyline|
The odds in this chart are posted on the time of publication of the article. They are subject to change without previous notice.
F1 Monaco Grand Prix Picks and Prediction
Red Bull is unbeatable at this point. Verstappen has been nearly flawless, while Perez has been just as good in street circuits. The best bet online is to take both Verstappen and Perez to finish on the podium. It’s been the case in four of the five races this season.