AdventHealth 400 Picks & Betting Analysis

The Cup Series continues Sunday at Kansas Speedway as the Cup Series prepares for its All-Star race next week in Texas. Here, we’ll break down and analyze the AdventHealth 400 along with providing value picks among this weekend’s odds. Last year’s AdventHealth 400 was named the Buschy McBusch Race 400. We will be referring to it as last year’s spring race.

Let’s check the latest news, stats, reports, and NASCAR odds for AdventHealth 400. We’ve plenty of predictions for you to consider.

Who Wins?

When placing a bet on NASCAR, the first thing you should do is simply go and look and see who’s won at the track, both recently and all time. At the top, we have Denny Hamlin (+750), who leads all active drivers with three wins at Kansas, along with Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano. Over the last six races at Kansas, Hamlin has enjoyed three top-five finishes, including a pair of wins.

While Harvick (+1800) has done well at Kansas Speedway in the last six runnings, illustrated by four top-five finishes, he hasn’t taken a checkered flag here since 2018. Still, he leads all active drivers with an average finish of 8.9 over 32 career races. Could this be the week he takes his first checkered flag since 2020? He’s been solid so far this season and has finished in the top 10 in each of the last three races, and 6 out of 12.

Joey Logano (+1200) may be tied for the lead among active drivers with three wins, but he lacks behind that same pack when it comes to average finish, just 17.1. Logano is hot right now coming off a bump-and-run win at Darlington.

Are the Favorites Worth It?

Kyle Larson is also listed as the favorite at +550. While he finished 19th in last year’s spring race at Kansas, he won the fall race. He has an average finish of 15.5 at Kansas all-time with six top-10 finishes. This may not be one of Larson’s strongest tracks, his talent level has him in the running week in and week out. He likely won’t make my card for the weekend.

It’s easy to see why Vegas has pegged Chase Elliott as having some of the lowest odds for this weekend at +750. While he has one win on this track back in 2018, it’s been his performance over the past six races that has earned these odds. It doesn’t include a win, but he leads here in average over the last six races (5.2). Among active drives, Elliot’s average finish of 9.8 over 12 races, he’s second only to Harvick. Over the last six races at Kansas, Harvick’s average finish of 5.5 is second only to Elliot.

Kyle Busch (+750) won the spring race at Kansas last season. He has one other career win at this track back in 2016. He’s raced here 28 times and has an average finish of 15.6. However, since the fall race in 2014, his average finish is almost half of that at 8.5.

Best of the Rest

William Byron (+1000) was in line for his third win of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season last weekend before Logano’s bump-and-run tactics caused him to go into the outside wall and finished 13th. Byron hasn’t won at Kansas before, but has run consistently. In eight races, he’s finished inside the top ten five times.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000) has also seen some success at Kansas. He’s got one top-five finish to show for it and five top-10 finishes. He actually has the same average finish over the last six races as Hamlin, who has three wins.

I mentioned last week that Ross Chastain has commanded the respect of the NASCAR community, seemingly coming out of nowhere. He’s currently available at +900.

If you’re looking for a longshot, you won’t have to look very far. Brad Keselowski is currently available at +8000. Three years ago, you couldn’t imagine seeing someone of Keselowski’s pedigree with odds this high. But this season and the new car setups haven’t been kind to him.

Outside of his ninth-place finish in the Daytona 500, Keselowski hasn’t cracked the top 10 this season. However, over the last six races, Keselowski is third among active drivers with an average finish of 7.7 including four top-five finishes with a win.

Zach’s AdventHealth 400 picks

For this race, and with so many drivers with similar odds, I’m looking for value in this one while looking at outrights.

Logano is hot coming off the win at Darlington and has six top-10 finishes and four top-five finishes this season. He’s on my card at +1200.

Harvick at +1800 is on my card as well. He simply has run too well here both historically and recently at Kansas. Since he hasn’t won since 2020, there have been whispers of him being washed up. Yet he has finished in the top 10 each of the last three weeks. The +1800 is way too high.

Lastly, Keselowski at +8000 will be a small play, probably around a quarter of a unit. Unlike Harvick, he hasn’t had a great 2022, highlighted earlier. But for the driver who has the third-best average finish over the last six races, you can’t not play him at this price.