The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season concludes on Sunday, November 7, at Phoenix Raceway, where the top four drivers will compete for the coveted trophy. As Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, and Danny Hamlin get ready for the most important race of the season, this is the prime time to look at the betting odds and provide you with our best picks.
If you want to bet now on the final race of the NASCAR Cup Series season, you should keep in mind that the eventual champion does not necessarily need to win the race. Although only four eligible drivers can win the title, the race will also feature other drivers.
This essentially means that the champions won’t necessarily be the winner of the Phoenix race – but rather the one of the four that finishes in the best spot. With that out of the way, we can now focus on our free NASCAR Cup Series Championship. Without further ado, let’s check the NASCAR odds for this weekend.
Drivers To Watch
Kyle Larson
When we talk about the potential winners of the season’s final race, it’s only fair to mention the four title contenders. Unsurprisingly, the four also lead the online sports betting markets as the top favorites to win the race.
Kyle Larson leads the way at +150, followed by Chase Elliott at +450, Denny Hamlin in third at +450, and Martin Truex Jr. in fourth at +500. The offered betting odds make a lot of sense because they perfectly show which drivers have shown the most over the season.
Larson has been by far the most impressive driver of the year and is deservingly the favorite. That said, he hadn’t achieved much on the Phoenix Raceway, with his best placement a runner-up finish in 2017.
Adding to that, Larson has managed five top-5s and eight top-10s which is still solid for someone who has had only 12 starts on the track. At the same time, Larson’s record in Phoenix hardly warrants a bet on him at +150.
Denny Hamlin
Out of the four title contenders, Denny Hamlin has won the most races on the track (two). Beyond that, he has also collected 15 top-5s and 19 top-10s across 32 starts.
His most recent victory in Phoenix happened in 2019 when Hamlin ended the season in fourth. In the three Phoenix races since then, Hamlin collected one 20th-place finish (March 2020), and two top-5s in November 2020 (4th) and March 2021 (3rd), so it’s fair to say that he knows his way around the track.
Chase Elliott
The defending champion, Chase Elliott holds a strong record in Phoenix, where he won last year to win his maiden NASCAR Cup Series title and has since added a solid fifth-place finish earlier this year.
With that, Elliott is at one win, four top-5s, and seven top-10s on the track across 11 appearances. However, his average finish is fairly mediocre, at 11.2.
It’s also worth pointing out that Elliott wasn’t nearly as impressive in 2021 as he was in 2020, particularly towards the end of the season. However, Elliott might disagree with that statement.
“I don’t feel like it’s been a lack of performance on certain ovals. I think we’ve been really solid,” said Elliott.
“I feel like we are just as capable as we were a year ago or a year before that.”
Last year, Elliott won three of the final five races, whereas this year, his most recent win happened way back in July when he won the 2021 Jockey Made in America 250. On a more positive note, Elliott finished second in Kansas last month and finished seventh in Texas.
Martin Truex Jr.
The 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion, Martin Truex Jr., is billed as the least-likely driver to win this weekend out of the four contenders, which is reasonable considering he has achieved far less than his competitors.
What’s more, his record on the track isn’t exactly impressive, with one win, five top-5s, and 13 top-10s from 31 appearances. That translates to a 15.4 average finish, the 12th-best out of all NASCAR drivers.
There’s a world where Truex Jr. proves everyone wrong and wins his second title, but we wouldn’t count on it.
Prediction
There is a good reason why Larson is priced as the favorite to win the race, but at +150, we wouldn’t bet on him. He has been the most impressive driver of the season; however, he has never won in Phoenix, while his best placement (2nd) came way back in 2017.
Instead of Larson, we like Elliott at +400, who seems a bit underrated at the offered betting odds. Although he is clearly not as good as he was last term, he has consistently delivered in Phoenix, and the overall season form doesn’t mean much if a driver is good on a particular track.
Elliott might not be the top driver, but he is definitely worth a shot in the finale at the offered NASCAR betting odds for this weekend.
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