Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds: NASCAR Best Bets

3 Top FireKeepers Casino 400 Predictions

1. Watch for Drivers on the Bubble

Saturday night will be a nail-biter for the drivers currently above the cutline that have yet to win a race, as well as those on the outside looking in. Not only do they risk a poor points night by getting involved in a wreck, but an outside winner would mean one less coveted spot in the playoffs. The NASCAR oddsmakers believe Chris Buescher has the best shot to be one of these drivers at +1200.

He proved he could do it when he won this race one year ago. After multiple heartbreaking losses, Buescher could lock his way into the playoffs. Martin Truex Jr. has never won a superspeedway race in the Cup Series but has a 77-point buffer to the cutline.

It would take a disaster for him to miss the playoffs. His NASCAR odds to win sit at +1800. Ty Gibbs notched a strong third-place season, saving what has been a brutal summer stretch. He has never won or even finished in the top-10 at a superspeedway in Cup. Avoid Gibbs at all costs.

Ross Chastain is just one point ahead of Bubba Wallace for the final spot. Chastain (+1800) has only one Daytona top-10, though he has won at Talladega. Wallace (+1600), meanwhile, has been red-hot with three-straight top-10s prior to getting collected in a crash at Michigan. While he always seems to run up front at superspeedways, he also has an affinity for crashing. His rain-shortened Talladega win is his only superspeedway top-10 in his career. While he needs to stay clean, we are avoiding Wallace.

The two most notable drivers that need to win are Richard Childress Racing teammates Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon. Dillon won at Richmond, though it was encumbered by NASCAR, meaning he cannot use it to make the playoffs. He has wrecked drivers for the win three times and will surely be a dart without feathers. His winning odds sit at +3500.

Busch has yet to win in 2024, which would be the first season in his 20-year career he has failed to win. Like Truex, he is not the best at superspeedways, though did win at Talladega last year. The number eight team has looked better in recent weeks, capped off by a fourth at Michigan. His odds are better than his teammate’s at +1400.

2. Don’t Bet the House on a Winner

Daytona is one of the best tracks to make NASCAR picks as the draft bunches the field together, meaning almost anyone can win. Picking a winner is incredibly difficult, though we did correctly pick Ryan Blaney to win at Talladega last fall en route to winning the championship.

While the value is outstanding, with only Logano having odds below +1000. Superspeedways are also a breeding ground for the “big one,” a wreck that can instantly end a driver’s day. Every driver in the field poses strong value, so even a lower-stakes wager could bring a great return on investment.

But we will take a stab at picking a winner. Logano is a viable choice, as is Brad Keselowski, (+1600), who has won seven times at Talladega and is looking for his first Daytona victory. Daytona 500 winner William Byron boasts appealing +1600 NASCAR odds. Blaney (+1200) has a win and runner-up finish to his name at Daytona.

And we can’t ignore the red-hot Tyler Reddick, who won last week at Michigan and has seven-straight top-six finishes, with five being top-threes. He doesn’t have the best record on superspeedways, though he navigated through the last-lap chaos to win at Dega in the spring.

We will throw our dart at Keselowski, who could see the checkered flag at Dega before being bested by Reddick. We think he will get it done and win his second race of the season and his first at Daytona.

NASCAR Pick: Brad Keselowski +1600 to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400

3. Value Top-10 Picks Galore!

The only thing more common than upset winners on superspeedways are unlikely top-10 finishers. This year alone, John Hunter Nemechek (+500), Daniel Hemric (+500), Harrison Burton (+425), Corey Lajoie (+300) and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+300) have all notched top-10s at Daytona and Talladega.

Only two drivers have finished in the top-10 in both of those races: Alex Bowman and Noah Gragson. We can’t escape picking Bowman for a top-10, even at a superspeedway. After a couple weeks off, we are back to backing Bowman at +180. And there’s no reason not to back Gragson at +240.

Gragson’s Stewart-Haas Racing teammate, Ryan Preece, has three top-10s at Daytona and three more to boot at Talladega. His NASCAR betting odds sit at +425. Michael McDowell (+220), the 2021 Daytona 500 winner, has eight top-10s at Daytona, though he has failed to score a top-10 superspeedway finish since 2022.

Now, let’s take a look way down the list. In fact, at +2000, this driver has the longest NASCAR top-10 odds in the garage. Parker Retzlaff is making just his second Cup Series start this weekend and his first at a superspeedway. But it is hard to ignore the success he has had in the Xfinity Series.

Retzlaff has finished in the top-10 in all three of his Daytona starts and one of his two at Talladega. And the team he is driving for, Beard Motorsports, has shown they can compete at superspeedways, boasting six top-10s, including Anthony Alfredo at the Daytona 500. We are taking a shot and rooting for the underdog.

NASCAR Top-10 Picks: Alex Bowman +180; Noah Gragson +240; Ryan Preece +425; Parker Retzlaff +2000

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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