Silence before the Storm
NASCAR’s Speedweek at Daytona continues with the Truck Series and the Xfinity Series on Friday and Saturday. However, our focus is entirely on the NASCAR odds for this weekend and the Daytona 500.
We’ll review qualifying and the Duels at Daytona to help us find the best bet online to win the Daytona 500 outright.
Let’s check the latest NASCAR news, stats, injury reports, and NASCAR lines for Daytona 500. We’ve got plenty of NASCAR picks for you to consider.
Chevrolet Does it in Qualifying Again
Hendrick Motorsports Alex Bowman captured his third Daytona 500 pole position since 2018.
Bowman extended Chevrolet’s streak of capturing pole position for the Daytona 500 to 11 in a row and 15 of the last 16, edging out teammate and one-time 2023 Daytona 500 betting favorite Kyle Larson by 0.172 seconds. Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports finished with the top three qualifying rides for Daytona 2023.
However, historical trends don’t favor Bowman to win the Daytona 500 from the pole position. The last driver to take the pole position and win the Daytona 500 was Chase Elliott in 2016.
Duels at Daytona
Qualifying from Wednesday set the grid for Thursday night’s Duels at Daytona. Defending Cup Series Champion, Team Penske-Ford’s Joey Logano finished fifth in qualifying but won Duel 1 at Daytona, edging Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota’s Christopher Bell and teammate Ryan Blaney for the win.
Logano and Blaney are two of Team Penske-Ford’s three potential drivers that can win the Daytona 500.
Stewart-Haas Racing-Chevrolet’s Aric Almirola (+2000) was the surprise of qualifying and the Duels, outqualifying all three Team Penske-Ford drivers with the fourth fastest qualifying time. Almirola turned a great qualifying for the Stewart-Haas Racing team into a win in the Duel 2 at Daytona, edging out favorites Chase Elliott and Austin Cindric to win the Duel.
While many people doing online sports betting for the Daytona 500 are placing wagers on Chase Elliott or Denny Hamlin to win Daytona, Team Penske’s Cindric is a sleeper pick at +2000 odds, especially considering Cnidric’s form during Speedweek and the face he won the 2022 Daytona 500.
If Cindric wins back-to-back Daytona 500’s, he will repeat the same feat as Denny Hamlin in 2019 and 2020 and join the likes of Richard Petty, Cale Yarborough, Jeff Gordon, Hamlin, Sterling Marlin, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Jr (among others) who have won multiple Daytona 500’s.
Daytona 500 Race Information
- Race: 2023 Daytona 500: The Great American Race – 200 Laps (500 miles/3 sessions)
- Location: Daytona International Speedway, Daytona Beach, Florida
- Day/Time: Sunday, February 19, 2023, 2:30 P.M. ET
- Daytona 500 Live stream: NBCSports.com
Daytona 500 Outrights Betting Odds
Here is our list of favorites to win the Daytona 500 outright, with no caveats:
| NASCAR Daytona 500 – DRIVER (TEAM-MANUFACTURER) | ODDS TO WIN THE DAYTONA 500 |
| Ryan Blaney (Team Penske-Ford) | +1200 |
| Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports-Chevrolet) | +1600 |
| Denny Hamlin (Joe Gibbs Racing-Toyota) | +1200 |
| Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports-Chevrolet) | +1200 |
| Joey Logano (Team Penske-Ford) | +1200 |
| Ross Chastain (Trackhouse Racing-Chevrolet) | +1600 |
| Kyle Busch – (Richard Childress Racing-Chevrolet) | +1400 |
| Alex Bowman (Hendrick Motorsport-Chevrolet) | +2000 |
| Austin Cindric (Team Penske-Ford) | +2000 |
The odds in this chart are based on the time of publication. They are subject to change.
Daytona 500 Picks and Prediction
Now that we are caught up on where things stand and our top nine online sports betting picks to win the Daytona 500, it’s time to make a prediction and picks.
A Ford has won the last two Daytona 500s and four of the last eight Daytona 500’s. We’re favoring two of Team Penske-Ford’s drivers after qualifying and the Duels: we like Joey Logano or Austin Cindric to win either driver’s second-career Daytona 500.
While Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports have had great success in Daytona 500 qualifying, they have not been as successful in the race itself. Chevrolet machinery has only won once in the last eight years, while Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won the Daytona 500 since Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. won back-to-back Daytona’s in 2013 and 2014.
For potential Chevrolet machinery winners, we expect Kyle Larson to finish strong and improve on last year after claiming pole position but finishing down the order at the end of Daytona. Many people are favoring the likes of Chase Elliott in Chevrolet machinery, but if we’re looking for a second Chevrolet-based pick, we’re going for a little bit of a long shot and taking the pole sitter, Alex Bowman.
After all, you have the best chance of winning a race when you start first!
Austin Cindric is at +2000 in our Vegas NASCAR Lines. This means that if you wager $100 on Cindric, you have a chance to win $2000. Kyle Larson is +1600, offering a chance to win $1600.
The implied probability attached to the betting lines gives Cindric a 4.76% chance to win, with Larson at 5.88%.
