Contents

Daytona 500 Predictions: Ride Longshot Preece into Victory Lane on Feb 15

· Feb 14 - 5 minutes read

We like longshot Ryan Preece at +4000 to win the Daytona 500.
Add a prop on total cautions (7.5) to your Daytona picks
Make bank with our top Nascar picks! Join with our promo code HUDDLE125.

The long, cold offseason is over as the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season commences on Sunday with the 67th running of the Daytona 500. Not only is it the most prestigious race of the year, it also poses some of the best parity on the schedule, leaving great opportunity for value when making your NASCAR picks. We will search for those values with our NASCAR best bets for the Great American Race.

Daytona 500 Predictions: Ride Longshot Preece into Victory Lane Feb 16 — Ryan Preece | Meg Oliphant / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA

Who Will Win the Daytona 500?

1. Picking the Winner Amidst the Chaos

Per usual, the nature of superspeedway racing makes for incredibly close racing. Harrison Burton showed that nearly anyone in the field can win at Daytona following his stunning upset in August. Kyle Busch is currently the NASCAR betting odds co-favorite to win his first 500 at +1200.

Quite frankly, we believe that is due to the narrative of Busch replicating Dale Earnhardt’s feat of finally winning the 500 in his 20th try. In reality, Busch only has three superspeedway wins, with only one since 2008, per NASCAR betting trends.

Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott inexplicably sit towards the top of the leaderboard. Elliott has two superspeedway wins in 36 starts while Larson has never won. We will be going against the grain from the experts.

Ryan Blaney (+1200) is a far more conventional favorite. While he is better at Talladega, he has one Daytona win and 10 total superspeedway top-fives in his career. He nearly won the 500 in 2020, where he was bested by Denny Hamlin, who has won the season opener three times.

Hamlin’s most recent top-five Daytona finish came at the 2021 500, making his +1400 odds a bit more sensible. Other usual superspeedway co–favorites, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski, sit towards the top of the odds list.

While Keselowski has not won a superspeedway race since Talladega in the fall of 2021, he has been awfully close, with three second-places in the last two years alone. Logano’s recent success has been trending in the wrong direction, with five-straight finishes of 19th or worse.

While we won’t pick Keselowski with our online bet, we think his success could be key in determining the outcome. After all, RFK Racing teammate Chris Buescher was the only driver who beat him to the checkered flag at Daytona in the summer of 2023. But we aren’t going with Buescher.

We will go with the driver of the new, third RFK car, Ryan Preece. While his superspeedway numbers haven’t been fantastic of late, Preece has six-career top-10s. With RFK’s propensity to run up front, we think Preece will kick off the best opportunity of his Cup career with a win, with very appealing odds of +4000 for our Daytona 500 pick.

Pick: Ryan Preece (+4000)

2. Other Longshot Value Bets

For another fun underdog, look no further than Front Row Motorsports, who won a 500 with Michael McDowell and has another Talladega win under its belt. Todd Gilliland slides from the 38 to the 34 and is joined by Noah Gragson and Zane Smith.

Smith’s Daytona 500 odds at +6600 are particularly high, considering he has two starts in the 500 and came home 13th in both. He now has Ford power under the hood and could be up front with his teammates throughout the day.

Others who have shown speed this week are the duel winners Bubba Wallace and Austin Cindric, both at +2200, with the latter winning the 500 in 2021. Per NASCAR news, Chase Briscoe starts from the pole in his first start with Joe Gibbs Racing. His winning NASCAR odds sit at +3000.

Many thought Erik Jones had won the second duel before footage showing it was Cindric. Jones has won twice on superspeedways and his odds to actually take the checkered flag first are a very palatable +4500. While none of these fall under NASCAR best bets, there is definitely betting value so take a flier on either Smith or Jones.

Longshot Pick: Zane Smith +6600

3. Our Favorite Prop Specials

The BetUS Sportsbook is offering a handful of Daytona 500 specials 500. With Preece being our pick to win the race, we naturally think there will be a first-time winner at -240 odds. But we are a bit surprised by those odds. Of the 41 drivers that will take the green flag, 25 of them have won a Cup Series race. Based on those odds, “no” is the more likely outcome, especially since that consists of nearly all the top-tier talent. While we are banking on unpredictability, we think either side of this bet is fair.

If the race were to be unpredictable, that would likely come due to an excessive number of cautions. While last season’s 500 saw just five cautions, this was unprecedented, the fewest number of cautions since 2004. Especially with two stage cautions being built into the race, the question is whether there will be more than five cautions for incident or debris.

While the first two stages could very well be run cleanly, the end of the race tends to devolve into chaos. With the unlimited overtime system, more than seven cautions is certainly plausible for this NASCAR prop bet.

While it poses the lesser value of the two options, we believe this chaos will ensue and the number of cautions will exceed the over/under mark of 7.5. Don’t be afraid to include that in Daytona 500 picks and parlays.

Bet this pick: Over 7.5 cautions -175

Bet this pick: First Time Winner – YES (-240)

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.