Focus on Prop Bets for NASCAR Stop at Talladega
The wild-card race of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is upon us in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday. With lots of big wrecks and the common denominator of the draft, the largest track on the Cup circuit has been a breeding ground for upset wins and finishes.
Though it can be a crapshoot, we will try to make sense of the NASCAR Yellawood 500 odds for the most compelling betting landscape of the playoffs.
Don’t Get Carried Away
Predicting who will take home the checkered flag at Talladega is incredibly difficult. This is reflected in the NASCAR odds this week as co-favorites Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano sit at +1100. Despite the unpredictability, don’t get carried away. There is still a portion of the field that does not have the equipment to win.
Drivers like JJ Yeley, BJ McLeod and Brennan Poole have +50000 odds for a reason. We saw this at last year’s summer Daytona race where the backmarkers couldn’t keep up for the win even after two-thirds of the field had been swept up in wrecks. Don’t waste your money on this. But if you want to throw a top-10 bet on these guys, be our guest. That same Daytona race showed it was possible.
Desperate Blaney, Wallace Strong Bets
Our pick to win the YellaWood 500 is Ryan Blaney, who is in desperate need of a good finish after Texas left him sitting nine points below the cutline. Blaney has won two Talladega races, was the bridesmaid in the last two and has a win at Daytona to boot.
After letting a spot in the round of eight slip away on the final restart at Texas, Bubba Wallace sits just two points below the cutline. The Alabama-born driver won his first Cup race here in 2020 and has two runner-up finishes at Daytona. Beware though, as his propensity to run up front has left him vulnerable to wrecks, which is why his results at his home-state track leave a bit to be desired. He sits at +1400 to win in NASCAR odds, though a safer bet would be +200 to finish in the top five.
NASCAR Pick: Ryan Blaney +1200 to win the YellaWood 500
NASCAR Pick: Bubba Wallace +220 to finish in the Top-5
Larson, Busch, Truex Look to Reverse Superspeedway Luck
It looked like NASCAR Cup championship -favorite Kyle Larson would easily punch his ticket to the round of eight as he drove away from the field at Texas. But a wreck on a late restart leaves him just two points above the cutline. Larson has never won on a superspeedway, though he and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates have shown absurd qualifying speed in recent years. Throwing a dart at +1400 for him to win the pole seems more reasonable than his +2000 race-winning odds. Martin Truex Jr. has also never won a superspeedway race and his betting online odds (+3000) reflect that, sitting below numerous non-playoff drivers.
Perhaps no other driver in the field needs the win more than Kyle Busch, who finished last at Texas after crashing out while running in the top-10. He’s only won twice at superspeedways in his 18-year Cup career, though one of them did come at Talladega earlier this year. He is still a longshot at +2000 in NASCAR betting lines, though the No. 8 team will be desperate.
NASCAR Pick: Kyle Larson to win pole (+1400)
Several Non-Playoff Drivers Strong Bets
Erik Jones broke our hearts last week when a poor strategy call got him caught in a wreck that cost him what might have been a win. But we hope to bounce back this week, and we should, as we have a slew of non-playoff drivers that we think have a shot to finish in the top-10 or even top-five.
Daniel Suarez, never known as a strong superspeedway driver, has finished in the top-10 in two of three superspeedway races this year, including a ninth here in the spring. His NASCAR odds to do it a third time sit at +175.
Road course ringer AJ Allmendinger is also no slouch on the superspeedways, once scoring five-straight top-10s at Daytona dating back to his days at JTG Daugherty Racing. Even though he only has one superspeedway top-10 this year in his return to full-time Cup racing, he was outstanding while driving for Kaulig Racing in the Xfinity Series, scoring top-fives in seven of eight races in 2021 and 2022. Of all the drivers outside the playoff field, the Dinger is our favorite to finish in the top-five at +600 odds, with a still appealing +200 to score a top-10.
The only driver better on superspeedways might be Kaulig teammate Justin Haley, who has four wins in his Xfinity career and got his lone Cup win at a rain-shortened Daytona race in 2019. While it was a bit flukey, he was the car to beat at Daytona last summer before a rain-induced wreck wiped out half the field. Don’t be surprised to see both Kaulig drivers up front throughout the night and when the checkered flag waves.
NASCAR Top-Five Best Bet: AJ Allmendinger +600
Top-10 Best Bets
There following are other non-playoff drivers that have won a superspeedway race, along with their top-10 odds: Jones (+175), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+125), Aric Almirola (-110), Austin Cindric (+125), Austin Dillon (+140), Michael McDowell (+175).
In this instance, Cindric and McDowell are our favorites, as Ford figures to run up front with Keselowski, Blaney, Logano and Chris Buescher, and will need drafting partners. Let’s throw fellow blue oval driver Todd Gilliland into the mix, who has finished in the top-10 in each of the last two Talladega races.
NASCAR Top-10 Picks: Daniel Suarez +175; Justin Haley +275; Austin Cindric +125; Todd Gilliland +275
