The NASCAR Cup Series season continues on Saturday with the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway. It will mark the second round of the playoffs and the second-to-last race of the Round of 16.
The drivers will contest over 400 laps on the .75-mile D-shaped layout, also known as the “America’s premier short track.” The raceway has previously hosted major racing events such as the International Race of Champions.
For this year, the Auto Parts 400 was renamed the Federated Auto Parts 400 Salute to First Responders to remember and honor the victims of the Sept. 11 attacks, which occurred 20 years from the day of the race.
Hamlin Favored To Win
NASCAR Odds today show Denny Hamlin as the betting favorite (+400 at BetUS) to win Saturday’s race. He is the second choice (+450) to win the title on the NASCAR Cup Series outright betting market. Consider two things when betting Saturday’s event: Hamlin won the first race of the playoffs in Darlington and he usually performs well in Richmond.
Regarding last weekend’s Cook Out Southern 500 race, Hamlin was simply phenomenal and proved to be a class above his competition. Even Kyle Larson has commented on Hamlin’s driving on the race, claiming he could not catch up to the 40-year-old as he cruised to his first win of the season.
Here we go, folks! @KyleLarsonRacin is closing in on @dennyhamlin for the lead! Get to NBCSN for this finish! #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/L4ApdX3QHD
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 6, 2021
“Yeah, it was a matter of time,” said Hamlin after the race. “We can’t just keep leading inside 10 laps to go every week and not get a win.”
Across 29 starts in Richmond, Hamlin has averaged an impressive 9.0 finish and has won three races (2016, 2010, 2009). What’s more, he has finished inside the top five in three of his last four starts, including a fifth- and third-place finish in 2019 and a runner-up finish earlier this year.
Will he be able to emulate that success this weekend is anyone’s guess, but it wouldn’t be fair to doubt his ability to do so given his past form. Hamlin travels to Richmond with four top-three finishes in his last five starts, having missed a podium only once — at Daytona (20th) — over that stretch.
Truex Could Be Threat
Martin Truex Jr. stumbled into the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with three victories but only one top-nine finish across the last five rounds of the regular season. Still, he has delivered in Darlington, where he placed fourth and is now viewed as one of the main favorites to win at Richmond.
It’s fair to question why sportsbooks offer such short odds on Truex (+450 at BetUS), but the answer is quite simple. Like Hamlin, the 2017 NASCAR Cup Series champion loves to drive in Richmond.
Although his average finish across 30 starts isn’t convincing (16.9), we have to remember that Truex won in Richmond twice across his last four starts. What’s more, he hasn’t finished worse than fifth across the previous five – with two wins, one runner-up finish, a bronze medal and a fifth-place finish earlier this year.
With that in mind, you can’t argue with the odds found on BetUS sportsbook, as the price more than fairly represents Truex’s chances to claim another checkered flag at one of his best tracks.
Predictions
In sports betting, it’s wiser to look for drivers/teams who are underrated by the sportsbooks rather than simply picking your bet based on who you think has the best chance to win. However, for this race, the two go hand-in-hand as it’s unlikely any of the outsiders will manage to upset Hamlin, namely because he is both in good form and traditionally delivers at the Richmond Raceway.
We have touched on two names in this NASCAR betting preview, both of whom should have an excellent chance to come out ahead. Even though you could make a case for Kyle Busch, who clocks in at +750 at BetUS, he failed to deliver last week in Darlington and finished 35th.
The desperation narrative could make you trust Busch more. However, we don’t see this as an optimal way to pick the best bet for this weekend’s NASCAR action. Joey Logano (+800 at BetUS) is another driver who could impress, having finished fourth or better in six of his last eight starts at Richmond, but he has yet to prove that he is in the form needed to challenge the top dogs.
Meanwhile, current points leader Kyle Larson (+450 at BetUS), hasn’t been too consistent at Richmond. He has finished outside of the top-10 eight times and has managed to end the race inside the top eight only five times.
