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Hollywood Casino 400 Picks: Keep Riding Larson 9/29

  • The Hollywood Casino 400 is the first of three races in the round of 12 of the NASCAR playoffs
  • Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the race at +350
  • See BetUS NASCAR odds, picks and predictions for Sunday’s stop in Kansas.

 

After an underwhelming finale of the round of 16, the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Kansas Motor Speedway for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday. Coming off a dominant win at Bristol, Kyle Larson is the favorite to win at +350. In May, Larson won the Kansas race by a historically slim margin. Can he pull off the season sweep? Stay tuned for our NASCAR best bets for the week.

Hollywood Casino 400 Picks: Keep Riding Larson 9/29
Kyle Larson, driver of the #5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet | James Gilbert/Getty Images/AFP

 

3 Predictions for the Hollywood Casino 400

1. Stick With Larson

Last week, we correctly predicted Larson, who was not the favorite, to win at Bristol. He did more than just win, dominating and leading 462 of 500 laps. The win has Larson locked into the Round of 8 and he now stands alone as the favorite to win the Cup Series championship at +400.

There may not be a better track for Larson to carry that momentum into than Kansas. En route to beating Chris Buescher for the win by .001 seconds, Larson ran up front all day, accumulating 57 total points. In the five races prior to 2024, Larson finished in the top-five four times, including a win in the fall of 2021.


We are not even going to try to deflect to other options. For the second week in a row, we are backing Larson to win in our NASCAR picks as he builds momentum toward winning his second Cup championship.

NASCAR Pick: Kyle Larson +350 to win the Hollywood Casinos 400

 

2. Look For Bell, Hamlin to Run Up Front

The only driver in the field hotter than Larson might be Christopher Bell. While he has not won since Charlotte on Memorial Day weekend, Bell has scored five top-fives in the last eight, with one of those finishes being a sixth at Richmond. While not one of his best tracks, Bell has been consistent at Kansas in his career.

Though without a win to his name, he has two top-fives and six top-10s in nine career starts. Bell poses more of an upset opportunity than Larson with his winning NASCAR betting odds being +1000. This also gives him an appealing +180 top-five odds to continue his hot streak, and we even like his -175 top-10 odds. While not providing potential payout, it seems like one of the safer bets in the field.

Bell’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate, Denny Hamlin, survived and advanced with a strong fourth-place run at Bristol after a disastrous two races. Kansas is the best opportunity for all drivers to set themselves up to advance, with the unpredictable Talladega and Charlotte Roval on the horizon.

But this is especially true for Hamlin, who has been downright fantastic at Kansas, of late. He has six-straight top-fives and eight in the last 10 races, including three wins. He has the second-best winning NASCAR lines at +400. We are more inclined to go with his -170 odds for a seventh straight Kansas top-five.

While we have to include him in this section, as he is still a playoff driver, we would be remiss to not mention Alex Bowman is yet again being overlooked by the NASCAR oddsmakers. Bowman advanced to the round of 12 thanks to two top-10s in three races, including making good on our bet last week at Bristol. He also has six-career Kansas top-10s, including four-straight. His +150 top-10 odds in NASCAR prop betting must be capitalized on.

NASCAR Top-5 Pick: Denny Hamlin -130; Christopher Bell +180

NASCAR Top-10 Pick: Alex Bowman +160

 

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2. Veterans Truex, Busch Among Top-10 Options

While a cop-out, the easiest place to look for non-playoff drivers as top-10s picks are the drivers that were eliminated after Bristol. It was a pit-road speeding penalty that doomed Martin Truex Jr.’s championship hopes in his final full-time season. Bristol marked the eighth-straight finish of 20th or worse.


We believe his teammates, Bell and Hamlin, will be fast, so there’s no reason Truex shouldn’t be. His track record at Kansas has even more longevity than Hamlin, finishing in the top-10 13 times in the last 15 races. This should be a given, but his 2024 struggles leave him with palatable -175 odds.

Truex’s former teammate, Kyle Busc,h has also had a disappointing season, missing the playoffs entirely and is in danger of not winning a race for the first time in his 20-year career. He was red hot at the end of the playoffs, but struggled at Watkins Glen and Bristol. He was strong at Kansas during his Gibbs days and has two top-10s in three races since joining Richard Childress Racing. We’ll take his +120 top-10 odds in our NASCAR predictions.

One driver with surprising odds that we will look to fade is Chris Buescher. Losing in devastating fashion in May has left him with -120 online betting odds. Before this year, his last Kansas top-10 came in the spring of 2021.

NASCAR Top-10 Picks: Martin Truex Jr. -175; Kyle Busch +120

 

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

Questions of the Day

Who is the favorite to be the top-finishing Ford driver?


Ryan Blaney +200

Who will be the winning manufacturer?


Chevrolet +150

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