NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 Prop Picks & Betting Analysis

The Coca-Cola 600 is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series and Kyle Larson is the defending champion for Sunday’s race at Charlotte Motor Speedway. Larson is the favorite to repeat in the race, but there are a number of drivers who offer value in prop bets.

Let’s check the latest news, stats, reports, and NASCAR odds for Coca-Cola 600. We’ve plenty of predictions for you to consider.

Larson’s Dominance Worth Noting

While Kyle Larson may not be the most consistent at Charlotte, he was dominant last time out. Even from the jump in qualifying, he became the pole-sitter. On top of that, he won both Stage 1 and Stage 2 before going on to win the race. The true dominance came in laps led, where he led 82 percent of the total 400 laps. Dominant performances like that don’t come around very often. Could he still wind up in Victory Lane on Sunday? Absolutely. Will he do so in the same fashion? Likely not. He’s -300 to finish in the top 10, -140 for top five and +150 to finish top three.

Pick: Fade Larson

Consistency vs Dominance

We just talked about the dominance Larson had at Charlotte last season. That’s almost expected, considering he was the Cup Series Champion last season. However, it’s the previous year’s champion I’m eyeing for this weekend.

Chase Elliott’s +650 outright odds are juicy as it is. Elliott won the season Larson was out. Either driver has a great chance to win this race, but Elliott’s been a pinnacle of consistency at Charlotte.. Elliott came in second behind Larson in last year’s Coca-Cola 600. We mentioned Larson won both stages on the way to his win. Elliott was second in both stages.

Elliott has another second-place finish in the first race at Charlotte back in 2020 and a fourth-place finish back in the 2019 Coca-Cola 600. If you want to go back a little further, he finished second at Charlotte in 2017’s fall race.

Pick: Elliott to Finish Top-Three (+170)

Will it be Toyota’s Day?

As the odds currently sit, Vegas has three Toyota drivers in the top five for outright odds this weekend. Kyle Busch has been incredibly consistent at Charlotte. He’s finished inside the top five in just under half of his 33 career races, and in the top 10 just under two-thirds of the time.

Martin Truex Jr. does have three wins here, as well as 13 top-10 finishes In 30 races.

However, it’s Denny Hamlin is in the Toyota I’m eyeing to back. He finished seventh in last year’s race second the year before that. His only win at Charlotte came in an All-Star race., but he’s finished inside the top 10 in almost two-thirds of his Cup Series starts at Charlotte. His record on intermediate tracks is also a huge factor. His 16 wins on 1.5-mile tracks are the third-most among active drivers. He was on my outright list last week, but came up just short and finished second.

Hamlin to finish in the top five at +125 was going to be my bet. But, considering he has a great chance to win outright, betting him to be the best-finishing Toyota at +350 has a bit more value.

Pick: Hamlin best-finishing Toyota (+350)

No More Bad Luck for Bowman?

It’s hard to think of someone who’s had tougher luck at Charlotte recently than Alex Bowman. While he ran well last time out, finishing fifth, Bowman likely feels like he’s left something on the table or, in this case, the track after his 2020 performances.

In the first of the two races held at Charlotte in 2020, he won both stages and lead 164 laps. But that didn’t equate to a win or even a top-10 finish, as he placed 19th. It was a similar story in the second race. He finished 31st after starting the race in second, winning Stage 2 and leading 51 laps.

If you go back further, he finished seventh in 2019 and ninth in 2018. His problem has been finishing, but I think this could be the week the bad luck ends for Bowman. Whether or not that means a trip to Victory Lane remains to be seen, but he’ll definitely be in the mix at the end.

Pick: Bowman to Finish Top-Five (+175)

Chastain Continues Magical Season

At the start of the season, there’s likely not many people that would have told you Ross Chastain would be one of the only two drivers with multiple wins coming off the All-Star Race. But here we are.

Not only is Chastain currently fifth in the Cup Series standings, he also leads all drivers in top-five finishes with seven. After crashing out of the Daytona 500 and a 29th-place finish at Fontana, Chastain took off. He finished third at Las Vegas and second at Phoenix and Atlanta before pulling off a win in Austin at the Circuit of the Americas, a road course. Four weeks later, he took the checkered flag at Talladega, followed by a third-place finish at Dover. In his last Cup Series race at Kansas, he finished seventh after qualifying 11th.

I mentioned in an earlier outrights piece that Chastain would find a way onto my card in some capacity almost every week going forward and this week is no exception. Chastain to finish in the top five, something he’s done seven out of 13 times this season, seems like a pretty safe bet at +150.