2024 NASCAR Cup Series Picks: Bet Byron to Win Championship 11/10

· Nov 08 - 6 minutes read

Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick are the four championship contenders.
Blaney is the favorite in NASCAR lines to win the championship race at +350.
See BetUS sportsbook for the odds in Sunday’s race.

After 35 races filled with thrilling finishes, upset winners and controversies, only four drivers remain in the hunt for the NASCAR Cup Series championship, which will be settled Sunday at Phoenix Raceway. Defending champion Ryan Blaney raced his way into the finale with a win last week at Martinsville and is the NASCAR betting odds favorite to win Sunday’s race at +350. He will be chased by William Byron, Joey Logano and regular season champion Tyler Reddick.

NASCAR Championship Picks: Top Predictions for 11/10 Finale — William Byron | Meg Oliphant/Getty Images/AFP

Who will be the highest finisher of the four and secure the Cup? Which non-playoff driver might spoil it by winning? We have correctly picked Reddick and Blaney’s wins in back-to-back weeks and had Blaney correctly pegged as the 2023 champion.

Can we finish the season on a high note? Strap in for our final NASCAR best bets of the 2024 season.

Top 2 Predictions for NASCAR Cup Series Champion

1. Is Byron Worthy Betting Favorite?

Blaney’s quest for back-to-back championships has looked eerily similar to last year, finishing second at Homestead and winning at Martinsville both times. Blaney’s runner-up finish in the finale last season was one of six-straight top-five finishes in the desert. After a good but not great season, Blaney is heating up at the right time.

Blaney is attempting to become the first driver to go back-to-back since Jimmie Johnson way back in 2010? He is both the betting favorite to win both Sunday’s race at +350 and the series championship at +200, but we will not include him in our NASCAR picks.

On the opposite trajectory of Blaney is Tyler Reddick, who has had a disastrous playoff stretch after being crowned regular-season champion. He has finished outside the top-10 in seven of nine races and went for a wild flip at Las Vegas. But those struggles were quelled when Reddick won at Homestead thanks to a stunning last-lap effort.

Unlike Blaney, though, Reddick does not have the best Phoenix numbers. While he does have two third-place finishes, those are just two of three total top-10s in nine starts. His best finish in the season finale is 19th. Those poor results combined with his playoff struggles has led to skepticism. NASCAR oddsmakers have him as the longest shot to win the race at +800 and the championship at +340.

The year is divisible by two, which means you can’t count out two-time champion Joey Logano. Even though it has been a down year, where he would not have made the playoffs on points without winning the chaotic Nashville race, making him the most improbable contender since Ryan Newman in the inaugural 2014 playoffs.

But his win at Atlanta at fuel-mileage upset at Vegas gives him a chance to win another championship. Though he did win at Phoenix in 2022 to clinch the championship, his numbers in the desert are inconsistent, with two other wins but three-straight finishes outside the top-10. Logano winning the race at +280 odds in online betting would be the perfect finish to this dumpster-fire of a season.

That leaves William Byron, who was controversially awarded the spot after NASCAR penalized Christopher Bell for race manipulation, though two Chevrolet teams were also penalized for not making the 100-percent effort to pass Byron, which would have knocked him out.

Regardless, Byron’s championship hopes are still alive and he has arguably been the most consistent of the four contenders. Per NASCAR stats, he has been fantastic in the playoffs riding six-straight finishes of sixth or better. Byron does not have a win, and champions have won the championship race under the current format all but once (Blaney, 2023).

It would be the perfect time for Byron to visit victory lane at +600 NASCAR betting odds. While he does not have the numbers like Blaney, he did win at Phoenix in the spring of 2023 and was fourth in this race last year.

We think a Byron win would be deliciously controversial, shining a light on NASCAR’s widely-panned playoff format. So, we will embrace the chaos and crown William Byron as the 2024 Cup Series Champion with our NASCAR betting predictions.

Bet on William Byron at NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race

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2. Who Might Play Playoff Spoiler

While the spotlight is on the championship four, there will be 36 other drivers vying for the win or strong finish, and we are here to find the best value prop picks. Ross Chastain was the first ever non-championship four driver to win a championship race last season and boasts strong Phoenix numbers overall, with four finishes of sixth or better in his last five starts. His top-five NASCAR prop odds are +250, though we will go with the safer bet of -130.

Another driver quietly excellent of late in the desert is Chris Buescher. He was the runner-up here in March and finished fifth in last year’s finale. With that recent success, Buescher’s odds +150 for a top-10 finish is a value we cannot resist.

While our bet did not cash, Chase Briscoe ran in the top-10 for most of last week’s race and his numbers at Phoenix are just as strong as Martinsville. He won here in the spring of 2022 and has four top-10s in his last five starts. We are back in on Briscoe at +120.

While it has been something of a down season for Michael McDowell after making the playoffs in 2023, one of his three non-drafting oval top-10s this year came at Phoenix, marking his second-straight top-10. He is our favorite low-stakes, high-payout bet of the week in NASCAR Cup prop picks at +600 odds.

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