While the NASCAR Cup Series technically is on break this week as drivers prepare to race for the $1 million purse in the All-Star Race, the Xfinity Series makes its return after not racing since May 7 for the SRS Distribution 250 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Let’s check the latest news, stats, reports, and NASCAR odds for NASCAR Xfinity Race. We’ve plenty of predictions for you to consider.
What’s New?
Things will be interesting, as JR Motorsports is looking for its fourth-straight win. Things will be relatively wide open for drivers looking to get into victory lane, but there are no full-time Xfinity drivers with a win at Texas on their resume.
Kyle Busch won this event last season, but will not be participating in this year’s race.
However, there are a pair of Cup Series drivers that will be participating; William Byron and Tyler Reddick.
JR Motorsports has enjoyed wins from three different drivers on its streak. Noah Gragson got things started with a win at Talladega before a Josh Berry win at Dover two weeks ago and a Justin Allgaier win at Darlington back on May 7.
Are Favorites Worth It?
One of the Cup Series drivers participating in this Xfinity Series race is Byron, who Byron has had quite the season at the Cup Series level and is one of only two drivers with multiple wins on the season. As a result, Byron enters as the NASCAR betting favorite at +330.
In 2017, Byron was the winner of the Xfinity Series for JR Motorsports. While none of his four wins that season came at Texas Motor Speedway, he did place in the top 10 in both races with a seventh-place finish in the April race and a ninth-place finish in the November race. As a member of the Cup Series, Byron has found recent success at Texas. His best career finish came last time out at the Fall race where Byron finished second after leading 55 laps.
Noah Gragson enters with the second-lowest odds to take the checkered flag. He’s second to Ty Gibbs, despite being tied with 2,025 points. Of the 11 races, Gragson has placed in the top five in eight of them, so when he’s not winning, he’s competing. Gragson has the makeup and look of NASCAR’s next star driver, but with such short odds at +400, there might not be a lot of value.
Allgaier enters with the third-shortest odds at +450. Currently, fourth in the standings, Allgaier has four top-five finishes to go with his win. Allgaier finished fifth in last season’s Xfinity Series but ran really well at Texas in both races last season. He placed second in the spring race and fourth when the series came back around in the fall.
Best of the Rest
Gibbs enters at +550 and atop the Xfinity Series standings. However, he’s never run at Texas in his young career. Bettors backing Gibbs will do so more on what he’s shown over the last two seasons with seven wins in 29 races than prior experience here.
Berry enters at +800 while AJ Allmendinger enters at +1000.
Berry has a win on his 2022 Xfinity Series resume coming back at Dover. Even outside of his win, he has three other top-five finishes. In his only Xfinity Series race at Texas last June, he finished 19th.
Where’s the Value?
There’s some good value left with Allmendinger at +1000. In two career Xfinity Series races at Texas, Allmendinger has finished sixth both times while also starting on the pole in both races.
At +1200, there’s value on Reddick as well. He’s finished inside the top 20 at Texas in each race he’s been part of the Cup Series, including a second-place finish in his rookie season back in 2020 and a ninth-place finish last time out at Texas in October. While still a full-time Xfinity driver, he finished second in the fall race at Texas in 2019 and second again in the spring race of 2019.
Picks
Despite not much value at the short number, Gragson at +400 will be on my card. He’s simply been too consistent and in the running late to think he can’t add Texas to his already-impressive 2022.
Gibbs at +550 for being atop the standings should feel like a steal, it’s just hard to subscribe to the thought that he’ll win despite never having raced here as a member of the Xfinity Series. Instead, Allmendinger at +1000 has some value. While he hasn’t won or cracked the top five, he was the pole-sitter for both races he’s started here, so we know he runs fast here.
Lastly, put Reddick on my card at +1200. We’re still waiting for him to take the checkered flag as a member of the Cup Series. However, at +1200 racing back in the Xfinity Series feels like a steal for the former series champion.
