NASCAR Xfinity Race Odds, Picks & Betting Analysis, May 28

Who’s Driver to Beat?

A.J. Allmendinger comes into the 13th race of the season at Charlotte atop the Xfinity Series standings with an even 500 points. He’s had an impressive season to this point, finishing in the top five in exactly half of the 12 races, including a win at the Circuit of the Americas. While Allmendinger has typically done well on road courses, he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 this season.

JR Motorsports had enjoyed wins from three different drivers before their winning streak was snapped by Reddick at Texas last week. Noah Gragson has the makings of a superstar. He got a win at Talladega. Josh Berry kept the JRM momentum rolling with a win at Dover and Justin Allgaier followed with a win at Darlington on May 7.

Who’s the Favorite?

Ty Gibbs enters as the betting favorite at +400. He was atop the Xfinity Series standings going into last week but was overtaken by Allmendinger after finishing 12th, three spots behind Allmendinger. He’s currently third, eight points behind Gragson. While Gibbs had never run at Texas, the same can’t be said for this week. In last season’s race at Charlotte, Gibbs was spun out in Stage 1 but went on to lead 100 laps before taking the checkered flag. That’s the only race Gibbs has run at Charlotte in the Xfinity Series. The 19-year-old grandson of Joe Gibbs has had an impressive career to this point with seven wins in 30 races.

Gragson enters Saturday with the second-lowest odds to take the checkered flag at +450. Of the 12 races, Gragson has placed in the top five in two-thirds of them, so even when he’s not winning, he’s competing. I fully expect Gragson to be in the running toward the end of the race, especially after not finishing last week’s race and coming in 36th. Expect a bounce-back week from Gragson.

Allgaier enters with the third-shortest odds at +500. Allgaier sits at fourth in the standings and has had a good season to this point. In 12 races, he has five top-five finishes to go with his win. While he didn’t take the checkered flag at Texas last week, he did finish fourth. In 19 races at Charlotte, he has 10 finishes inside the top 10 and five inside the top five, including a second-place finish in 2019.

Where’s the Value?

Despite being the points leader, Allmendinger enters with +600 odds for this race. He’s only run twice at Charlotte in the Xfinity Series with not-so-great results: a 26th-place finish and a 33rd-place finish in last year’s race at Charlotte. But he got an unlucky break, as he finished second in Stage 1 and Stage 2 before his brakes failed. I’ll still put Allmendinger on my card.

Just as Reddick and William Byron did last week, Austin Dillon will be racing in the NASCAR Xfinity Series this week. Dillon has placed in the top 10 in just under a third of his starts at Charlotte, including each of the last two times out. He did pick up a win at Charlotte back in the spring of 2017, so at +800, I’ll take Dillon on my card.

Zach’s Picks

Despite not having much value at the short number, Gragson at +450 will be on my card. He’s in the hunt to win every week and I think he bounces back with a vengeance this week at Charlotte.

Allmendinger got a bad break last season when his brakes went out. He was running consistently all day in second place and I believe would’ve made a move for the checkered flag if he had stayed there until the end. The +600 odds for the points leader is a bargain.

It worked out last week when we put one of the Cup Series drivers on our card with a +1200 cash from Reddick. That, on top of Dillon’s Cup Series win at Charlotte, gives me all the confidence in the world to do the same thing and take Dillon at +800.