NASCAR Cup: Best Bets for Daytona 500

Daytona 500: Breeding Ground for Upsets

Daytona and Talladega are the two most difficult tracks to make NASCAR picks as the draft is both a huge equalizer and breeding ground for crashes. It often becomes survival of the fittest, which has led to some surprising winners, particularly in the last three years of the Daytona 500. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. took the checkered flag last year, his first victory since 2017. In the two years prior, rookie Austin Cindric and veteran Michael McDowell scored their first NASCAR Cup series wins.

Stenhouse has +2000 NASCAR odds to do it again while McDowell is at +1500 and Cindric is at 3300.

Could we see another first-time winner? Or an upset winner in the likes of Stenhouse? There are expected to be upward of 14 drivers who have never won a Cup race.

Could it be Joe Gibbs Racing heir Ty Gibbs, who seems poised to break out in his second Cup season? Or fellow Toyota driver John Hunter Nemechek, who returns to the series after dominating the Truck and Xfinity Series the last few years? What about rookie Zane Smith in his first year for Spire Motorsports, who finished a solid 14th in his first crack at the 500 last season? All of these options are longshots, and none are on our NASCAR picks list.

And the Daytona 500 Winner is …

The aforementioned Hamlin is looking to etch his name in the history books, joining Cale Yarbrough and Richard Petty as the only drivers to win the Daytona 500 four times. He has the second best NASCAR Las Vegas odds at +900 to get it done. Hamlin’s former teammate, Kyle Busch, has yet to win the 500, though he did win at Talladega last season, his inaugural victory at Richard Childress Racing. His odds to get the monkey off his back are +1200.

Then there’s reigning series champion Ryan Blaney, the NASCAR betting odds favorite to win his first 500 at +900. He has three straight top-two finishes at Talladega, one Daytona summer win, and nearly took the checkers in the 2020 Daytona 500.

RFK duo Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski finished one-two at Daytona last summer and the NASCAR oddsmakers have taken notice. Buescher has the third-best odds at +1100 while his boss has +1200.

Could this finally be the breakthrough for 23XI driver Bubba Wallace, who has been a bridesmaid twice at the 500, in addition to a win under his belt at Talladega. His odds are back at +2000, alongside Toyota veteran Martin Truex Jr., who lost the 500 in heartbreaking fashion back in 2016. This may be Truex’s final chance as it seems to be his last full time Cup season.

Only 4 drivers have more than one 2nd place finish in the Daytona 500 and have never won the race:

Terry Labonte – 3
Ryan Blaney – 2
Bubba Wallace – 2
Charlie Glotzbach – 2 pic.twitter.com/OW65xLeYZq

— Trey Ryan (@TreyRyan99) February 6, 2024

We are going to dig a little deeper for something of an underdog. Erik Jones has won twice at Daytona, though it was back in his Joe Gibbs Racing days. Legacy Motor Club had a dreadful first season under the Jimmie Johnson-led ownership group, but things are looking up as the team joined Toyota, which should greatly improve results.

Jones and his +2200 NASCAR lines are always fast at Superspeedways and we believe he will be the one hoisting the Harley J. Earl Trophy when it’s all said and done.

NASCAR Pick: Erik Jones +2200 to win the Daytona 500

Who Could Sneak Out a Top-5 Finish?

Due to all the crash attrition, it seems every year there is a surprise driver that winds up in the top-5. Who might that be this year? While not much of an underdog, Alex Bowman has always been a speed demon in 500 qualifying, but he backed that up by finishing fifth and sixth at Daytona last season. His odds are +550 to score back to back 500 top-fives.

While better known as a road course ace, AJ Allmendinger has quietly become an under-the-radar superspeedway racer, scoring a top-10 in six of his last eight Daytona races. He is +750 to finish in the top five.

And speaking of veterans, what about David Ragan? He’s finished in the top-10 twice in the last three 500 races in Rick Ware Racing entries and has a win at both Daytona and Talladega. This year, he will drive a third RFK entry. He should be much quicker in years past and could very well be running up front with his teammates Buescher and Keselowski when it’s all said and done. He also holds very appealing +1000 NASCAR betting odds to notch a top-five.

NASCAR Top-5 Picks: Alex Bowman +550, AJ Allmendinger +750; David Ragan +1000

Questions Of The Day