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Ride Toyota Over Chevys in NASCAR Advent Health 400

Nearly one quarter through the NASCAR Cup Series, the story has been the trading of blows between Toyota and Chevrolet, particularly Hendrick Motorsports, as a Ford driver has yet to see victory lane. Unsurprisingly, when the series rolls into Kansas Speedway on Sunday for the Advent Health 400, both Chevy and Toyota drivers headline the field of favorites, with Kyle Larson sitting atop with +350 NASCAR betting odds.

Who is our pick to see Victory Lane? Who else poses strong value? Let’s break it down with our NASCAR best bets for the week.

Ride Toyota Over Chevys in NASCAR Advent Health 400
Ride Toyota Over Chevys in NASCAR Advent Health 400

 

Hamlin, Toyota Look to Continue Kansas Dominance

It’s honestly a bit surprising that Larson is the favorite given the stranglehold Toyota has had on Kansas Speedway. They’ve won four straight races there and five of the last six. The wealth has been spread well as four different Toyota drivers have won here. Denny Hamlin has been particularly dominant, with four wins to his name, five straight top-fives and three straight top-twos.

His 2024 season has been wild with three wins but only one other top-10 – an eighth at Las Vegas. But he did win last week at Dover and it is so difficult to bet against him here, when Toyota will likely be the cream of the crop. We like Hamlin to score his series-best fourth win at +450 odds. We also like the slightly more conservative +140 odds for his fourth straight top-three finish.

While he doesn’t have Hamlin’s dominance, Martin Truex Jr. is remarkably consistent at Kansas. He has 12 top-10 finishes in 14 races dating back to 2017, but he has yet to win since sweeping at the track back in 2017. While his -250 odds for yet another top-10 doesn’t provide much of a payout, it is still one of the safer picks in the field. Barring a mechanical or pit road issue, we would be surprised to not see MTJ running up front.

Pivoting from the Joe Gibbs stable, 23XI drivers Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace have both won at Kansas. Reddick’s overall numbers are not as strong as Wallace, with only four career top-10s in nine career starts. But his win last fall puts him squarely on our radar. Like most of the favorites, his top-five and top-10 odds aren’t particularly appealing, leaving us out on Reddick.

However, we are in on Wallace. He won here in 2022, followed it up with a fourth to start 2023 and ran up front before problems left him outside the top-30. His top-10 odds are far more appealing than Reddick’s at -150. But we would go as far as to back his +250 odds to finish in the top-five.

 

Larson, Byron Headline Chevy Drivers

Five of six Chevrolet wins have come from the Hendrick Motorsports stable, with William Byron, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott all visiting victory lane. While slightly surprising that Larson is the favorite, he still has five straight top-10 finishes, including a win back in 2021. Despite only having one win under his belt this year, the 2021 champ has been consistent, scoring five top-fives. His odds to score another is a less-than-appealing -130.

We are out on the favorite altogether this week. On a similar note, Byron has been solid, albeit unspectacular, at Kansas with seven top-10s in the last 10 races. But only two of those are top-fives. We are not confident in his ability to do that this week and his -250 odds do not pose strong value, leaving us out on him as well.

So, are we out entirely on Chevys? Of course not. We think many pose strong value. Alex Bowman, the lone Hendrick driver to not win, is heating up with three top-10s in his last four races and was very competitive last week at Dover. Bowman has finished in the top-10 in three straight at Kansas and seven of his last 10. Yet, his top-10 odds still pose reasonable value at -105.

Looking outside the Hendrick stable, Ross Chastain has been strong at Kansas of late, scoring three straight top-10s before a 13th-place finish last fall. His odds for another top-10 are -135. Our favorite longshot top-10 pick is Austin Dillon. It has been a miserable season for the Richard Childress Racing heir, scoring just one top-10 at Texas a few weeks ago.

In addition to Texas and Kansas being similar layouts, Kansas is historically one of Dillon’s best tracks. He has three top-10s in six races, with two others being inside the top-15. His +700 odds could be a tremendous value and poses a strong payout, even on a lower wager.

NASCAR Top-10 Picks: Alex Bowman -105; Austin Dillon +700

 

Who Will Hold the Torch For Ford?

Ford’s 2024 has been one to forget, failing to score a win through 11 races. With Toyota’s dominance at Kansas and Hendrick’s strong season, it seems unlikely it will happen this week. But who is the best value from the blue oval brigade? The manufacturer’s struggles have provided decent value that would have otherwise not happened.

We will go with Joey Logano, who finished fifth and sixth at Kansas last season. While his best runs have not been on intermediate tracks, if we have to take a shot on a Ford, we will take Logano’s +145 top-10 NASCAR betting odds.

NASCAR Top-10 Pick: Joey Logano +145

 

 

Questions Of The Day

Who will be the winning team?


Joe Gibbs Racing +165

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