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South Point 400 Picks, Make Larson NASCAR Best Bets 10/20

· Oct 19 - 5 minutes read

Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the NASCAR South Point 400 at +350.
Eight drivers remain in the hunt for the NASCAR Cup Series championship.
See BetUS sportsbook odds, picks and predictions for Sunday’s stop in Las Vegas.

When the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Sin City for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, it will be the first of three three opportunities for the eight remaining playoff drivers to lock themselves into the championship race. After a dominant win at the Roval last week, Kyle Larson is, unsurprisingly, the NASCAR betting odds favorite to win at +350.

NASCAR South Point 400 Picks 10/20: Make Larson Best Bet — Kyle Larson | Meg Oliphant/Getty Images/AFP

Will Larson get his third straight Vegas victory? Or will someone else race their way to Phoenix? We will break it all down with our NASCAR predictions for the week.

Top 3 Predictions for the South Point 400

1. Larson for the Win

There is no way to look past this. Kyle Larson is the +350 favorite for a reason – he has been utterly dominant in Vegas of late. In the last two races, he has gone wire-to-wire, earning the maximum 60 points while taking the victory. Beyond that, he finished second in the spring of 2023 and has four other top-threes to his name.

It goes to show that the next highest winning odds (William Byron) currently sit at +800. Larson has now won two of the last four races overall and sits an absurd 33 points above the playoff cutline on playoff points alone.

We have no reason to not back Larson this week and believe he will be the first driver to clinch his spot in the championship four. Larson also is the favorite to win the NASCAR Cup Series championship with auto racing futures odds of +375.

NASCAR Pick: Kyle Larson +350 to win the South Point 400 Casino

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2. Include Reddick in Prop Betting?

Should “the field” end up beating Larson, who might it be taking the checkered flag? While not one of his best tracks, Denny Hamlin has been strong at Vegas. While his last win came in 2021, he has six top-10s in his last eight starts. Hamlin currently sits below the cutline in his quest for an elusive first championship. Hamlin will need a strong finish to keep up with Byron, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick. Hamlin’s winning odds sit at +900.

Reddick, driving for Hamlin’s team, skated through the round of 12 without a top-10. In fact, he only has one top-10 in six playoff races, a sharp contrast from his torrid summer stretch. Vegas has been fairly kind to Reddick, with five top-10s in his last six starts. However, his -190 odds do not pose great value, but is a relatively safe bet.

A better value for your NASCAR prop picks is Reddick at +260 to be the top finishing Toyota. While Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. have a track record of success, they tend to finish in the latter half of the top-10.

One playoff driver we are fading is Joey Logano. After initially missing the round of 8, Logano advanced after Alex Bowman was disqualified last week at the Roval. Sitting 11 points below the cutline, Vegas has not been one of Logano’s best tracks of late.

Though he has three wins in his career in Vegas, Logano has just two top-10s in his last six starts. Rather than a top-10 bet, we would prefer betting him as the top finishing Ford driver at +240.

NASCAR Pick: Tyler Reddick +260 to be the top finishing Toyota

3. Chastain, Gragson Among Value Betting Picks

With Las Vegas being an intermediate track, it will be far more difficult to find NASCAR top-10 value picks than Talladega and the Roval, but we are up for the task. We will do something rare and take a non-playoff driver to finish in the top-five. It’s hardly a stretch as Ross Chastain has a win on the season, three weeks ago at Kansas.

Chastain has been excellent at Vegas in the last three years, scoring four top-fives in five races, with a 12th in the spring of 2023 being the lone outlier. He’s found trouble in the last two races, but had four top-10s in the prior five races. Get behind his +300 odds for another Vegas top-five finish.

One driver who made the playoffs but was unceremoniously eliminated after the round of 16 is Martin Truex Jr. It has been a disastrous 2024 for Truex, who is still searching for his first win in his final full-time season. He only has one top-10 in his last 11 starts.

However, he is bordering on being comedically consistent at Vegas. In his last 20 starts, he has 16 top-10s. Even with his lackluster stretch, a Truex top-10 seems to be one of the safer picks of the week, even though his -125 NASCAR lines don’t provide much in the way of a payout.

After starting the year strong, Noah Gragson has fallen back down to earth along with his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates. Gragson’s most recent top-10 came 10 races ago at Indianapolis, but Las Vegas might be his best track in his short Cup Series career. One of his seven top-10s this year came at Vegas, finishing sixth in March. He narrowly missed the top-10 with an 11th in 2022. Even with his recent cold-streak, we are backing Gragson at +450 with a low-stakes wager.

NASCAR Top-5 Pick: Ross Chastain +300

NASCAR Top-10 Picks: Martin Truex Jr. -125; Noah Gragson +450