Straight Talk Wireless 400 NASCAR Betting Picks and Predictions on 10/27

Even after a disappointing Vegas showing, Kyle Larson is the favorite to win the race at +300. Who will join Logano in vying for the championship? Or will someone play spoiler? We’ll cover it all with our NASCAR best bets for the week.

3 Top Predictions for the Straight Talk Wireless 400

1. Bet Reddick, Fade Champions Blaney, Elliott

In addition to Logano stealing a spot in the championship 4, Vegas was a nightmare for multiple playoff drivers. Tyler Reddick went for a flip in the infield with Chase Elliott involved as well. Defending series champion Ryan Blaney also crashed while Denny Hamlin had trouble in the pits and failed to score any stage points.

These four now face an uphill battle of advancing, sitting at least 27 points out of the top four, meaning a win will likely be necessary. Which of these four has the best shot to win and should be backed in online betting?

That honor clearly goes to Reddick, who has been downright phenomenal at Homestead. While yet to win a Cup race, he has three top-fives in four starts and has two wins in the Xfinity Series. The playoffs have been a disaster for the regular season champ, with his lone top-10 coming at the opener in Atlanta.

In spite of that, we are going to pick Reddick for the win at +700, posing great value. Homestead comes at the perfect time as Reddick’s season hangs in the balance. And with that said, we are throwing a low-stakes wager on his +1000 NASCAR futures odds to win the series championship.

Meanwhile, Homestead has not been particularly kind to the other three. While Blaney had a runner-up finish last year en route to the championship, he only has one other top-10 since 2017. Elliott’s most recent top-10 came back in 2020, en route to his own championship. Hamlin won that 2020 race, but his next best finish since 2017 is seventh.

Fade these three drivers with your NASCAR picks as their championship hopes come to a close.

NASCAR Pick: Tyler Reddick +700 to win the Straight Talk Wireless 400.

2. Ride Byron’s Top-5 Streak

After Vegas, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell all sit comfortably above the cutline. Larson is the favorite and in three Homestead races since missing in 2020, he has one win and another top-five, though he crashed out last season. While he looked poised to dominate last week, he fell multiple laps down after even worse pit road woes than Hamlin.

When Larson is good, he is good, but his only non-drafting oval top-10 in the playoffs was his win at Bristol. We are surprised that NASCAR oddsmakers have him as such a strong favorite. We much prefer his Hendrick Motorsports teammate in Byron, who has quietly been red-hot of late.

While he hasn’t won since Martinsville in April, Willy B has four-straight top-fives, all on different kinds of tracks. While not one of his best tracks, he has been solid at Homestead, winning in 2021 and adding a fourth last season. He has incredibly appealing odds to win at +700, but we will bet on his top-five streak continuing at +125 for our NASCAR predictions.

As for Bell, his charge to the lead ran out of laps at Vegas, narrowly missing the coveted spot in the championship 4. Though he did win this race last season, Homestead hasn’t been one of his best, with only one other top-10 in three starts. We are only comfortable picking Bell for a top-10, but his -280 odds aren’t appealing enough.

NASCAR Top-5 Pick: William Byron +125

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3. Truex, RCR Drivers Among Best Top-10 Bets

Now that we’ve covered the playoff field, let’s see which of the remaining drivers pose a strong top-10 value. Martin Truex Jr. made good on our pick last week, just his second top-10 in his last 12 races. Though his NASCAR lines sit at -125, we are confident in Truex’s consistency at Homestead, with five top-10s in his last seven starts.

The disastrous year for Richard Childress Racing has been well-documented, though they showed some signs of life late in the regular season. But we are actually in on both Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon for a top-10 this week.

While it seems Busch’s record of 19 straight seasons with a win will be snapped, Homestead is one of his best tracks, with six-straight top-10 finishes prior to 2023. Even though he has cooled off considerably from his four-race top-10 streak, including nearly two wins, we will bet on Busch’s history at +120.

Dillon has also cooled off following his stunning and controversial win at Richmond, scoring just one top-10 in the 10 races since. But Homestead might be his best track, outside of Richmond. Dating back to 2017, Dillon has four top-10s in seven starts. But even when he was outside the top-10, he finished no worse than 12th.

Despite his struggles this season, Dillon always seems to find his way toward the top-10 at Homestead and we think his +360 odds makes for a great low-stakes pick in NASCAR prop betting.

NASCAR Top-10 Picks: Martin Truex Jr. -125; Kyle Busch +120; Austin Dillon +360

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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