Value Props Abound in Daytona 500

Searching for the Upset Picks

Thanks to the draft and propensity for crashes, Daytona has become a breeding ground for upsets. While we’ve seen three upset winners in as many years, searching for the next upset top-10 finisher is far easier than finding the winner. There is a field full of drivers with previous superspeedway success that have a chance to do it again. We’ve already tabbed AJ Allmendinger and David Ragan as potential targets, but here are some more sneaky top-10s we are adding to our NASCAR picks list and even some matchups.

Reddick Solid Value as Toyotas Rise to Top of Duels

As we predicted, after a poor single-lap qualifying effort on Wednesday, the entire Toyota brigade stepped up and looked quick in race trim, with Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell winning the respective duels. In a matchup, the NASCAR oddsmakers have given Bell the likelier chance to best Reddick. But we love Reddick’s +120 odds compared to Bell’s -150 at the BetUS sportsbook, feeling it’s just as likely either could be toward the front of the field when the checkered flag waves.

1. NASCAR Pick: Tyler Reddick +120 to finish ahead of Christopher Bell.

Preece Among Top-10 Best Bets in Fast Fords

Drivers like Logano, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher and Brad Keselowski will likely be leading the charge for the blue oval brigade, but who else might be up there when the laps start ticking down? Austin Cindric, the 2022 Daytona 500 winner, finished second in his duel while 2021 winner Michael McDowell was running up front before a crash took out nearly half the field. McDowell’s teammate, Todd Gilliland, has a much better track record at Talladega than Daytona and has +325) odds in Las Vegas odds to score his second Daytona top-10.

Ryan Preece made headlines for his horrifying crash in last year’s summer race. While known as a short-track ace, Preece had three-straight top-10s at Daytona from 2021 to 2023. Of all the Stewart-Haas Racing contingent, we believe Preece has the best shot to bring it home in the top 10. Perhaps the biggest sleeper is Harrison Burton, driving for the Wood Brothers. He has a best finish of third in the 500 and was in the thick of it at the end of the second duel.

2. NASCAR Top-10 Picks: Ryan Preece (+240); Todd Gilliland (+325); Harrison Burton (+275)

New Beginning for Rick Ware Racing?

Even with the draft, drivers must keep a quick enough pace to keep up with the draft. Previously, Rick Ware Racing was something of a laughingstock, typically filling out the field. But the team took strides to improve this offseason, signing Justin Haley and strengthening its alliance with RFK Racing. Haley and Riley Herbst were both running toward the front of the second duel before the massive pileup.

Herbst (+325) will be a popular pick in online betting as he finished in the top-10 in last year’s 500 in his first career Cup start, but we prefer Haley, who has a strong track record on superspeedways. His one Cup win came at Daytona back in 2019, and even though it was a bit flukey, he was in position to win the 2022 summer race before the infamous crash. We believe Haley can hang with the Fords toward the front of the pack and be in a position for a top-10.

3. NASCAR Top-10 Pick: Justin Haley (+275)

Fade Jimmie Johnson, Prop Up Hocevar, Burton

One of the biggest storylines of Thursday’s first duel was seven-time series champion and two-time 500 winner Jimmie Johnson needing to race his way into the starting lineup. After sustaining minor crash damage, the Hall of Famer needed a puzzling move from JJ Yeley to make the race. The NASCAR oddsmakers took notice and are far less bullish on Johnson than they once were, tabbing Carson Hocevar and Harrison Burton at minus odds to finish ahead.

As seen in the duels, Johnson has a propensity to find and sometimes cause trouble at superspeedways. Despite having two Harley J. Earl Trophies, those were both over a decade ago and Johnson was not considered a strong superspeedway racer in the latter part of his career. Even with the less appealing odds, we are in on the two youngsters over the most experienced driver in the field for our NASCAR prop picks.

4. NASCAR Matchup Pick: Carson Hocevar (-120) to finish ahead of Jimmie Johnson.

5. NASCAR Matchup Pick: Harrison Burton (-115) to finish ahead of Jimmie Johnson.

One More Prop From the Road …

The aforementioned AJ Allmendinger is one of our favorite drivers this week. Despite being known as a road racer, the Dinger ripped off four straight top-fives at Daytona in the Xfinity Series. We are taking advantage of him being given even odds against Corey LaJoie, who is a bit overrated on superspeedways. While he has some solid finishes and has been up front at the end others, he always seems to find trouble. We’ll take a chance on Allmendinger, who has finished in the top-10 in his last two 500 starts.

6. NASCAR Pick: AJ Allmendinger (Ev) to finish ahead of Corey LaJoie.

Questions Of The Day