Xfinity 500 Race Predictions 11/3: Bet Blaney to Hit Victory Lane

We predicted Tyler Reddick’s thrilling win at Homestead last week. Can we find another winner? Stay tuned for our NASCAR best bets for the week.

3 Predictions for the Xfinity 500

1. Bet Ryan Blaney to Win

Of the six remaining playoff drivers vying for the final two spots in the championship race, there is an immense amount of collective success at Martinsville. After yet another underwhelming finish, Kyle Larson sits a mere eight points behind Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron for the final spot.

Like at most tracks, Larson has been excellent of late at Martinsville, with three top-two finishes in the last four races, highlighted by a win in the spring of 2023. Once the championship favorite, Larson has failed to score a top-10 in the two round of eight races.

The other driver with a realistic shot to advance on points is co-favorite Denny Hamlin, clinging to the hopes of his ever-elusive first championship. It seemed Hamlin had a real shot at winning Homestead, but he failed to capitalize and was left in third following Reddick’s last-lap run.

Hamlin has a whopping 19 top-five Martinsville finishes in his 20-year Cup career. While three of those have come in the last four races, his last win came all the way back in 2015. Yet, the NASCAR oddsmakers have tabbed him as the co-favorite at +415.

Former Cup champions Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott could technically advance on points, though they likely need a win. This is a far more likely outcome for Blaney, who is excellent at Martinsville. In his last 10 starts, he has seven top-fives, including winning this race one year ago (which we also correctly predicted) en route to the championship.

Blaney was first to see the white flag at Homestead before being bested by Reddick. Can he re-capture the magic from last season and defend his title at Phoenix at +590 odds? As for Elliott, it seems his title hopes are over. He does have one Martinsville win, but that came back in 2020. He finished third here in the spring, but has no other top-fives in the five races preceding that.

As it stands, Christopher Bell and William Byron would advance on points. Bell sits 29 points to the good and would need a disaster to not advance to Phoenix. His Martinsville numbers are not good, with only three top-10s in nine starts, though one was a win in 2022. We’re fading Bell in our NASCAR picks as his value is not strong, though we believe he will do enough to advance.

Byron sits in a more precarious position, only eight points above the cutline. Should Larson, Hamlin, Blaney or Elliott win, Byron will likely be in trouble. While Byron snapped his top-five streak last week, it was due to a sixth-place finish, giving him a top-six in the last five races overall.

While inconsistent, Byron has two Martinsville wins and odds sit at +900 for a third win. That offers more value than his NASCAR futures odds (+600) to win the Cup championship.

So, who wins? We will take a page out of our playbook from last season and go with Blaney at +590. He has momentum from last week and Martinsville has been very kind to him. In this scenario, he would join Reddick, Bell and Joey Logano in the championship four.

Bet on Ryan Blaney +590 to win the Xfinity 500

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2. Bet Logano for a Top-10

After his shocking strategy win at Vegas to race for his third championship, Joey Logano was downright bad last week, though Martinsville is the perfect place for him to get back on track and build some momentum for Phoenix.

Per NASCAR betting trends, Logano’s numbers are stupidly consistent at Martinsville, with 13 top-10s in his last 15 starts, including 10 straight.

While only one of those was a win, Martinsville is one of Logano’s best tracks. Possibly due to his poor run last week, the NASCAR oddsmakers have given him a great line of -150 for a top-10 finish. While not a terrific value, this is the safest of the week.

Now is a good time to mention our NASCAR prediction to win the series championship. As it stands, Logano, Reddick and Bell are co-favorites at +300. We hope you took our advice and threw a wager on Reddick at +1000 prior to Homestead since that value is completely gone. While our low-stakes, high-payout wager this week would be Blaney at +2500, coinciding with picking him as the winner, we will stick with Reddick, albeit at a much lower value.

Bet on Joey Logano -150 to Finish Top-10

3. Bubba, Briscoe Among Strong Value Picks

Lots of drivers that sit outside the championship conversation have great numbers at Martinsville. It’s been a disappointing year for Bubba Wallace, who missed the playoffs altogether while his teammate Reddick vies for a championship.

Wallace was having a great run last week before inexplicably disappearing from the front of the field. But his Martinsville numbers of late are strong, with three top-10s in the last four races. We will take his +120 odds for a top-10 in our NASCAR prop bets.

Chase Briscoe did make the playoffs following his dramatic walk-off win at Darlington. But Martinsville is his best track on the schedule, with five-straight top-10s in seven total starts. Stewart-Haas Racing, in their penultimate Cup Series race, tends to show more speed on short tracks, so there is no reason not to take the chance on Briscoe for his sixth-straight top-10 at +115.

In a similar vein, Briscoe’s Stewart-Haas Racing teammate, Ryan Preece, is a short-track ace. While his top-10 in the spring was his only one in nine starts, he has five top-20s and had a fantastic run at Homestead, running in the top-10 most of the day and finishing 10th. At +350, he is our favorite low-stakes pick of the week for online betting.

Bet on Bubba Wallace +120; Chase Briscoe +115 or Ryan Preece +350 to Finish in Top-10

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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