It’s all but locked up for Red Bull to win the 2023 F1 title. The constructor is not even a good F1 pick for outright betting, as bettors would need to shell out big for a small return. The true betting interest lies in who finishes behind Red Bull – a.k.a. the outright odds minus Red Bull. Currently, Mercedes and Aston Martin vy for this “title.”
F1 Outrights: Mercedes vs Aston Martin
Mercedes and Aston Martin are neck-and-neck regarding odds to win the constructors’ title outside of Red Bull. Mercedes sits at -165 while Aston Martin is at +175. After the Canadian Grand Prix, the former leads by 13 points despite Fernando Alonso consistently making F1 news with a strong season.
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But as great as Alonso has been – six podium finishes in eight races – Lance Stroll is dragging the team behind. Stroll, the son of Aston Martin’s team principal Lawrence Stroll, is eighth in the drivers’ standings, by far the weakest of the drivers from the “Big Four” teams.
Stroll started strong in Bahrain with a sixth-placed finish, then finished fourth in Australia. But he’s finished in the top six just once in the last five races. In fact, Stroll is just eight points ahead of Alpine’s Esteban Ocon, who found a way to finish third in the Monaco Grand Prix.
The inferiority of Stroll is what holds Aston Martin back, hence why Mercedes is favored by the sportsbook. Unless the Canadian finds a way to step up, the duo of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell feel like a more reliable pair.
Hamilton is fourth and 15 points behind Alonso in the driver standings. He’s had three podium finishes – two were in second place. Most notably, he never finished lower than sixth, making him one of the best bets online as far as consistency.
As for Russell, he’s sixth behind Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz. He’s struggled this year and has just one podium finish with two retirements. Still, he’s 28 points ahead of Stroll and has four top-six finishes to Stroll’s three.
Mercedes also outgained Aston Martin in points in four of the last seven races. And the German constructor revealed some new upgrades that could widen the gap between them and Aston Martin. The team keeps making gains as the season progresses while Alonso does his best to drag Aston Martin.
Ferrari Far Behind
And at a distant fourth place is the once mighty Ferrari. With 122 points, Ferrari is 32 points behind Aston Martin. The team managed just one podium finish in eight races. Charles Leclerc feels even more snakebitten this season, as he’s had just three top-six finishes and already has two retirements.
To think that just one year ago, Ferrari had Red Bull scrambling to start the 2022 season. Now, the latter is on the cusp of history, while Ferrari can be frequently seen at long online gambling lines to win anything.
Leclerc has also struggled in qualifying, an area where he used to be great at. Last season, he led everyone with nine pole positions. He had six by this time last year. Now, he has just one pole: Azerbaijan. Uncoincidentally, he reached his only podium in this race.
There are signs that Leclerc is starting to pick up some pace. He finished fourth in the Canadian Grand Prix and sixth in Monaco. And as for Sainz, the Spaniard has been consistent in finishing in the top six (six of eight races). But he’ll need more than that to lift Ferrari out of fourth place.
Even the staunchest fan won’t hold their breath on the Italian constructor to turn it around. A change in leadership did not alleviate the team’s issues. And even at +650, Ferrari makes for a bad F1 prediction to come from behind and finish next to Red Bull.