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Top Bets in Toyota Owners 400? Toyota Drivers, of Course

As the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Richmond International Raceway for the Toyota Owners 400, the race sponsor should be plastered across the front of the grid as top four NASCAR betting odds favorites are Toyota drivers. Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin sit as co-favorites to score what would be their second win of the season at +425 odds. Will Toyota go home happy? Or will a different manufacturer shock the field. Let’s break it all down with our NASCAR best bets.

 

Top Bets in Toyota Owners 400? Toyota Drivers, of Course
Top Bets in Toyota Owners 400? Toyota Drivers, of Course

Joe Gibbs Racing’s Bell, Hamlin Headline Favorites

While only winning one Richmond race since 2017, Hamlin’s consistency at his home-state track is downright shocking. In those 12 races, Hamlin has 10 top-five finishes, seven of those being top-threes. This is so much of a certainty that his NASCAR odds for a top-five is -150. We almost never bring up top-three bets, but based on his track record, +140 is in play.

Still, Hamlin’s top-five odds aren’t even the best in the field, with that honor going to his co-favorite, Bell. In seven career Richmond races, the driver of the number 20 has five top-six finishes, though Bell is still looking for his first checkered flag. His top-five odds sit at -160.

What about veteran Martin Truex Jr., who also has an abundance of Richmond success? He once won three of five Richmond races between 2019 and 2021. While he hasn’t won there since, he’s finished in the top-10 all but once in his last 10 starts, seven of those being top-fives. We are not sure if he’ll have the speed of his teammates, but his +110 top-five odds are far more appealing than his -250 top-10 odds.

While only having Richmond races under his belt and one top-10 to show for, Ty Gibbs has been on the cusp of winning his first Cup race for weeks now. He won both stages at Bristol and finished third last week at COTA. It would be shocking if Toyota didn’t bring speed, making his +850 NASCAR betting odds to win very appealing.

But we believe it will be Bell taking home his second checkered flag of the season. He has consistently shown speed but hasn’t been able to seal the deal. We believe Bell puts a bow on it on Sunday, but we are also very much in on Gibbs to steal the show at +850.

 

 

Fade Non-Gibbs Toyotas

Despite all this talk of impending Toyota dominance, we are keeping that to the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. A pair of 23XI drivers, Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace, have little success at Richmond, with zero collective top-10s. The same goes for Erik Jones, who hasn’t even mustered up a top-20 in his last five Richmond starts. If you’re looking to throw a dart, we think there are much better values out there.

 

Buescher, Keselowski Eye Repeat of Recent Richmond Success

Despite Hamlin and Truex being the cream of the crop at Richmond last summer, it was actually Chris Buescher who shocked the series by winning what would be his first of three wins in five races. The RFK Racing driver has been quietly heating up, with three-straight top-10s. While he has little Richmond success outside of the win, he also finished third in 2022. Could this be the Texas-native’s breakthrough race?

Buescher’s NASCAR betting odds are +1400 for another Richmond trophy, but we think a much safer bet would be his -125 odds to score his fourth-straight top-10 of the season.

It appeared his boss, Brad Keselowski, would take the most recent Richmond checkered flag, before he faded to a sixth-place finish. Luke Truex, Brad K’s Richmond success mostly came years ago, though he has two-straight top 10s. His odds for a third sit at -140. And he even has better odds (+1100) than Buescher to snap his 100+-race winless streak. But we aren’t so sure about that one.

 

Childress, Stewart-Haas Cars Among Strong Values

The 2024 season has not gone as planned for Richard Childress Racing drivers Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon. Dillon only has one top-20 in six races and has found himself in multiple incidents. Busch has had a bit more success, with two top-10s, including a third at Atlanta. But when he has been bad, he has been bad, including multiple misadventures at Bristol.

However, Richmond has been a stellar track for both drivers. Busch has 11 top-10s in his last 12 starts at the track, making his top-10 odds not particularly appealing at -130, and we are not taking the risk of having him finish any higher in our NASCAR picks. Dillon, meanwhile, has finished in the top-10 in the last six Richmond races, marking one of his best tracks. Despite his poor start to the season, we are all in on his +400 NASCAR bettings odds to turn the tides of his fortune and score a top-10.

Every time a short track rolls around, there will be discourse on Stewart-Haas Racing, which otherwise struggles elsewhere. Rookie Josh Berry is a short-track ace that led 25 laps at Bristol before settling for an 11th-place finish. But, more importantly, a pit-strategy set him up for a second-place finish when filling in for Chase Elliott at this race last year. He boasts appealing top-10 odds at +225.

But an SHR driver with even better odds is fellow short-track specialist Ryan Preece, who ran in the top-five for nearly the entire race and finished fifth, his only top-five of the season. If you are a risk-taker and think he can repeat that success, his NASCAR odds are +1200. But we are settling for the much safer +350 odds for a top-10.

 

 

Questions Of The Day

What is the best for the team of the race winner?


Joe Gibbs Racing (Ev)

Which Chevrolet driver has the best winning odds?


Kyle Larson at +875

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