Skip to content

Verstappen Expected to Win in Mexico’s Capital

The United States Grand Prix went down to the wire; however, in the end, Max Verstappen edged out a win to hold off Lewis Hamilton for another race. With that, Verstappen extended his lead to 12 points in the driver’s standings, and he will surely want to keep the distance following this weekend’s race.

For the 18th round, Formula One World Championship heads to Mexico City for the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix. The race will take place on Sunday on Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, for the first time since 2019, after the 2020 race was canceled due to COVID-19.

Red Bull's Dutch driver Max Verstappen leaves the pits during the qualifying session at the Circuit of The Americas
Darron Cummings / POOL / AFP

The F1 betting odds for next weekend show Verstappen as a clear favorite, which makes a lot of sense since he is in great form and has won here before. However, you should never count out Hamilton, who won in Mexico in 2016 and 2019 and has proven time and time again that he can compete with his Red Bull rival.

Who will come out ahead, and are there any outsiders worth betting on online sports betting markets? We will answer that and more with our free Formula 1 betting preview!

The Drivers To Watch

Thin Air Should Help Verstappen

Verstappen is priced as the favorite to win the 2021 Mexican Grand Prix, which is fair given his success over the year and that he has a faster car than Hamilton. However, as we saw with the tight battle at the United States Grand Prix, the difference between Verstappen and Hamilton is rather small.

“I think I’ve aged about 25 years in that race,” said Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner

“It’s big for us to beat Mercedes here; that’s a big win for us.”

Verstappen won the last race, albeit with only two seconds to spare, further confirming that both Red Bull and Mercedes cars are extremely fast. As the season goes on, it’s also becoming evident that Verstappen and Hamilton are pretty even – and it’s fair to say that the two are as even as they can get ahead of the Mexico race.

Still, there is a reason why Verstappen is priced at only -150. He has won here twice before (2017, 2018) and even drove the fastest qualifiers in 2019. However, he had to settle for a sixth-place finish.

Given how close the frontrunners are, you might wonder why the 24-year-old is priced at lower odds than the Brit. And the answer is simple – Mexico City’s elevation.

Located at 7,350 feet (2,200m) above sea level, Mexico City has far less dense air, and those are the conditions where Red Bull’s smaller turbo-charge should have the edge over Mercedes. Numerous times before has Red Bull has proven that its engine can perform well in thin air without sacrificing its energy and power, and that’s what we can expect to happen next weekend.

Although you could make a case to bet now on Hamilton, who is still an elite-level driver, the fact is that he will have to compete with Verstappen in suboptimal conditions.

Perez Could Do Well

Verstappen’s teammate, Sergio Perez, currently sits in the fourth spot in the 2021 driver’s standings, with one win, four podiums, and 150 points. He is 35 points short of Valtteri Bottas and a whole 125.5 and 137.5 points behind Hamilton and Verstappen, respectively.

Although it’s clear that Perez won’t be competing for the world title this year, he has had an excellent season. What’s more, Perez has been in exceptional form of late, claiming back-to-back third-place finishes in Turkey and the United States.

Beyond Perez’ excellent recent form, we must also remember that Perez is a Red Bull driver; hence the air density advantage Red Bull cars will enjoy next weekend also applies to him.  Admittedly, Perez hasn’t won on his home track yet and hasn’t placed higher than seventh, but he should do much better this time out.


The aforementioned air density advantage Red Bull will enjoy over its competitors is enough to warrant a bet on Verstappen. The offered betting odds aren’t high, but there’s a good reason for it, and even at -150, the Belgian driver presents a great betting option.

You also can’t go wrong with a smaller bet on Perez to show up. If either of the two favorites in Verstappen and Hamilton crashes out or make an error, Perez will be right there to capitalize on the situation.

Perez is in great form, has a perfect car for the Mexican Grand Prix, and is getting a big thumbs up from us at +1200. Alternatively, a bet on a podium finish isn’t a bad option.

Pick: Max Verstappen to win (-150)

Pick: Sergio Perez to win (+1200)