Which Driver Has Eclipsed Their Indianapolis 500 Odds?

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Palou Leads Chip Ganassi

The defending series champion has the shortest IndyCar betting odds for the Indianapolis 500. At +600, Alex Palou is the prohibitive favorite to win this iconic race. Pato O’Ward is also listed at +600. Palou leads his Chip Ganassi teammates Scott Dixon (+800), Linus Lundqvist (+2500), and Marcus Armstrong (+5000).

The team last won the Indy 500 in 2022 with Marcus Ericsson, now with Andretti Global. Ericsson is +1000. Otherwise, this is Chip Ganassi’s only win at the Brickyard in the past 11 seasons. Dixon is a previous winner (2008).

Palou looked dominant in the $1 Million Challenge at the Thermal Club just as he did last season. He won five races and did not finish lower than eighth for the whole year. However, he did not win any of the five oval races. His best result was a third-place finish at the Texas Motor Speedway.

Additionally, favorites have only won two of the last 12 Indy 500 races. This opens the door for someone such as Josef Newgarden at +800 to capture the Indy 500.

Newgarden Dominated Oval Tracks

Newgarden finished fifth in 2023 but he was just behind Palou with four victories. And all four of these wins came on the oval tracks, including the Indy 500. The two-time champion is typically snakebitten in this course as he struggled in 2022 and 2023. But he’s not a bad bet online as he is the clear frontrunner for Team Penske.

His IndyCar odds are long considering how far his teammates were from winning previous races. Scott McLaughlin (+1200) and Will Power (+1500) have not finished in the top 10 since 2018 when Power won. He also was the 2022 IndyCar Series champion so that should count for something. Meanwhile, McLaughlin finished third last season and finished on the podium in both 2024 races thus far.

History is also not on Newgarden’s side as no driver has won the Indy 500 in consecutive years since Helio Castroneves in 2001 and 2002. The previous to do it was Al Unser (1970-71). But it’s all about overcoming odds here as the Brazilian is familiar with.

Castroneves Leads Underdogs

Castroneves is one of just four drivers to win the Indianapolis 500 four times. And he did it in underdog fashion as he came from nowhere to capture the 2021 race. This is a race that Palou also remembers but in a bitter fashion.

Palou dueled Castroneves for most of the final 80 laps. But Castroneves took the lead on lap 199 and never looked back. This was Castroneves’s only victory in the last seven seasons. He won as a +2800 underdog, which is the second-longest line for a winner.

Alexander Rossi won the 2016 Indianapolis 500 as a rookie at 66-1. And while Castroneves is once again a longshot at +4000, Rossi has “short” odds at +1200. He will look to outduel his teammate, O’Ward from Arrow McLaren. The American may once again prove to be the Indianapolis 500’s best bet.

Takuma Sato (+2200) and Conor Daly (+3500) are other notable names with the former having won in 2020. Daly was the lap leader in 2021 but has typically not produced good results in the Indy 500 despite being a NASCAR driver.

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