Both Teams Struggling to Cover Spreads
The Los Angeles Clippers look to get back in the win column on Monday against the Miami Heat following a tough loss to the Indiana Pacers over the weekend. LA squandered a 45-point game from Paul George and lost to Indiana 131-130.
Miami, meanwhile, is coming off a win over the Jazz and has already notched one victory over the Clippers this season.
Heat: ATS Struggles
I know it’s not a goal of any NBA team to cover games but to win them. Still, the Heat have been awful in that area this season, with the third-worst return on investment (ROI) against the spread (ATS) in the NBA at -27.52%. With a 13-22-2 record against the spread, Miami has lost backers -11.20 units and are one loss away from the worst ATS record in the NBA.
One issue I see with this team right now is the nagging injuries to the starting lineup that have plagued them for most of the season. Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson are questionable for Monday while Jimmy Butler is probable with a knee issue. Expect Dewayne Dedmon to miss Monday’s game, too, due to a foot injury.
Butler is expected to play after getting the night off on Saturday. And Tyler Herro has been playing great during the Heat’s recent tough stretch. Herro finished with 29 points, nine boards and six assists for the heat on Saturday. He also hit the game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer to lift the heat over Utah on the road.
Clippers: Profitable ATS
Unlike the Heat, the Clippers have a winning record against the spread at 20-18 with an ROI of 0.48%. With a profit of 0.20 units, it’s not much, but far better than the Heat at any point this season.
What we like about the Clippers is that they are heading in the right direction with a 9-3 ATS record in their previous 12 games and an ROI of 14.55% in their last five.
Despite their apparent turnaround, it’s impossible to ignore how poorly the Clippers’ offense is playing. They rank 28th in scoring and rank dead last in putting up points in the paint. While their defense is top-three in terms of scoring, their offense isn’t doing its part, with a two-point shooting percentage of 49.7%.
On a positive note, the Clippers are relatively healthy, with Nicolas Batum the only question mark on Monday as he deals with an ankle injury.
Heat vs Clippers Game Injuries
Heat vs Clippers Head-to-Head
These teams meet for the second time this season after Miami took the first game 115-110. The Clippers covered as +6½ point underdogs, and the total went over for the 7th meeting in a row between Miami and LA.
Heat vs Clippers Game Information
- Game: Heat (19-18) vs Clippers (21-17)
- Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
- Day/Time: Monday, Jan. 2, 10 p.m. ET
- Heat vs Clippers Live Stream: NBA Game Pass
Heat vs Clippers Betting Lines
Heat vs Clippers Picks & Prediction
I’m not particularly impressed by either team right now. But I do expect this to be a close game. Therefore the Heat as +2½ underdogs makes a lot more sense than trusting the Clippers’ offense. At +125, Miami isn’t a bad bet to win outright, with Butler coming off a day of rest.
The Clippers are listed at -145 in our Vegas NBA Lines. This means that if you wager $100 on the Clippers, you have a chance to win $69. The Heat are +125, offering a chance to win $125 on a $100 wager.
The implied probability attached to the betting line gives the Clippers a 59.18% chance to win, with the Heat 44.44%.
Heat vs Clippers Trends
Heat vs Clippers Edge
Heat vs Clippers Results
Heat vs Clippers Game Summary
Clippers vs Heat Previous Game (Dec. 08, 2022)
Both the Los Angeles Clippers and Miami Heat have lost games to the two worst teams in the Eastern Conference this week. Only one of them will get back in the win column when they tangle Thursday night in South Beach.
These teams are both treading water well below expectations but could rocket up the standings if and when they put everything together. While we wait to see if that happens, let’s use their first season meeting to do some online gambling.
Los Angeles is 2-3 when playing on zero days of rest this season, and the two wins were both at home and both by just two points. The fact that they have to do this the day after their first overtime affair of the season makes it much more daunting.
Keep an eye on the Butler situation. One of these nights, he will be healthy, and this team will play with some anger and take it out on the other side. If he’s in the lineup Thursday, we like the Heat to look more like the team that defeated the mighty Boston Celtics on the road last week and less like the one that got pancaked by the Pistons.