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Mavericks Time to Dominate? NBA Finals Game 3 Top Player Prop Bets

The NBA Finals have delivered two entertaining games, and the series heads to Dallas for Game 3 on Wednesday night. My impressive 44– 30 record on player prop bets since the start of the playoffs is a testament to our expertise and research.

 

Mavericks Time to Dominate? NBA Finals Game 3 Top Player Prop Bets
Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks | Adam Glanzman/Getty Images/AFP

The Boston Celtics took care of business and protected their home floor, defeating the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1, 107-89, and Game 2, 105-98. Teams that win Game 1 have won the NBA Finals 70.1% of the time, and teams that have taken a 2-0 series lead have gone 31-5 all-time in the NBA Finals (86.1% of the time). History tells us the Celtics are headed toward their 18th championship title.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will look to bounce back and protect their home court now in Games 3 and 4.

The NBA Finals continue on Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Best 3 NBA Player Props – Celtics vs Mavericks Game 3

1. Mavericks PG Luka Doncic Over 3½ Made Threes

Dallas is priced as a 3-point favorite in Game 3 after being underdogs in the first two games. I expect Dallas to make adjustments and throw their best punch here, desperate to get a win and back into the series. Over the last ten NBA Finals, the winner of Game 2 has gone 3-8 in Game 3. We have also seen favorites go 15-5 over the last 20 NBA Finals games, including the Celtics in this series. There are plenty of signs that point towards Dallas on Wednesday.

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving combine to make the most talented backcourt in NBA history, and they will display that in Game 3. Doncic played well in Game 1, finished with 30 points, and shot 4 of 12 from beyond the arc in 38 minutes. Luka and Kyrie sat on the bench with 5 minutes and 17 seconds left in the fourth when Jason Kidd conceded and pulled his starters. In Game 2, Luka shot 4 of 9 from deep and scored 32 points in 42 minutes. Doncic became the youngest player to finish with a 30-point triple-double in finals history.


The 25-year-old from Slovenia has proven he can produce on the biggest stage in his first NBA Finals appearance. Now he returns home, and with the crowd behind him, I expect another masterful performance. Boston has allowed a ton of three-pointers above the break. This is where Luka is lethal.

Boston allowed the third-most threes per game above the break (10.2); only the Lakers and Jazz allowed more from this zone. Boston’s defense is phenomenal, defending the corners, which leaves them susceptible to shots at the top of the key.

In Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Tyrese Haliburton shot 6 of 14 from beyond the arc, hitting all six three-pointers from above the break. In the prior series, Donovan Mitchell shot lights out from three, making 4 of 11, 5 of 7, and 7 of 12 from downtown against Boston!

Doncic has made at least four threes in six consecutive games. Luka has accomplished this in six of his previous ten matchups with Boston. Since February, including the playoffs, he has splashed at least four triples in 34 of 49 games overall (69%) and 11 of his last 16 games at home, playing at least 35 minutes (69%). I trust Doncic to step up on the biggest stage with his team desperate for a win. You could opt for an alternate line of five threes, but I’m sipping the juice. Watch Luka light it up!

 

 

2. Mavericks PG Kyrie Irving Over 23½ Points

As I mentioned, the Mavericks’ backs are against the wall when they return home for Game 3. Kyrie Irving has pulled a disappearing act in the first two games of the finals, but I’m expecting an explosion and a vintage Kyrie performance.

Irving scored 8 points in the first quarter of Game 2 but finished the game with 16. He’s been abysmal against Boston, but that ends on Wednesday. The Celtics don’t have many holes defensively, but they did struggle at times to slow down explosive guard play.

The Celtics saw opponents launch the seventh-most three-point attempts per game against them this season. In Game 1, Boston allowed Dallas to attempt just three corner threes–an area where they averaged 11.6 attempts before this series! In Game 2, that trend flipped with Dallas attempting 12 corner threes. Irving was lethal from the corners for Dallas, shooting a team-high 49.3% from the corners. He averaged 27 points per game at home this season compared to just 24.2 on the road. Count on Kyrie to go off on Game 3.

 

 

3. Mavericks C Daniel Gafford Over 8½ Points

One thing we’ve known betting the NBA playoffs is role players always perform better at home. The most significant question mark entering Game 3 is the availability of Kristaps Porzingis after he injured his ankle in Game 2. I’m approaching this game as if the unicorn won’t be available, and this will open up the paint for the Mavs.

The Mavericks desperately needed to add size, and they did that when they traded for Gafford from the Washington Wizards this season. The athletic center will impact this game with Porzingis out or limited. Gafford scored 8 points in 14 minutes in Game 1 and 13 points in 23 minutes in Game 2. I expect Gafford and the rookie Derrick Lively to be much more active in the paint in Game 3.

Boston was vulnerable in the paint against the Cavaliers and Pacers in the second round and conference finals. They allowed 50 points per game in the paint in those two series after allowing the ninth fewest points in the paint per game during the regular season. We watched Evan Mobley put up substantial numbers in each game against Boston without Porzingis on the floor.

Since the trade to Dallas, Gafford has scored at least 9 points in 29 of 41 games (70.7%), where he played at least 15 minutes, and 27 of 34 playing at least 20 minutes (79.4%). With the Mavs down 2-0 in this series, I expect a few more calls to go their way tonight. Go with Gafford at the sportsbook.

 

 

Celtics SF Jayson Tatum Over 9½ Rebounds

I’m rolling with Tatum to finish with at least 10 rebounds in Game 3. We keep getting this number, so I will continue to ride with it. Tatum has been just as brutal as Irving scoring in this series, but he has also contributed in other ways. We backed him in Game 1 at this same number, and he finished with 11 boards. In Game 2, he finished with 9, and we lost by the hook.

Tatum has stepped up his rebounding in the playoffs. He has finished with at least ten boards in six of his last eight meetings with the Mavs. Tatum is averaging 13.5 rebound chances per game in the Finals. He has double-digit rebounds in 8 of 10 games this postseason without Kristaps Porzingis and 13 of his last 22 games overall without him. The Celtics have listed Porzingis as questionable, but I expect him to sit.

Dallas allowed the third-most rebounds per game during the regular season. Despite adding Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington to the rotation, they still struggle to secure rebounds. Tatum has spent the most time of any Celtics defending Lively or Gafford in this series, leading to more rebounding chances.

Kawhi Leonard once said, “Board man gets paid.” Tatum is on his way to getting that massive payday, and his ability to produce even when he’s not scoring is a significant reason for this. Tatum has averaged double-digit rebounds in six consecutive playoff series, and I expect him to do it again in the NBA Finals when the series concludes. He’s an excellent NBA betting pick to include in your slip tonight!

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

 

Questions of the Day

Are the Celtics or Mavericks better ATS this season?


The Mavericks are the better team ATS this season, going 60-41. Boston has gone 49-36-5 ATS.

Who is projected to score the most points in the NBA Finals tonight?


Luka Doncic is projected to lead the NBA Finals in scoring when the Dallas Mavericks battle the Boston Celtics in Game 3.

 

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