The NBA Eastern Conference Finals features the top seeds, No. 1 Miami Heat & No. 2 Boston Celtics.
The Heat and Celtics are similar. They play with high intensity on the defensive end and rely on scoring from the wing. Expect a physical series that goes to the wire.
Five keys will decide who represents the East in the NBA Finals.
Defense in the Paint
Each team has elite paint defense. Boston is 4th in the NBA with 5.9 blocks per game and allows 42.5 points in the paint per game (3rd). Meanwhile, Miami leads the association in least points allowed in the paint (40.9 points).
Furthermore, both teams have imposing defensive bigs. Specifically, the Celtics’ Robert Williams and the Heat’s Bam Adebayo are two defensive stars. In the playoffs, Williams is 4th in defensive rating (98.1) and Adebayo is 10th (100.7).
Neither offense consistently scores in the paint. Miami ranks 27th in points in the paint per game while Boston is 17th. The opposing offense will struggle if an interior defense can dominate.
Depending on 3-pointers does not equal success in the NBA Playoffs. Interior defense will be a deciding factor in this series.
The Sixth Man of the Year Must be Consistent
Despite Tyler Herro’s inconsistency, the Heat defeated the 76ers in six. Against Boston, Miami needs the Sixth Man of the Year to be a consistent scoring threat.
Herro at 20.7 points per game is one of Miami’s best scorers. The third-year guard is averaging only 11.3 points in the last four games. In addition, he is shooting 38.3% from the field and is 3/16 (18.8%) on 3-pointers.
If Herro continues to struggle, the Heat will be in danger against the scrappy Celtics defense. Miami needs Herro at his best with Kyle Lowry battling a hamstring injury. Also, Herro can alleviate pressure from Jimmy Butler.
Tyler Herro in GM1
25 PTS (Team High)
7 AST (Game High)
4 3PT (Game High)
0 TO in 29 MINS34th game this season with 20+ PTS off benchpic.twitter.com/BN7I0RSQ1k
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) May 3, 2022
The Heat’s chance to win will skyrocket if Herro is playing well.
Who Controls the Rebounding Battle?
The battle on the glass determines who gets more possessions, leading to more shot attempts. In this series, rebounding will be key.
The Heat have sided with small lineups all season. Adebayo mans the center spot while P.J. Tucker starts at power forward. This causes their rebounding numbers to drop. They rank 22nd in rebounds per game. Boston is 12th in rebounds per game but lost the rebounding battle against the Bucks in the semifinals.
The two are close in total rebounding percentage. Miami ranks 8th in the category (51%) while Boston ranks 12th (50.4%). Adebayo leads Miami with 10.1 rebounds per game and Williams leads Boston with 9.6 rebounds per contest.
These teams are evenly matched on the boards. Whoever wins the rebounding battle will have a possession advantage, which is massive against elite defenses.
Three-point Shooting
Boston and Miami are deadly from 3-point land. The Celtics rank 8th in points from 3-pointers per game (40.1 points) and the Heat are 9th with 39.9 points per game.
In addition, the No. 1 seed Miami shoots a lethal 37.3% on 3-pointers, which ranks 2nd. Boston comes off a superb shooting series vs. the Bucks.
In Game 7, the Celtics hit 22 3-pointers while shooting 40% from deep. Grant Williams — who averages 7.8 points — stepped his game up with 27 points and seven 3-pointers in Game 7. Also, Williams logged 21 points and six 3-pointers in Game 2 vs. Milwaukee.
Grant Williams is the 3rd player to make 7 3-pt FG in a Game 7, joining Stephen Curry and Marcus Morris. pic.twitter.com/6NiNcxKtbL
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 15, 2022
Knocking down 3-pointers is vital for both squads as they face elite interior defenses. But getting good looks from deep will not be easy. Miami and Boston hold their opponents to 33.8% on 3-pointers, which leads the NBA Odds.
The efficient team from “3” will have a leg up.
Scoring From the Wing
The wing positions, shooting guard and small forward, are the most important in the NBA. Star wings are three-level scorers combined with impressive length. Many elite wings are also great defenders.
As mentioned, Herro will be a key for Miami. Butler has averaged more than 28 points in the postseason with two 40-point showings. The veteran wing has been one of the best perimeter defenders in the playoffs as he ranks 12th in defensive rating (102.3).
Boston’s Jayson Tatum is establishing himself as a superstar this postseason. He has scored 30 or more in three of the last four games and scored a whopping 46 points in Game 6 vs. the Bucks. Also, Tatum has played good defense with a 104.4 defensive rating in the postseason.
Jayson Tatum’s 46-point MASTERPIECE forces Game 7 Sunday! pic.twitter.com/8xsbvqGCya
— NBA (@NBA) May 14, 2022
Jaylen Brown is averaging over 22 points in the postseason while shooting 48.4% from the floor and 37.3% on 3-pointers. He is capable of dominating games, but that has not happened since coming off a hamstring injury. Could this be the series Brown takes over?
The premier scorers in this series all come from the wing. These matchups will be the biggest key. The victor of the series will win the wing matchup. The Eastern Conference Finals could be a classic.
Be sure to place your bets for the series at BetUS Sportsbook.
