Betting on the NBA is always a tricky, random, and not-so-predictive quest. More often than not, I repeat this mantra: “In sports and in handicapping, anything can and will happen.”
Besides the evident considerations such as injury reports, travel frequency, and a home-court advantage, aspiring sports bettors should consider NBA statistics in an attempt to successfully predict the outcome of a team or game.
When handicapping any NBA game, the idea is to focus on which team performs best at creating scoring opportunities and which is best at taking opportunities away.
Below, we’ll break down five statistics to track when wagering on the NBA that will help you cash. The following stats are focused on the big three betting markets: spread, moneyline, and totals.
1. Offensive Rebounding Percentage (ORB%)
Offensive rebounding percentage measures a team’s ability to get offensive rebounds. An offensive rebound is a result of a team regaining control over its own missed shot. This statistic gives a true indication of rebounding performance.
In other words, offensive rebounding creates an additional scoring opportunity for a team and denies its opponents a scoring opportunity.
Why is it important to keep track of it? The team that has the highest offensive rebounding percentage translates into the team with more chances to score.
It is crucial to keep track of both an individual player’s rebounding as well as the team’s total, because every time a player grabs an offensive rebound, he contributes to the team’s overall rebounding total, providing them with more chances to win the game.
The average ORB percentage for the NBA is 27.0. The higher the percentage, the better.
2. Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DRB%)
Defensive rebounding percentage measures a team’s ability to get defensive rebounds. When a team gets a defensive rebound, they not only create an opportunity to score at the other end of the court but deny the opposing team a second chance to score.
Similarly to offensive rebounding percentage, defensive rebounding gives a true indication of the rebounding ability of a player or team. In this case, the defense gains control of the ball after its opponent missed a shot. Furthermore, the team with a higher DRB% translates into a team with higher chances to make more shots and thus win the game.
The average Defensive Rebounding Percentage in the NBA is 73%.
3. Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
Effective Field Goal Percentage measures the effectiveness of 2- and 3-point shots. It can be calculated individually or on a team basis.
Why does it matter? Because eFG% shows how successful a team or player is at scoring from the field. Scoring is the most important factor to win a basketball game.
The best teams, or the more efficient ones, have a higher effective field goal percentage. The average effective shooting percentage in the NBA for the 2021-22 season was 53.9%.
As bettors, we must keep track of this metric to aim to get a more accurate prediction of a matchup’s outcome.
I highly encourage an aspiring sharp gambler to compare the eFG% of those teams that advanced to the NBA Finals versus the ones that did not. You will find out that there is no coincidence that those teams with higher eFG% were the ones with the best records.
4. Turnover Rate (TO)
The turnover percentage is a metric that measures a team’s or player’s possessions that result in a turnover. Turnovers are harmful because they translate into fewer shots. Namely, turnovers take away the scoring opportunities a player has and give them to the opponent team. Also, the added opportunities offer a higher chance to get fouled.
Why does it matter in NBA betting? The team that has the lower turnover percentage has the highest chance to score and win the game.
5. Pace Factor
The pace factor is an advanced NBA metric that calculates the total number of possessions a team uses in a 48-minute game, but why should possessions matter? They indicate the number of opportunities each team gets to score. So, having more chances to score will lead to higher point totals.
The pace factor is particularly useful when betting on totals because it can be used as an indicator of whether the game will go over or under the number set by the books.
Knowing the pace of a team can help you to cross-check information and ask questions that are crucial to predicting a game’s outcome. For instance, will it be a slow- or fast-paced game? Is it a slow-paced team versus a high-paced team? Two slow-paced teams or two fast-paced teams? You can bet accordingly on the over or under.
