The NBA Draft Lottery is set for Tuesday night, which means plenty of anxious moments for fans, coaches and general managers of the teams with the best odds to get the No. 1 selection. Here is the NBA betting preview of the lottery.
Due to a change in the lottery system that took place starting with the 2019 NBA Draft, there are three teams each with 14 percent odds to get the first pick. Under the former system, the team with the worst record had a 25 percent chance of earning the top pick. The next two teams had odds of 19.9 and 15.6 percent.
Houston, Orlando and Detroit are the teams with a 14 percent chance to get the top selection, followed by Oklahoma City at 12.5 percent and Indiana at 10.5 percent.
It seems almost certain that a college freshman will be the first overall pick once again. Will Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Duke’s Paolo Banchero or Auburn’s Jabari Smith be the first player off the board in next month’s draft.
Here’s a look at the teams with the best odds to receive the No. 1 overall pick, although it should be noted that when looking at the NBA predictions, only one of the last six NBA Rookies of the Year were taken with the first selection in the draft. That one honoree was Ben Simmons, who had the equivalent of a redshirt year due to injury.
10. Washington Wizards
- Odds to receive first pick: (+3300)
- 2021-22 record: 35-47
- Recent top-10 picks: Deni Avdija, No. 9 overall in 2020 and Rui Hachimura, No. 9 overall in 2019.
Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis could become a top inside-outside tandem if they stay in Washington. Avdija and Hachimura have become solid players but are hardly franchise building blocks.
Washington ranked 21st in the NBA in offensive rating, 25th in defensive rating and 26th in offensive rebounding percentage, so a big man who provided a boost defensively would be the best option.
9. San Antonio Spurs
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+2000)
- 2021-22 record: 34-48
- Recent top-10 picks: Haven’t selected in the top 10 since taking Tim Duncan first overall in 1997.
Few teams have consistently drafted better at the end of the first round in recent years than San Antonio, who landed Dejounte Murray, Keldon Johnson and Derrick White. One can only imagine what the Spurs would come up with a top-10 selection.
8. Los Angeles Lakers
NOTE: If the pick lands in the top 10, it will be sent to New Orleans as a result of the Anthony Davis trade. If it is No. 11 or lower, Memphis will receive the Lakers’ pick.
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+1400)
- 2021-22 record: 33-49
- Recent top-10 picks: Memphis – Took Ja Morant No. 2 overall in 2019 and Jaren Jackson No. 4 in 2018. New Orleans – Zion Williamson was the No. 1 pick in 2019 and Buddy Hield was taken sixth in 2016 (Hield is now with Indiana.
Memphis had a valiant run in the playoffs so getting this pick would provide even more talent for the team to build around. Morant is 22 years old, Desmond Bane is 23, Jaren Jackson 22 and De’Anthony Melton is 23, so the future is bright for the Grizzlies. A pick in the teens would be a nice bonus for a team built for future success.
The biggest question with New Orleans is the future of Williamson, who just can’t stay healthy. Williamson, Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum could be one heck of a Big Three in the Big Easy. Adding a top-10 player to this trio could make this a scary team, assuming Williamson can be there on a nightly basis.
7. Sacramento Kings
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+1200)
- 2021-22 record: 30-52
- Recent top-10 picks: Davion Mitchell, No. 9 pick in 2021; Marvin Bagley, No. 2 pick in 2018 (now with Detroit); De’Aaron Fox, No. 5 pick in 2017.
Anybody who knows what the Kings are doing is a step ahead of most people. Sacramento picked Marvin Bagley ahead of Luka Doncic in the 2018 draft. Bagley never played more than 62 games in a season and in February he was dealt to Detroit.
Another trade shipped point guard Tyrese Haliburton to Indiana. As was the case with Bagley, Haliburton’s numbers improved after he escaped Sacramento. Let’s see what the Kings do with what could be a prime pick in a pretty solid draft.
6. Portland Trail Blazers
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+900)
- 2021-22 record: 27-55
- Recent top-10 picks: C.J. McCollum, No. 10 pick in 2013 (now with New Orleans); Damian Lillard, No. 6 pick in 2012.
This is new territory for Portland, which hasn’t picked in the top 10 for a while. Lillard, who will represent Portland at the draft lottery, needs some help, especially after McCollum was traded to New Orleans in February. Josh Hart was a part of that trade and he averaged 19.9 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists with Portland. Adding another talented piece to the roster would improve Portland’s NBA playoff odds moving forward.
5. Indiana Pacers
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+800)
- 2021-22 record: 25-57
- Recent top-10 picks: Haven’t picked in the top 10 since taking Paul George 10th overall in 2010.
Another team not used to having selections in the top 10 or, in this case, possibly in the top five. Indiana got a boost in the trade that sent Haliburton and Buddy Hield from Sacramento to Indiana. Malcolm Brogdon was limited to just 36 games, but he continues to improve with each passing season.
Landing a big man would be the wisest course of action since Domantas Sabonis headed to Sacramento in the aforementioned trade.
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+650)
- 2021-22 record: 24-58
- Recent top-10 picks: Josh Giddey, No. 6 pick in 2021.
Giddey’s shooting numbers were a bit up and down, but he contributed in so many other ways as a rookie. He is one of a host of players 23 or younger on the Thunder. That list starts with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Another player to help in the post would be the perfect addition so if Oklahoma City moves into the top three and can land Holmgren, Banchero or Smith, watch out for this team moving forward.
3. (Tie) Detroit Pistons
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+550)
- 2021-22 record: 23-59
- Recent top-10 picks: Cade Cunningham, No. 1 pick in 2021; Killian Hayes, No. 7 pick in 2020.
It can be debated whether Cunningham was the best choice with the first pick in 2021, ahead of Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley. However, Cunningham came on strong in the second half of the season.
The last two times a team had back-to-back No. 1 overall picks didn’t go so well. Neither Markelle Fultz nor Ben Simmons are still with Philadelphia. Andrew Wiggins was traded by Cleveland to Minnesota while Anthony Bennett was one of the least productive No. 1 overall selections in quite some time.
Another key piece will be added in Detroit’s rebuilding process.
Two weeks away from the NBA draft lottery, there’s plenty of draft and free agency fodder to get us off and running in this week’s edition of #Pistons Mailbag.@Keith_Langlois‘ article 🗞: https://t.co/4G28mv0cCd pic.twitter.com/mzGHuXXdUA
— Detroit Pistons (@DetroitPistons) May 5, 2022
2. (Tie) Orlando Magic
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+550)
- 2021-22 record: 22-60
- Recent top-10 picks: Jalen Suggs, No. 5 pick in 2021; Franz Wagner, No. 8 pick in 2021; Mo Bamba, No. 6 pick in 2018; Jonathan Isaac, No. 6 pick in 2017.
Orlando seems to be in better shape than the other two franchises with the best chance to land the top pick, thanks to their own recent draft picks as well as the trade that brought Wendell Carter to Orlando and also the top-10 pick in last year’s draft used to acquire Franz Wagner.
Suggs will need to improve his shooting in his second NBA season. He is viewed as the part of the backcourt of the future along with Cole Anthony. There will be some decisions to be made. Carter and Bamba are among the post options. Will Orlando opt for a shooter like Purdue star Jaden Ivey or go after one of the three freshmen frontcourt players. It will depend on what pick Orlando gets because if Holmgren or Banchero are on the board, the Orlando Magic will be more than happy to take either one of them.
1. (Tie) Houston Rockets
- Odds to receive the first pick: (+550)
- 2021-22 record: 20-62
- Recent top-10 picks: Jalen Green, No. 2 pick in 2021
Green, Kenyon Martin and Alperen Sengun figure to be in Houston for the long haul. After that? There have been some rumblings that double-double machine Christian Wood could be on the trading block. Kevin Porter Jr. is a rather combustible player who is very productive but does carry some baggage with him.
If there is a team that needs the top pick, this is probably the one. A post player to pair with Green would be a nice start to what seems to be a long rebuilding project in Houston Rockets.
