The NBA season is off and running, and what an exciting first month we have had. There were some superstars on the move this year and we’ve now had a chance to see most of them get acquainted with their new squads. Damian Lillard, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Bradley Beal, and James Harden just to name a few. Let’s not forget about the rookie stars, Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren.
Some teams are off to slow starts and some surprising ones, but as always, there are plenty of player props to select from. We have a small five-game slate of games on Monday to select our NBA prop bets today to kick off our week!
There are some exciting matchups, including a Western Conference showdown between Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets versus Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers. We’ll also see LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers battle Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers tonight. There are plenty of options for Monday night, so let’s get to it.
You may be familiar with my NFL picks, and I handicap the NBA player prop market similarly. The research I’ve done will always back up the reasoning behind my NBA prop bets. Now that the stage is set, let’s dive into the best NBA player prop bets for Monday. Best of luck if you tail!
Malcolm Brogdon Over 18.5 Points
There are some high totals for Monday’s five-game slate, and none are higher than the Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers matchup. The current total is 240 points, so we shouldn’t expect any shortage from either of these sides. The Malcolm Brogdon revenge tour continues tonight, well, sort of. Last night, he faced the team that drafted him, the Milwaukee Bucks, and tonight, he will go up against the Pacers, who he played with for three seasons prior to last year.
malcolm is immaculate pic.twitter.com/3Hm50U2XGs
— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) November 26, 2023
Brogdon hasn’t been shy about getting shots up with Portland. He is the primary ball handler and he is averaging over 17 field goal attempts per game. He has gone over this line in nine of ten games this season he played the entirety of. Last season, as a member of the Celtics, Brogdon scored 18 and 24 points against Indiana. The Pacers are allowing the fifth-most points per game to point guards so far, and I expect Brogdon not to be shy versus his former squad. The Pacers are last in scoring defense, allowing 125.5 points per game. I also like Brogdon to go over 7.5 assists in this matchup.
Myles Turner Over 16.5 Points
Staying with the Pacers and Trail Blazers matchup, I’m rolling with the Pacers’ big man, Myles Turner. Portland is allowing the fifth-most points per game to opposing centers. Turner is off to a great start this season, averaging over 17 points per game. Turner gets into foul trouble sometimes, which has kept him under this line a couple of times, but he’s never had a game with more than 3 fouls when he is facing Deandre Ayton. He has hit the over on this line in 60% of the games. I expect Turner to be very active tonight in this game, in which both teams will be getting easy buckets in transition.
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Jaden Ivey Over 15.5 Points
I’m staying in one of the less high-profile matchups on Monday with my final NBA player prop of the day. I have already faded the Washington Wizards a ton early on this season, and I’m not stopping now. The Wizards are just behind the Pacers as the worst-scoring defense in the league, allowing the second most points per game (125.1). This game also features a high total, but what’s important is the point spread. The Detroit Pistons are short 3-point favorites on our NBA odds, so the potential for a blowout is low. These teams are struggling to win games right now, but I give the edge to the younger, more athletic Pistons.
Speaking of athletic, Jaden Ivey stands out for Detroit. The start of his season has been interesting from a minutes standpoint, but over the last four games, he has averaged over 30 minutes per game. He has gone over this line in back-to-back games, and I expect that to be three of three after tonight. Washington is allowing the fifth-most points per game to opposing guards. Ivey and Cade Cunningham will be the key catalyst behind the Pistons putting an end to their 13-game losing streak.
Questions Of The Day
How can I identify high-value props for Monday's NBA games?
You can identify high-value NBA props by examining the matchups individually and the overall game. For example, if a game projects to be high-scoring and the shooting guard has an advantage over poor three-point defense, then you can back the shooting guard to go over his totals.
What are some matchup-specific factors to consider when betting on props for Monday´s NBA games?
Some matchup-specific factors to consider when betting on NBA props are how a team performs versus individual positions. For example, a team may allow the most rebounds per game to opposing Centers, but they give up the least points to opposing Small Forwards.