Best NBA Player Props Today: Khris Middleton Over 11.5 Points Among Top Picks Dec 10

Here are three prop bet options for you to consider on what should be a fun night on the hardwood.

3 Best NBA Player Props to Bet Today

1. Khris Middleton Over 11.5 Points (+100)

The home team won all four games between these teams last season, in case any of you are looking for a game market NBA bet. We’re laser-focused on Middleton, who is set to make his third appearance of the season after missing the first 21.

Uh oh.

Khris Middleton is back. pic.twitter.com/WZDWhEMSa0

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) December 6, 2024

There’s something about that third game back from injury that seems to work for a lot of guys. The first game back is about getting into the flow, and the second is about pushing it a bit more. Then, with the conditioning back to where it was, things often click in game No. 3. There doesn’t seem to be anything empirical out there on this, but it’s a trend we’ve seen in a few of these situations.

Middleton had 11 points in each of his first two games, shooting just 5-for-18 as he shakes off the rust. The Magic are a dynamic defensive squad, but there are enough weapons with Milwaukee that Middleton will get lost from time to time. He loves those mid-range opportunities and that’s one area in which Orlando can be a bit soft – only two teams in the East have allowed more mid-range baskets this season.

The three-time All-Star averaged 14.0 points per game last season vs the Magic. We like him to find a little groove in this one.

Bet on Khris Middleton Over 11.5 Points (+100)

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2. Dereck Lively Under 8.5 Points (-130)

For my second NBA player prop tonight, I’m going with Dereck Lively. The Mavericks have won 11 of their last 12, including one win over the Thunder in Oklahoma City. They’ll try to duplicate that feat with another visit to the West leaders tonight.

Lively has produced nine points in nine of his 19 games so far, so just under 50% of the time. One of those unders was a six-point effort at Oklahoma City on Nov. 17. The second-year big man had four points in the last regular-season matchup with the Thunder in 2023-24 before averaging 7.7 points per game in their playoff series.

If we just use all of those numbers it’s a pretty safe bet to take the under here. If you need a little more nudging, remember that OKC gives up the fewest points in the paint (41.7) in the NBA, a number that hasn’t suffered all that much with Chet Holmgren out. Lively does most of his damage inside.

Additionally, Daniel Gafford continues to get most of the points at the center position for Dallas. He’s hit double digits in 16 straight despite averaging just over 22 minutes per game. So if the Mavericks need some scoring inside they’ll turn to the backup.

Bet on Dereck Lively Under 8.5 Points (-130)

3. Daniel Gafford Over 6.5 Rebounds (-121)

Sticking with Gafford, we see an opportunity to prey on another aspect of the Thunder’s style. With their high volume of shots and their so-so percentages, they offer up loads of rebounding chances for opponents (most in the league at 48.1 per game).

Daniel Gafford Stats this season

Only 5 players have 290+ Points, 150+ rebounds, 30+ blocks this season (AD, Wemby, Mobley, Turner, GAFF) and Gaff did it in 200+ less minutes than most of the others.

He has as many double-digit scoring games as Jokic, Tied for 6th Most among… pic.twitter.com/tX5gwY1am8

— Nick Angstadt (@NickVanExit) December 8, 2024

Gafford had 12 boards in the first meeting, 15 in the last regular-season encounter in 2023-24, and 7.5 in the playoff series. He’ll get his share in this one and should start getting more attention league-wide for how impressive he’s been this season. Grab this NBA betting line before it shifts.

Bet on Daniel Gafford Over 6.5 Rebounds (-121)

Question Of The Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.