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NBA Finals Game 4 Top Player Prop Bets: Buy-Low on Luka & Gafford

The NBA playoffs have been a rollercoaster, and I’ve been right there with you, delivering a remarkable 45– 32 record on NBA player prop bets since the start of the playoffs.

In Game 3, the Boston Celtics showcased their prowess and defeated the Dallas Mavericks. Boston is in a favorable position, just one win away from completing the sweep and raising their 18th banner. The victory was particularly impressive due to the stellar performance of Boston’s Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, who stepped up in the second half to secure the win.

NBA Finals Game 4 Top Player Prop Bets: Buy-Low on Luka & Gafford
Luka Doncic #77 and Kyrie Irving #11 of the Dallas Mavericks/Ron Jenkins/Getty Images/AFP

Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will look to avoid the sweep and extend the series. You may be new to the NBA, so I’ll remind you that no team in Finals history has ever come back down 0-3. Teams are 155-0 after taking a 3-0 lead in NBA playoff history and 14-0 in the Finals.


The NBA Finals continue on Friday with Game 4, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC. The Mavericks are desperate to avoid the sweep. We’re coming off of another profitable season, so let’s keep things rolling with my best player props for the NBA Finals.


Best 2 Player Props for Celtics vs Mavericks Game 4

1. Mavericks PG Luka Doncic Over 3½ Made Threes

I expect Dallas to make more adjustments and throw the kitchen sink with their backs against the wall. BetUS sportsbook has this game priced as a pick’em. I expect Luka to be motivated after an embarrassing personal performance in Game 3.

Luka Doncic played well in Game 1, finished with 30 points, and shot 4 of 12 from beyond the arc in 38 minutes. Luka and Kyrie sat on the bench with 5 minutes and 17 seconds left in the fourth when Jason Kidd conceded and pulled his starters. In Game 2, Luka shot 4 of 9 from deep and scored 32 points in 42 minutes. Despite the loss, Doncic became the youngest player to finish with a 30-point triple-double in finals history.


I’m expecting the 25-year-old from Slovenia to go out swinging. In Game 3, Luka struggled in multiple facets. After a hot start, he finished with 27 points and shot just 1 for 7 from downtown. Luka struggled on the defensive end, and that’s been highlighted throughout all the talk shows. Doncic eventually fouled out with 4:12 left in the fourth quarter. Dallas was in the middle of a 20-2 run before the foul that sent him to the bench for the remainder of the game.

As expected, he was upset with the officials saying this in the postgame interview. “I mean, I don’t know. We couldn’t play physical, so I don’t know. I don’t want to say nothing but six fouls in the NBA Finals…come on man, better than that.

Get out the tin foil hats! I believe the NBA wants at least one more game before the long offseason. Simply put, a sweep is terrible for business. I expect the referees to favor the Mavericks a bit more with their calls, or lack thereof, in Game 4 to try to get this series back to Boston for one more game.

I’ve highlighted Boston’s weakness in defending three-pointers above the break. This is where Luka is lethal. Boston allowed the third-most threes per game above the break (10.2); only the Lakers and Jazz allowed more from this zone. Boston’s defense is susceptible to shots at the top of the key because they clamp down on the corners. Six of the Mavs’ nine threes made as a team in Game 3 came from above the break.

Doncic has made at least four threes in 5 of his last 6 games. Luka has accomplished this in 6 of his previous 11 matchups with Boston. Since February, including the playoffs, he has splashed at least four triples in 34 of 50 games (68%) and 11 of his last 17 games at home, playing at least 35 minutes (64%). I trust a little Luka magic to happen one more time.



2. Mavericks C Daniel Gafford Over 6½ Points

I’m buying low on Daniel Gafford heading into Game 4. Many bettors are probably frustrated after watching him play only 16 minutes in Game 3 and finish with 6 points, but hear me out. We know role players always perform better at home. Kristaps Porzingis will likely be unavailable again in Game 4. The paint was wide open for Dallas in Game 3 without the unicorn on the floor.

Derrick Lively played 30 minutes off the bench in Game 3, but 12 of those minutes came in the fourth quarter. Dallas went on a ridiculous 22-2 run in the fourth to cut the lead to just 1 point with 3:37 left to play. Jason Kidd was not going to switch up that unit that had built all the momentum to get Dallas back in the game. I expect Gafford to be back in the 20-minute range in Game 4.

The athletic center will be able to impact this game with Porzingis out again. Gafford scored 8 points in 14 minutes in Game 1 and 13 points in 23 minutes in Game 2. I also expect the rookie Lively to be productive again off the bench, but his lines have increased above my liking, and this number on Gafford is more palatable.

Boston was vulnerable in the paint against the Cavaliers and Pacers without Porzingis. They allowed 50 points per game in the paint in those two series after allowing the ninth fewest points in the paint per game during the regular season. They allowed 50 points in the paint in Game 3. Gafford has averaged 7.4 points per game in the paint during the playoffs and 8 points in the paint per game in the Finals.


Gafford has scored at least 7 points in 34 of 42 games (80%), where he played at least 15 minutes, and 30 of 34 playing at least 20 minutes (88%). I would play this up to 7½ as he’s also scored at least 8 points in 34 of 42 games playing at least 15 minutes (80%) and 30 of 40 games where he played at least 20 minutes (75%). I expect Dallas to try to get physical with Boston, and that will start in the paint with Gafford as the spearhead.



Questions Of The Day

What was the Celtics record ATS on the road?

The Celtics have gone 23-22-3 ATS in away games.

What was the Mavericks record ATS at home?

The Mavericks have gone 25-25 ATS in home games.


Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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