Bucks Favored over Heat
The Miami Heat are sitting pretty at the top of the NBA standings in the Eastern Conference, they go into their upcoming date with the defending champions the Milwaukee Bucks as the distinct underdogs on the NBA oddsboard at BetUS sportsbook. Do the Heat deserve more respect or does the market have it right?
Heat Riding Four-Game Winning Streak
The Miami Heat continue to challenge the East for the top spot as they improve to a 41-21 mark. They have a two-game edge over their nearest threat the Chicago Bulls and a four-length advantage over the defending NBA champions the Milwaukee Bucks.
The Heat have a cache in the betting online market behind a 35-36-1 record against the spread (ATS). This run of form is underscored by a 4.8 winning margin on average and a +2.1 differential versus the spread. On the road, the Heat are 20-14 and 20-13-1 ATS with a 3.6 winning margin on average and a +3.2 differential versus the spread. While as away underdogs they are 9-5-0 ATS with a 1.9 winning margin on average and a +7.5 differential versus the spread.
By the stats, it’s clear the Heat are exceeding expectations more often than not. In the last four games, the Heat beat the Charlotte Hornets 111-107, New York Knicks 115-100, San Antonio Spurs 133-129, and Chicago Bulls 112-99 to go 2-2-0 ATS. Their last outing included covering as the 4½ -point road favorites over the Bulls to improve to a 9-1 record in their last ten games and a 6-4-0 ATS record.
Bam was a monster on both ends of the floor vs Chicago. Nothing new. pic.twitter.com/V3Y7VDG6ul
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) March 1, 2022
Bucks Bounce Back
The Milwaukee Bucks bounced back into the win column on Monday night, beating the Charlotte Hornets 130-106 to come through as the whopping 10 ½-point favorites for NBA picks against the spread. The win snapped a two-game losing streak that featured losses to the surging Philadelphia 76ers (123-120) and the Brooklyn Nets (126-123). The fact that both those losses came within three points is encouraging, underlying just how easily those games could have gone the other way.
The Bucks are fourth overall in the Eastern Conference standings with a 37-25 record. Form in the last 10 games is a solid 6-4 and home form is a modest 16-13 overall.
As far as the betting stats go, the Bucks have struggled to live up to the market’s expectations. They’re merely 27-35-0 ATS with a 3.6 winning margin and a -1.9 differential versus the spread. At home, the Bucks are a subpar 12-21-0 ATS despite a 4.4 winning margin on average. While as the home favorite, they’re 10-19-0 despite a 5.3 winning margin on average – which is the second-worst record in the league.
Clearly, the Bucks are playing well otherwise they wouldn’t rank so high in the Eastern Conference standings. But what the aforementioned stats suggest is that the market is guilty of overvaluing the Bucks repeatedly on the NBA odds board. That’s something to consider before placing your wagers on this game.
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Head-to-Head
The Miami Heat trail the Milwaukee Bucks 3-7 in their last 10 games. This record includes a 4-6-0 ATS mark and a 5-5 record in over and under betting. That said, the Heat and the Bucks split their last two meetings in December. The Bucks beat the Heat 124-102 to come through as the 6½-point home chalk on December 4, 2021. The Heat rebounded with a 113-104 win on December 8, 2021 to come through as the 6½-point underdogs at home four days later.
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Game Information
- Game: Miami Heat (41-21) at Milwaukee Bucks (37-25)
- Location: Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks
- Day/Time: Wednesday, March 2, 2022, 8:05 p.m. ET
- Television: ESPN
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Betting Lines
Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction
Review the odds for the current game and make a case for which way to bet the game. It can be anything — side, total, team total, or a single-game parlay.
The Miami Heat aren’t getting the respect they deserve at the sportsbook exchange and that has translated to better than expected results in betting markets. The case for the Milwaukee Bucks is the opposite as they’re getting too much respect. This is a function of their championship credentials as well as popularity among bettors, although the outcome provides for less than convincing stats that might be considered a red flag.
Given how well both teams are playing this season, it’s not a stretch to consider this matchup as a potential playoff preview. Thus, the win is a bit of a tossup in this game. The Heat could win but the Bucks should win, or so say the bookies. The value though has to be with the Heat who are perpetually underestimated. They come into this game in good form and riding a four-game winning streak. So, as the 4 ½ point road underdogs, they cut an intriguing figure for NBA picks.