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Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds and Picks Sunday, April 21

It’s finally put up or shut up time for the Boston Celtics. The team with the best record in the NBA has had the best NBA Finals odds for quite a while, and now the postseason finally begins, giving the Celtics a chance to live up to expectations. Top-seeded Boston will begin its playoff journey with a seven-game first-round series with the eighth-seeded Miami, starting with Sunday’s Game 1.

This series is tough, even if it is a 1 vs 8 matchup. We’ll look and give you the best series and NBA prop bets today.

Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds and Picks Sunday, April 21
Heat vs Celtics Prediction, Odds and Picks Sunday, April 21

The Heat had to survive an elimination game in the Play-In Tournament Friday night, routing the Chicago Bulls despite playing without star forward Jimmy Butler, who is not expected to play in this series. Miami finished in eighth place in the East but lost to the Philadelphia 76ers in its first Play-In Tournament game on Wednesday, forcing Friday’s showdown.

Boston is the odds-on favorite in this series and to win the title. It must take care of business on the court against a Heat team that it is very familiar with. The teams have squared off in the Eastern Conference finals in three of the last four postseasons, including last season’s seven-game win by the Heat.


Heat vs Celtics Game Information

  • Game: Heat (46-36) vs Celtics (64-18)
  • Start Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • Day Game: Sunday, April 21
  • Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
  • Heat vs Celtics Live Stream:NBA Game Pass


The Celtics dominated the season series in 2023-24, winning all three matchups. One game was a 33-point blowout, while the other two had margins of six and eight points.

NBA odds for Game 1 are heavily in favor of the Celtics, with Boston giving 14 points to the visiting Heat. You can get the favorites at -1000 on a moneyline wager, or take Miami at +650. The over/under for Game 1 is set at 209 points.

These kinds of odds are going to be the same throughout the series. The Las Vegas odds have Boston as -8000 favorites to advance to the second round, while Miami is listed at +2200.

Heat vs Celtics Head-to-Head



Heat vs Celtics Odds and Spreads




  • The total has gone over in 22 of Boston’s 41 home games this season.
  • Miami is 24-14 ATS on the road in 2023-24.
  • The Celtics are 23-17-1 ATS when playing at home this season.
  • The Heat are 17-18 as an underdog this season.
  • The over is 4-1 in Boston’s last five contests.


Heat vs Celtics Over/Under Pick: Over 209 (-110)

The Celtics and Heat are two of the top five teams in the NBA in scoring defense, with Boston ranking fourth (108.4 points per game) and Miami fifth (109.2). Despite that, both teams will look to be aggressive with their offenses in the opener. The Celtics have been sitting and waiting to get their postseason started, and they’ll be looking to make a statement at home in Game 1.

The Heat have a solid defense, but they won’t be able to shut down Boston. All three of these teams’ matchups went over this total in the regular season, and we fully expect that to be the case in this one as well. Our best NBA betting advice on this game is to take the over.



Heat vs Celtics ATS Pick: Heat +14 (-110)

We fully expect Boston to make this a short series, and it will come out on top in Game 1 as well. The Celtics have too many offensive weapons, starting with the duo of Jayson Tatum (26.9 points, 8.1 rebounds) and Jaylen Brown (23.0 points, 5.5 rebounds). Kristaps Porzingis will also give the undersized Heat trouble as he looks to make his first playoff impression with the Celtics.

Despite all that, we like Miami to at least keep this within 14 points by the final buzzer. The Heat showed something in beating the Bulls without Butler, and Miami has been on the big stage before, so it won’t be intimidated going against the top seed. The Heat won’t be one of the NBA picks to win it all this season, but they won’t go down without a good fight.



Heat vs Celtics Prop Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 40½ Pts+Reb+Ast (+122)

There are so many good options for NBA playoffs prop bets, but one of our favorites for this game involves the overall play of the Celtics’ superstar Tatum. The All-Star forward always plays well in the postseason, and he, like many of the Boston players, has been waiting for a chance to redeem himself since last season’s Eastern Conference finals loss to the Heat.

We think much of Tatum’s total for this one will come from his scoring, but he’ll also be active on the boards and in finding his teammates. Look for an inspired performance from Tatum, making this one of the stronger NBA prop bets today.



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Heat vs Celtics Score Prediction

Celtics 120, Heat 110



Questions of the Day

Who won the season series between the Heat and Celtics this season?

Boston swept the three-game season series, including an eight-point win at home in October.

Who won the series when these two teams last played in the postseason?

The Heat came out on top in seven games when these two teams played in the Eastern Conference finals last season.

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