Heat vs Hawks Prediction, Picks, and 2025 NBA Play-In Odds, April 18: Herro Worship Time (-141)
- Tyler Herro over 2.5 3-pointers is the top prop bet for Heat vs Hawks
- Bet the Heat vs Hawks to go over 219 points
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Everyone talks about “Playoff Jimmy” but what about “Playoff Heat?” Miami reminded everyone just how dangerous it still is by dismantling the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday. Those who bet on the NBA will know better than to underestimate Miami again. We made that mistake, but we’re all in with it as it takes on the Atlanta Hawks, a team it matches up well against.
As such, Miami, as a slight underdog in the battle for the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, is worth betting on this Friday.
The Play-In Heat are just different.
After beating the Bulls, they’ll move on to face the Hawks for a shot at the playoffs.
And take a look at how past Play-In Heat teams have been:
🔥 2023: Advanced to playoffs as 8-seed. Made Finals.
🔥 2024: Advanced to playoffs as 8-seed… pic.twitter.com/rUtPoKqZ05
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) April 17, 2025
Heat vs Hawks NBA Play-In Prediction
Yes, Miami finished with its worst record in a decade, but it proved it still has plenty left in the tank. Atlanta did beat the Heat in the Play-In two years ago and won both home games. But with money on the line, we’re betting on the Heat to pull this off. They are better coached and have more palatable NBA Play-In odds.
Heat 113, Hawks 109
Heat vs Hawks Best NBA Player Props Today
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Hawks G Trae Young Under 27.5 Points (-114)
Trae Young has been hot-and-cold when facing teams like Miami. The Heat still have one of the NBA’s top defenses (ninth in defensive rating) and have held Young to 17 points or fewer in three of their last four meetings. In the 2022 playoffs, they held him under 26 points in all five games. We’re against his points’ NBA prop betting line here.
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Heat G Tyler Herro Over 2.5 3-Pointers (-141)
On the flip side, we expect Tyler Herro to stay hot. Maybe he won’t drop 38 points as he did against Chicago, but he should still go over his points props (25.5) and hit at least three 3-pointers. Per NBA betting tips, Herro averages 3.3 3s per game and the Hawks give up the third-most threes (14.5) at home.
Miami Heat’s BIG 3 were UNSTOPPABLE tonight in a blowout win over the Bulls:
Herro: Wiggins: Bam:
38 PTS 20 PTS 15 PTS
5 REB 9 REB 12 REB
4 AST 2 AST 3 ASTThis is Heat basketball. pic.twitter.com/EuW3Yj4E0C
— 𝙃𝙚𝙖𝙩𝘾𝙪𝙡𝙩𝙪𝙧𝙚 (@WadexFlash) April 17, 2025
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Heat C Bam Adebayo Over 33.5 Pts+Rebs+Asts (-115)
Bam Adebayo should also have a big game. He’s quietly done it all for Miami and should flourish against the defensively challenged and fast-paced Hawks. Atlanta ranks in the bottom third of the league in allowing opponents’ defensive rebounds, assists and points. Bet on Adebayo to go over his combo props per this NBA prop pick.
Bet These Heat vs Hawks Player Prop Picks Here
Heat vs Hawks Total Pick
The total is too low here. Atlanta plays one of the fastest paces in the league and has porous defense, which is why 65% of its home games have gone over the total (26-14), the most in the league. Miami will look to grind this game out slowly. Still, five of its last six games have gone over the total, which roughly averaged to 217.5. Bet the over.
Heat vs Hawks ATS Pick
Miami is the NBA pick today against the spread (ATS). It has covered in five of its last six road games and is a good matchup against Atlanta. The Heat can score and play better defense. On top of that, Atlanta has not fared well as a favorite being just 7-13 ATS as one at home. Back Miami.
Heat vs Hawks ML Pick
With a spread this tight, we might as well bet Miami to win this NBA game. The Heat have won the last two elimination Play-In games and actually have a positive net rating (+0.4) for the season despite being eight games under .500. We’re also not betting against Erik Spoelstra in this spot. Miami wins.
Heat vs Hawks How to Watch
- Game: Miami Heat (38-45) vs Atlanta Hawks (40-43)
- Date/Time: Friday, Apr. 18, 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
- Heat vs Hawks on Live Stream: NBA League Pass
Check here for Heat vs Hawks stats.
Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.
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Question of the Day
What is Miami’s road record as an underdog this season ?
Miami is 8-15 as a road underdog in the 2024-25 NBA season.
