Mavericks Await Lakers Without Doncic

Dallas won’t play again until Sunday, giving Doncic a chance to get some extended rest. Even without their star, the sportsbook has the Mavericks as two-point favorites at home.

Somewhat surprisingly, Doncic’s absence hasn’t stopped Dallas from covering in their last two matchups. The Doncic-less Mavericks won and covered against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets, throttling their opponents by double-digit margins.

Both wins were all-around team efforts, with solid contributions coming from Kristaps Porzingis, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre Jr. and others off the bench. Dallas shot the ball at a clip of 51.8 percent against the Hornets and relied on their defense against the Thunder, holding them to only 84 points.

The Mavs will need exceptional effort on both sides of the floor when LeBron James and Co. come to town Wednesday.

Lakers 3-1 in Last Four

The Los Angeles Lakers that won a championship two years ago were predicated on great defense and a methodical offensive approach that wore down opponents. This season’s Lakers are built differently. Inconsistent to start the season, the “Lake-show” is finally above .500 again. LeBron James is the biggest difference in the team’s most recent success, eclipsing 30 points in six of the Lakers’ past nine games.

That’s nothing shocking, but initially it looked like the new-look-Lakers weren’t built to win. Russell Westbrook led the NBA in turnovers at the start of the season. He’s still second overall with 4.6 turnovers per game, and now there are whispers of Westbrook being traded. The Lakers also run the floor much faster than previous years, ranking second overall with 101.6 possessions per game.

In general, their defense has been below-average. According to TeamRankings.com, the Lakers are bottom-third in the NBA in a number of defensive categories. They allow 111.5 ppg (26th), 48.7 points in the paint per game (29th), and 55.3 rebounds per game (26th) to their opponents. Los Angeles’ defensive efficiency rating has improved over the last few weeks, rising to 11th overall.

Advantageous Line Favors Lakers

The Lakers are short underdogs (+2) and it’s conceivable that the line will move in their favor. We’ve seen as much from NBA spreads when a team is without a key player. Although the Mavericks are at home and they’ve accounted for some wins without Doncic, the Lakers will have an obvious edge when James and Anthony Davis are on the floor. James is listed as probable while AD is questionable, but both are expected to play.

One area where the Lakers may have a real advantage is their ability to prevent three-point buckets. With Tim Hardaway Jr., Porzingis, Rozier, Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith, Dallas is loaded with players that like to shoot from beyond the arc. The Mavericks attempt 37.9 three-pointers per game to rank sixth in the NBA. Unfortunately for Dallas, the Lakers are one of the better defenses against perimeter shooting.

Los Angeles is ranked ninth in opponent three-point percentage, allowing teams to make only 34 percent from deep. Without Doncic in their lineup, who’s responsible for over 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game, Dallas will have to readily compensate on offense. The Lakers’ defense hasn’t been consistent but they should have a considerable advantage tonight.

I would take the Lakers up to four-point favorites. At this point, bettors can only assume that James and Davis will both play, but it’s important to keep abreast of any lineup changes. Scores and odds can change drastically when big stars are late-scratches, like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid were earlier this week.

This is the start of a three-game road trip for Los Angeles. The Lakers have the rest advantage, posting an easy victory against Orlando on Sunday, Dallas played Monday night against the Hornets.

Pick: Lakers +2