The Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors kick off their four-game season series on Wednesday in what could be one of the games of the year.
Luka Doncic made an instant impact in his return to the lineup when the Mavericks beat the Denver Nuggets and he’ll be put to the test against the best defense in the NBA.
NBA betting odds have the Warriors at -5½, but it’s not an easy situation for the visitors.
Game: Golden State Warriors (29-7) at Dallas Mavericks (19-18)
Location: American Airlines Center
Day/Time: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
Warriors Keep on Winning
Finding negatives for the Golden State Warriors is almost impossible. They have the best defense and one of the best offenses, so they’re tough to beat against.
With news of Klay Thompson’s possible return on Sunday, everyone is excited. However, the Warriors can’t overlook games like they’re facing against Dallas.
Arguably, the Mavericks want to win this game more, so Golden State will need to match their intensity. Our only concern for the Warriors is when they face good defenses, such as when they lost to the Denver Nuggets 89-86.
If Steph Curry doesn’t get hot, the Warriors can struggle to produce points. Since losing to Denver, they have notched consecutive wins over Utah and Miami. They were quality performances, especially beating Utah as the +5-point sportsbook underdog.
The Warriors are 22-12-2 against the spread, but 1-2 in their last three games. When favored by four points, they are 3-3-1, so it’s not as impressive.
The recipe for success is containing Doncic, who now has a game under his belt. Without Doncic, the Mavericks are thin, especially with Kristaps Porzingis spending yet more time on the sidelines.
Mavericks Building Momentum
We thought it was only a matter of time before the Dallas Mavericks started to win consistently and the early signs are good.
The current winning streak is at three in a row after beating Sacramento, Oklahoma City and Denver. The 103-89 win over the Nuggets was a quality performance at home and it could tip the scales in their favor against the Warriors.
The return of Doncic inspired them on both sides of the ball. They forced Denver into 26 turnovers, and similar pressure on the Warriors would go a long way to winning this game.
Doncic scored 21 points and added 15 assists in a double-double.
“The whole game, we were pretty solid, especially our defense today was amazing,” Doncic told ESPN. “It’s not going to happen that they’re not going to make a run. And we stayed together, and we just stayed aggressive.”
Betting online markets aren’t giving the Mavericks much respect for their improved form. We expected it to be a pick’em, so getting four points at home is a generous line from bookmakers.
The Mavericks are 18-19 ATS, but they have won consecutive games against the Warriors and six of their last seven, which is an impressive statistic.
Value with Mavericks
Bettors should take the value with the Mavericks, who have dominated Golden State over the last few years.
There is little doubt the Warriors are playing better basketball, but after three straight wins, the Mavericks’ confidence levels have increased.
Doncic holds the key and if the Mavericks can force turnovers, they could get out and running.
Take the +5½ points for the home team, which could firm on game night.