The Milwaukee Bucks and Atlanta Hawks play what could be the final Eastern Conference Finals game on Saturday.
There is still no indication on whether Giannis Antetokoumpo or Trae Young will play in Game Six, which will affect the total points betting line. It’s currently at 216, so the online sportsbook is expecting a drop-off on offense.
The Bucks and Hawks played with freedom without their stars demanding the ball, so team dynamics will be interesting.
Bucks Bookend Game Five
The Bucks came out humming in Game Five, which gave them a 14-point advantage after the first quarter. They scored 36 points and then scored 32 points in the final quarter, which was enough to see the over hit comfortably.
They were able to play with freedom, and although having Giannis in the squad is a positive, it doesn’t always mean they’ll score more points. Not having the Greek Freak allowed the likes of Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis to shine, and they didn’t disappoint.
We Dogs. pic.twitter.com/Fg58QjwmgX
— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) July 2, 2021
Lopez was throwing down big dunks in his 33-point scoring effort. He went 14-18, to show doubters he’s still an elite NBA big.
“It was one of the main priorities, just to be aggressive out of the gate, be the aggressor, be more aggressive than they were,” Bucks guard Jrue Holiday told ESPN. “We felt like those games in Atlanta, whether it was energy from the crowd or whatever it was, they swung and punched us in the mouth. We didn’t want to take any chances. We wanted to come out strong and hit first.”
Bettors who took the over were concerned after the first quarter. However, the Bucks scored 29 and 26 in the second and third quarters to make it a close-run thing. That was until the Bucks scored 32 and the Hawks 34 in the fourth to blow the under out of the water.
Scoring points early and late is one way for the over to hit, but Over 216 points could be a tough cash. They should have a harder time scoring in the paint, especially in Atlanta.
Online betting markets have set a fair line, which could come down to the final possession.
Have Hawks Reached Their Ceiling?
There are serious concerns about the Hawks’ offense and where the points will come from without Young.
He could still return, but despite scoring a respectable 112 points on Thursday, the offense never clicked. Bogdan Bogdanovic scored 28 points and John Collins had 19, but the offense struggled from the opening tip and it looked clunky at the best of times.
We’re still not sure why they don’t feel Clint Capela in the paint. He had only three shots and made two. The Hawks’ offense was predicted and the Bucks knew every play that was being drawn up. There was no Young to shoot a deep three of the dribble, so the constant screens could be seen from miles away.
— Atlanta Hawks (@ATLHawks) June 30, 2021
Atlanta might have come to the end of it. Returning home will help, but we don’t see the offense improving in a couple of days. We expect the defense to improve, which is another reason why the Under 216 could be the play.
“We didn’t match their intensity, their energy,” Danilo Gallinari said. “We definitely need to start the game better.”
Totals Betting Trends
There are some positive betting trends for the under. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.
It’s also 9-2-1 in the Bucks’ last 12 road games vs a team with a winning home record. It is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last five playoff games as an underdog – NBA lines have the Bucks at +1 to win Game Six against the Hawks.
Under is 4-0 in the Hawks’ last four games following a loss and 7-1 in the Hawks’ last eight games playing on one days’ rest.
There are no notable positive betting trends for the over.
We can’t look past the Under 216 points, which is a generous line. The offense should dry up in such a tense game, so expect defense to improve.
Atlanta plays better defense at home and they should limit the Bucks to around 108 points, which should be enough to see the under cash.