Monday NBA Playoff Parlay: Trust Tatum, Celtics to Double Up vs Cavs
Our NBA picks have been consistently successful in the second half of the season, and this winning streak has seamlessly transitioned into the playoffs. Our NBA predictions were on point last week, and I’m looking to kick off the new week with a bang. Monday’s NBA schedule presents another promising opportunity to score big, with two games scheduled to tip. Our past success should give you a strong sense of confidence in our picks for tonight.
I’m going to build our parlay bet using a combination of NBA picks against the spread and NBA player props. The first game tips at 7:00 p.m. ET in Cleveland when the Boston Celtics look to take a commanding series lead against the pesky Cavaliers.
In the second game of our TNT doubleheader, we will see the Dallas Mavericks battle the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 4 as the Mavs aim to take a 3-1 series lead. Things are getting spicy in the second round, with two series’ already knotted up at 2-2.
I’m assembling a four-leg parlay. While you could certainly do a ton of your own research, the beauty is that I’ve already done that legwork for you. Let’s dive into the top NBA picks for tonight.
Monday NBA Bets
Celtics (-8) vs Cavaliers
I’m confidently rolling with the Boston Celtics again on the road in Game 4 against the Cleveland Cavaliers. We cashed on the Celtics in one of my favorite spots to fade a team in the playoffs, with the Cavs coming off a Game 7 win back in Game 1, and I expect Boston to roll to another double-digit win. The Cavaliers will likely give the Celtics their best punch early in an attempt to avoid going down 3-1 in the series heading back to Boston, but the Celtics will ultimately take care of business.
The Cavaliers had to expend a ton of energy in the playoffs against the Orlando Magic in Round 1 and have been playing from behind in most of this series in Round 2. Meanwhile, the Celtics wrapped up their first-round series early and are handling their business outside of the Game 2 loss. The Celtics cruised to victory in Game 1 and followed it up with an upset loss in Game 2. It’s nearly identical to how the first-round series with the Miami Heat went.
The Cavs were just 21-23-1 ATS at home this season, which isn’t spectacular. Boston was the fifth-best ATS team on the road at 25-19-2.
There are plenty of interesting nuggets to consider for this series. If a team won 52 games or less (Cavaliers 48 wins) and is playing a team that won 53 or more (Boston 64 wins) during the regular season, they have gone just 2-16 in the second round of the playoffs since 2014.
In this same span, teams that played two or fewer games in the first round have gone 8-5 in the second round. Over the previous eight seasons, favorites in Game 4s in the second round have gone 23-13-1 ATS! Winners of Game 3 are also 15-5 ATS over the last 20 tries. Expect the Celtics to continue their dominance in Game 4.
standing on business 😤 pic.twitter.com/jf5xEIDzXS
— Boston Celtics (@celtics) May 12, 2024
Mavericks ML (-120) vs Thunder
The Dallas Mavericks-OKC Thunder matchup could be my favorite series of the NBA playoffs this season. I expect each game to continue to be a coin flip and for the series to go six or seven. In the last 28 occurrences, road teams have gone 7-23 straight up when coming off a loss. Identical trends to the Celtics exist for the Mav tonight.
The favorites in Game 4 in the second round have gone 27-10, and the winner of Game 3 in the second round has gone 16-4 in Game 4 in the second round.
Dallas was solid as a home favorite, going 22-10, while the Thunder were just 7-9 as a road dog. These teams met four times in the regular season, with OKC taking three of four. The Mavs sat all their starters in the final matchup, so that doesn’t hold as much merit, but I expect Dallas to protect their home floor again tonight in a close battle.
When the series goes back to OKC in Game 5, that’s when we will pounce on the Thunder.
On Saturday night, we watched both series get tied up at 2-2, but I expect the Mavs and Celtics to take 3-1 series leads after tonight. The team that advances in this series will be the team that can win on the road as we get to Games 6-7. Roll with the Mavericks again in Game 4.
If you’re here, you gotta believe. @chime // #OneForDallas #MFFL pic.twitter.com/vznqyi1vM2
— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) May 12, 2024
Prop Pick: Celtics SF Jayson Tatum to Record a Double-Double (-167)
Our third leg will be Jayson Tatum to finish with a double-double in Game 4. We trusted Tatum already in this series, and he keeps delivering. Tatum has stepped up his rebounding this season and finished with double-digit rebounds in four of five games against the Miami Heat in Round 1.
Tatum recorded five consecutive double-doubles against the Cavaliers in the regular season and had a double-double in Games 1 and 3. Tatum is leading the Celtics with 15.3 rebound chances per game in this series.
He has a double-double in seven of his last 15 games without Kristaps Porzingis. The Cavs are a top-10 rebounding team with Jarrett Allen on the floor, but he is listed as questionable again, and reports suggest he won’t be available again. The Cavs did allow the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing small forwards. Trust Tatum to continue to lead his team.
Jayson Tatum says goodnight to the Cleveland Cavaliers pic.twitter.com/ayuxyN5jxV
— Shane Young (@YoungNBA) May 12, 2024
Cavaliers PF Evan Mobley to Record Double-Double (-150)
A significant reason I left out of why I prefer the Celtics again tonight is Jarrett Allen’s absence. The Cavaliers center could have been an All-Star this season, and no one would have questioned it. Cleveland has three of six playoff games without him, but his absence is being felt in the paint. Cleveland went 2-3 during the regular season when Allen sat. Allen missed practice and I expect that he will sit again tonight.
Evan Mobley has stepped up as Cleveland’s lone big left. Mobley played five games without Allen during the regular season and finished with a double-double twice. He did reach double-digit points or rebounds in the three misses.
Dating back to last season, Mobley finished with a double-double in 13 of 25 games without Allen. Mobley has double-doubles in Games 1 and 2 in this series. The price isn’t what I was hoping for, but I’m confident this leg will hit if we get confirmation that Allen sits again.
Questions of the Day
Which team in the NBA playoffs is the most profitable to bet on the road?
The most profitable playoff team to bet on the road in the NBA is the Dallas Mavericks, who have gone 30-16 ATS in away games.
Which team in the NBA playoffs is the most profitable to bet on at home?
The most profitable playoff team to bet on at home in the NBA is the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have gone 29-16 ATS in home games.