Milwaukee broke the trend of home teams winning with a 123-119 victory on Saturday. There were plenty of points put up, but the online sportsbook set the Game 6 total at a respectable 222 points for Game Six.
It could be a high-scoring game with everything on the line, so excellent NBA odds are available in prop markets.
Bucks Offense Ignites
Despite scoring only 21 points in the first quarter against the Suns on Saturday, the Bucks team total easily went over the line set by bookmakers.
It was largely due to a huge second quarter where the Bucks scored 43 points. The 16-point deficit turned into a three-point halftime lead, and they never looked back. The Bucks scored 59 second-half points to see the total soar over the number.
Three Bucks players scored 27 points or more, including Jrue Holiday (27), Khris Middleton (29) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (32). There is no stopping the Bucks when the Big Three combine for 88 points and, despite scoring 123 points in Game Five, oddsmakers hung a team total of 113½ for Game Six.
“One more to go,” Antetokounmpo told the BBC. “We’ve got to keep playing good basketball. We kept our composure, we kept fighting.
“This is the NBA Finals, so you got to give everything you got. And that’s what the team did tonight.”
Even though the offense was the key reason why the Bucks took the 3-2 series lead, it was a late defensive play that sealed the deal. Devin Booker had a chance to tie the game but ran into a double team that resulted in a Jrue Holiday steal and a Greek Freak alley-oop dunk.
“Honestly, it was great team defense,” Holiday said. “I feel like we knew Booker wanted to take that last shot and played great defense on him and made him turn his back, and he turned right into me. I guess I was just in the right place at the right time.”
The Bucks also had scoring support from Pat Connaughton, who had 14 points, and Bobby Portis who chimed in with nine points. If Milwaukee gets bench production, the total could go over.
NBA betting markets have the Bucks’ team total at 113½, which is lower than we expected. The Bucks are confident and riding a three-game winning streak, so we’re not expecting their offense to dry up in front of a raucous home crowd.
Booker Scoring at Will
Carrying the Suns’ offense on his shoulders is Devin Booker, who dropped 40 points in a losing effort on Saturday.
Take Booker out of the equation and the Suns’ offense would be struggling at the moment, but we believe their team total is lower than expected.
Bookmakers have the line at 108½, which has been covered by the Suns in three of their last five games. They scored 100 and 103 points in two losses in Milwaukee, but we expect the offense to fire up in a do-or-die situation.
Doing the damage is Booker, who came up with a costly turnover in the dying stages. However, he was knocking down important fourth-quarter shots, and there was nothing wrong with the Suns’ offense in Game Five.
Chris Paul had 21 points on 9-15 shooting and Deandre Ayton had 20 points. All five starters scored double digits, and scoring 119 points would win most NBA Finals contests. However, the Suns might need to score around 116 points to stay competitive.
“We’ve got to win one game to put them back on the plane. That’s it,” Suns coach Monty Williams said. “And you have to have that determination that you’re willing to do whatever it takes to put them back on the plane.”
We expect the Suns to come out firing and that could see the points total go over the line. Given the offense we have seen lately, the combined total of 222 points seems on the low side.
Suns vs Bucks Totals Betting Trends
Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings, which is a serious push for the Over 222 for Game Six.
It’s also 5-1-1 in the Suns last seven overall and 5-1-1 in the Bucks last seven overall, so there are many positives for over backers.
However, the Under is 3-0-1 in the Suns last four games as an underdog and as a road underdog. It’s also 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings in Milwaukee.
The majority of Suns vs Bucks totals betting trends favor the total going over.
Suns vs Bucks Totals Pick
The best value in totals betting markets is the Bucks’ team total over 113½. The offense is clicking and we expect the line to move on game day.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are more confident scorers after a big Game Five, so they should be due for another high-scoring game.
Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to score in the paint, and we think Game Six will be more about offense than defense. For that reason, we’re confident the Bucks can score 114 points or more and close out the series in style.