Luka Doncic is set to return for the Mavericks and it hasn’t been missed by NBA betting odds. The Mavericks have firmed into -3½ favorites with the help of home-court advantage.
- Game: Denver Nuggets (18-16) at Dallas Mavericks (18-18)
- Location: American Airlines Center
- Day/Time: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
- TV: BSN
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks
Nuggets Finding Gold
The Denver Nuggets have rediscovered their best form with recent wins over the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.
The best win of the three came against the Warriors in a torrid defensive battle. Scoring an 89-86 victory didn’t showcase their offensive prowess, but defense is typically the reason why Denver wins games.
“I couldn’t be more proud of our guys, “Nuggets coach Michael Malone told ESPN. “I thought Will Barton, down the stretch, made a couple of big, big plays.
“Nikola (Jokic) having 18 rebounds, 22 points and making a key, key play down the stretch is why he’s a great player. You need those types of plays to pull out wins like this.”
Denver allows 104.4 points per game, which is fourth-best. The Nuggets also allowed only 100 points in a 103-100 win over the Clippers, so knocking down shots could be tough for the Mavericks.
A concern for bettors is the Denver’s spread record. The Nuggets are 15-19 against the spread, but they are 5-1 ATS in their last six when playing on one day of rest.
Winning three consecutive road games does wonders for confidence levels, but fatigue could be a factor.
Bettors could see value with the +3½ line, which opened at +1.
Mavericks Welcome Superstar
Getting Doncic back in the starting five is crucial for the Dallas Mavericks’ success.
He might be on limited minutes, but he should have an immediate impact on a team needing a shot in the arm.
The Mavericks return home after a four-game road trip where they went 2-2. A 112-96 win over the Sacramento Kings is a good form guide and having Doncic back should provide them with some consistency.
Dallas has been impressive on defense with 104.4 points allowed, but putting the ball through the basket has been troublesome. The Mavericks rank outside the top 20 in all major offensive categories, including 26th in points and 25th in three-point percentage.
They have covered six spreads in their last 10 games, and because of the poor offense, the under is 7-1 in their last eight home games.
The sportsbook is taking steady money for the Mavericks, who opened as the one-point favorite. It wouldn’t be a shock to see the line continue to shift out.
Mavericks for the Win
Dallas is a team that can go one a lengthy winning run and the news of Doncic returning could be enough.
We don’t expect Doncic to score 35-plus points, but his presence on the floor should do wonders for the home side.
Take the Mavericks to cover the spread and potentially start a winning run at home.