Pacers vs Thunder Prediction, Picks and 2025 NBA Finals Odds, Monday 6/16: Bet Pacers ATS, Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points

I think it’s safe to say Game 4 took us all by surprise, with the Thunder pulling the carpet out from under the Pacers late in the fourth. With the series headed back to Oklahoma, the NBA odds are leaning Thunder.

But before you ride that wave, grab your notepad – or whatever you use – because fading Oklahoma City on the spread still feels right. Let’s look at these NBA Finals odds and break it down.

Pacers vs Thunder NBA Finals Prediction

Game 4 had the Pacers’ name written all over it – until they couldn’t buy a shot in the fourth. They didn’t come out flat, but that Game 3 intensity was missing. Now, back on their home floor, I expect the Thunder to lay down the law and take control of the series. Don’t get me wrong, the Pacers will try to keep up – but for my NBA game predictions, I’m riding with Oklahoma City outright.

Score Prediction: Thunder 115, Pacers 108

Pacers vs Thunder Best NBA Player Props Today

• Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points (-117)

For my first NBA player prop pick, I’m taking Alex Caruso to score over 10.5 points. He may be known for his defense, but he’s been a silent killer this series, dropping 11+ in three of four games. With the Thunder needing to get creative to crack the Pacers’ defense, Caruso’s spark off the bench could be key. Oklahoma City needs every edge – and I’m betting their sixth man delivers another double-digit night.

Bet on  Alex Caruso Over 10.5 Points (-117)

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Threes (-110)

We know the ball will live in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s hands – but I don’t see him raining 3-pointers at any point in this game. He’s averaging just 1.5 triples per game in this series, and it’s just not his bread and butter. Gilgeous-Alexander does his damage in the midrange and paint. For my NBA player props, I’m backing him under 1.5 made threes. This one’s as close to a guarantee as it gets.

Bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 1.5 Threes (-110)

• T.J. McConnell Over 7.5 Points (-125)

Indiana will need all the energy they can get from the bench, and who better than the energizer battery himself, PG T.J. McConnell? McConnell’s been a lock in my NBA expert picks, cashing in on this prop, scoring over 7.5 points in four straight games. With the Pacers needing energy, intensity, shot-making, and quality ball control, I’m confident McConnell will stretch this streak to five games with over 7.5 points.

Bet on T.J. McConnell Over 7.5 Points (-125)

Pacers vs Thunder Moneyline Pick

The Pacers did what they could defensively in Game 4, but they lacked the intensity and efficiency the Thunder maintained until the final buzzer. Look, I expect Indiana to come out hungry and try to make up for last game, but I don’t see them strong-arming the Thunder on their home floor – especially since their defense has struggled to limit Gilgeous-Alexander’s touches. My final take? Ride with the Thunder on the moneyline.

Bet on Thunder ML (-420)

Pacers vs Thunder Spread Pick

It’s no surprise the Thunder are heavy favorites after Game 3, but this feels like one of those NBA matchups where the score stays closer than expected. The Pacers earned the nickname ‘comeback kids’ this postseason for a reason, and while I don’t see them winning, 9.5 points is a big line to cover – especially in the Finals. I’m confident they’ll keep it within 10 points. Bet the Pacers to cover the NBA spread.

Bet on Indiana +9.5

Pacers vs Thunder Over/Under Pick

Recent games have shown both teams struggle with ball security – Game 4 had 32 turnovers, split evenly. Will the ball turn into a hot potato again? No way. But with the Thunder back at home, I like them setting the tone and their defense deciding this one, making life tough for the Pacers’ offense. Each team will have their moments scoring, but I don’t see this game notching 224 points. Bet online for the under.

Bet on Pacers vs Thunder Over 224.5

Get More NBA Game Picks, Expert Analysis, Best Bets and Rumors

• Thunder vs Pacers NBA Finals Parlay Picks for, Monday, 06/16
• Thunder Crush Pacers in Game 2 While ABC Tries to Fix Broadcast
• The Pacers Are Two Wins Away From the NBA’s Greatest Upset

Pacers vs Thunder How to Watch

• Game: Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2) vs Indiana Pacers (2-2)
• Date/Time: Monday, June 16, 8:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• Pacers vs Thunder Live Stream: NBA League Pass

Get the latest Pacers vs Thunder stats here

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Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.

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