The in-form Miami Heat look to extend their winning record to four when welcoming the Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday.
Miami is currently one game back of Atlanta, so there is still plenty to play for over the concluding stages of the regular season. Philadelphia is 1½ games ahead of Brooklyn, so it’s looking to stay on top.
The online sportsbook has Philadelphia as slight favorites, but expect money to come for the home team.
Miami Solidifying Position
The Heat have looked excellent over the last two weeks and they’re one of the hottest NBA teams.
They have rattled off seven wins in their last 10 games, including three in a row against Minnesota and Boston. Back-to-back wins over the Celtics were top-notch and they’re now only one-half game back of Atlanta for the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference.
Beating Philadelphia would send a huge statement for the Heat and we believe they should be favored to win based on recent form. Miami will have to do it without Victor Oladipo, who will undergo season-ending surgery.
The Heat are back 🔥
Miami has clinched its playoff spot! pic.twitter.com/jwdH61nwm6
— NBA TV (@NBATV) May 12, 2021
However, that has been the case for most of the season for the Heat. And with Tyler Herro heating up, they are well-positioned to make another deep playoff run. Teammate Duncan Robinson is happy to have him back.
“I think it’s sustainable because we’ve all seen it before,” Robinson told HeatNation. “Just the biggest thing is I, personally, just love seeing him play with that kind of grit and confidence. I don’t think that it necessarily wavered.
“But obviously it helps when the ball goes in and it kind of compounds it all. I tell him all the time, ‘Be a killer. Go be a killer out there.’”
Herro is one reason why Miami could progress to the Conference finals. His spot-up shot is on fire and he has the length to handle the tough defense of the Philadelphia 76ers.
76ers Could Be Without Embiid
MVP candidate Joel Embiid is listed as questionable after missing the Indiana Pacers contest due to illness.
Philadelphia isn’t the same team without Embiid, so his availability will dramatically change the NBA betting line. If he’s good to go, expect the line to stay firm, but if he’s out, Miami will close significantly.
His absence was notable in the 76ers’ loss to Indiana. They scored just 94 points, well below their 113.6-point average. They weren’t able to find any rhythm and although still a good defensive team, without Embiid the offense is sorely lacking.
If Embiid returns, Philadelphia will be much harder to beat. He averages 29.2 points and leads the team with 10.7 rebounds. His chemistry with Ben Simmons is terrific and the 76ers need both players on the floor to have any chance.
Philadelphia has quite a few players listed on injured reserve, including lock-down defender Matisse Thybulle, spot-up shooter Shake Milton and Furkan Korkmaz.
76ers vs Heat Betting Trends
The 76ers have a 36-30-3 against the spread record, which is slightly better than Miami’s 32-35-2.
It’s not surprising given their win/loss records and Miami has been much better over the last 10 games. The Heat have covered in five of their last six games, with the only non-cover coming when losing 127-113 to the Dallas Mavericks.
Philadelphia has been a touch inconsistent of late, covering just three of its last six games. Two of the losses resulted in straight-up wins, so they weren’t bad performances, but the lines were set at double digits.
76ers vs Heat Game Pick
Bettors should lock in the value for the Miami Heat as soon as possible. We expect the line to move, especially if Embiid is missing in action.
Even if Embiid plays, we’re confident with the Heat. They are playing excellent basketball and they have many talented shooters that can get hot.
If Herro has a night off, Robinson can catch fire from the outside. The same goes for Jimmy Butler, so there are many weapons at the Heat’s disposal.
Being at home, where the Heat are 20-15, is another bonus and we’ll take the underdog odds while they’re available.
