Undermanned Suns Sizable Underdogs
The Phoenix Suns have perhaps their biggest task this season as they visit the Eastern Conference-leading Miami Heat on the second night of a back-to-back. The Suns will be without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker. As expected, the NBA’s Las Vegas odds place the Heat as a significant favorite as they move to sweep the Suns this season.
Suns vs Heat Game Information
- Game: Phoenix Suns (52-13) at Miami Heat (44-22)
- Location: FTX Arena
- Day/Time: Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Live Stream: NBA Game Pass
Suns’ Resilience Being Tested
The Phoenix Suns have cruised through the NBA for the past two seasons thanks mainly to staying healthy. That hasn’t been the case lately as the team lost Paul and are now potentially without Booker and Cam Johnson. Getting no rest against the red-hot Heat won’t help, either.
Phoenix has already lost three games in its last six without Paul (2-4 against the spread) and, in comparison, the Suns lost that many in their last previous 25 contests. Without Paul, the Suns’ efficiency drops. Their offensive rating dips from 117.9 to 111 and their turnover percent rises from 11.6 percent to 15.4.
Cam Payne has started in Paul’s place and has done an admirable job running the offense, averaging 10 assists, but at the expense of shooting 39.5 percent from the field. Phoenix has also fallen out of the top 10 in defensive rating. As it stands, Phoenix is tough to bet online even as underdogs.
Heat Running Away in East
The Miami Heat are no strangers to being slowed down by injuries. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry each have all missed at least 15 games. Tyler Herro also missed 13 and Victor Oladipo is just coming back from a one-year layoff.
LOOK AT VICTOR OLADIPO. pic.twitter.com/MmUNxjeaZS
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) March 8, 2022
But the Heat survived the injury bug and are now peaking, having won six of their last seven games with the only loss (which they still covered) a one-pointer against the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. Other than the Celtics, the Heat have been the most dominant team since February.
Miami has also been killing it on the NBA lines with a 60 percent cover rate, the best in the East. Look for the Heat for online gambling while they are this hot. They have a soft schedule this March as they take on non-playoff squads or teams like Phoenix, which is decimated by injuries.
Suns vs Heat Head-to-Head
The Phoenix Suns have beaten the Miami Heat in three of their last four meetings. In their last 10 meetings, however, the Heat lead 6-4 where the total has gone over seven times. The last time Miami swept the season series from the Suns was in 2017-18.
Suns vs Heat Prediction
The Miami Heat should beat and cover against the Phoenix Suns. Miami has the best spread record (12-4) when it has a rest advantage while Phoenix is just 4-6 ATS when on the second night of a back-to-back. Erik Spoelstra is also the better coach with a team that goes nine players deep.
Phoenix may get scrappy here as Monty Williams will keep his players motivated. But over 48 minutes, Miami will outlast Phoenix and run away with this game. Betting the under on the total is also a sharp bet as it has cashed on 62.5 percent (6-10) of Miami’s games where it has a rest advantage.