Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds for NBA Semifinals Game 4

After edging the Oklahoma City Thunder in overtime on Friday night, the Denver Nuggets now have the chance to put the NBA’s top seed in a corner. The Nuggets are underdogs on the NBA odds tonight despite outlasting their younger counterparts twice in the first three games. Oklahoma City was outshot from deep and saw its MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, have a subpar outing. Analytics may favor Oklahoma City, but we cannot bet against Denver given its grit and championship mettle.

JOKIC AND THE NUGGETS PUT UP A FIGHT AND WIN AT HOME 🔥

NUGGETS LEAD 2-1 👀 pic.twitter.com/AoGImnjRRb

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) May 10, 2025

Thunder vs Nuggets Semifinals Prediction

Our mind tells us that the Thunder will bounce back with a vengeance and blow Denver out like it did in Game 2 of this series. The Thunder have covered 60% of their games (9-6-2) following a loss, while Denver has only won 56.4% of its NBA games (31-24) after a victory. Either Oklahoma City blows Denver out quickly, or the Nuggets win another close contest. Let’s go with the latter.

Nuggets 112, Thunder 110c

Thunder vs Nuggets Best Player Props Today

• Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 32.5 Points (-110)

Gilgeous-Alexander is “only” averaging 28 points in the playoffs and at an effective field goal rate of just 47.4%. These are below his usual numbers. But the betting lines have not adjusted, and oddsmakers expect him to go off for 32+ again. Nah. The first of our NBA player prop bets is that he’s held under 32 points for the fifth time in eight playoff games.

• Nuggets C Nikola Jokic Over 50.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (-114)

Unless the NBA news today shows Nikola Jokic dealing with injuries, we’ll bet on him to have a monster game. Jokic has been held to 18.5 points and six assists on 34.1% shooting in his last two games. He’s just catching a breather and will likely go over his combo props even if they are quite high.

For so many years, the brilliance of Nikola Jokić has masked some of Denver’s roster flaws.

On Friday night, Jokić was truly picked up by his teammates. pic.twitter.com/vIfXA3L0qu

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) May 10, 2025

• Nuggets F Aaron Gordon Under 2.5 Assists (-110)

Aaron Gordon has become the “Big Shot Bob” (Robert Horry) of these playoffs. But what’s up with his assists prop? Gordon is listed at 2.5 assists, but averages just 2.2 per game. He’s had three games of five assists each in the postseason, but in the other seven, he had two or fewer. Bet under his assists prop.

Bet These Thunder vs Nuggets Player Props Here

Thunder vs Nuggets Moneyline Pick

Let’s take the underdog shot on Denver at these odds. We give the Nuggets better than an implied probability of 31.4%. This team has won an NBA title and has a three-time MVP on its roster. Denver is not only a shrewd bet on the NBA Finals odds but also to take a 3-1 series edge at home on Sunday.

Bet on Denver Nuggets ML +218

Thunder vs Nuggets Spread Pick

It’s hard to envision Denver getting starched at home. The Nuggets are 30-16 at Ball Arena and are 4-3 against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs. They are also 4-2 ATS in their last six games against Oklahoma City, while the Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Given their forms, we have to bet Denver ATS.

Bet on Nuggets +6.5 (-110) vs Thunder

Thunder vs Nuggets Over/Under Pick

The Nuggets had had five straight games go over the total heading to Game 3, so the oddsmakers set a whopping 232 for the total. That went under, so the total has now decreased to 227.5. But our NBA betting analysis reveals how elite these teams are offensively, especially if Jokic returns to form. Go over as both teams hit the 110-point mark.

Bet on Thunder vs Nuggets Over 227.5 (-110)

Thunder vs Nuggets How to Watch

• Game: Oklahoma City Thunder (1-2) vs Denver Nuggets (2-1)
• Date/Time: Sunday, May 11, 3:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Thunder vs Nuggets Live Stream: NBA League Pass

Get the latest Thunder vs Nuggets betting trends here.

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• Thunder vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds for NBA Semifinals Game 4

Question of the Day

Odds and information are accurate at the time of writing. Please check with official sources for the latest updates before placing any bets.